15.4 Million Vehicles Would Exceed 1978 Record : GM’s Smith Projects Record Sales in ’86

General Motors Chairman Roger Smith predicted Monday that U.S. sales will reach 15.4 million vehicles in the 1985 model year, surpassing 1978’s record 15.3 million units.

It would be only the second time in history that U.S. car and truck sales have exceeded 15 million units.

Smith told reporters here that auto makers--domestic and foreign--”have a real shot at surpassing 15 million units” in the dawning 1986 model year--and “perhaps another record if everything works the way we hope it will.”

He added, however, that a continued high growth rate for the industry depends upon “the right things working in Washington, like the resolution of the tax bill and the trade and budget deficits.”

Smith’s outlook was decidedly sunnier than that expressed by international auto makers surveyed by the Reuters news service as they gathered in Frankfurt, West Germany, for the 51st International Motor Show opening Thursday.

See Slowdown in Sales

Reuters found the foreign manufacturers expecting U.S. sales to slow significantly in the next model year. As a result, the foreign firms said, they are emphasizing marketing strategies to focus on markets closer to home while also striving to reduce production costs.

With the U.S. auto market enjoying its third year of expansion after a devastating recession, the agreement between the United States and Japan to lift import quotas is likely in the longer term to cut the market share of the American “big four”--GM, Ford, Chrysler and American Motors.

In addition, the trend among foreign auto makers toward building U.S. plants to avoid future quotas is expected to continue and strengthen, Reuters said. By 1990, U.S. industry analysts believe, Japanese production inside the United States could surpass 1 million cars a year, slicing U.S. makers’ market share to 60% from about 75% now.