Dual Finish in District 7 Puts GOP in Bind

Confronted with the seemingly blissful picture of an all-Republican runoff in the 7th District San Diego City Council race, local GOP power brokers are finding that winning elections sometimes can be as troublesome as losing them.

The surprising one-two finish by Republicans Judy McCarty and Jeanette Roache, respectively, in Tuesday’s 7th District primary guarantees that the GOP will retain the council seat vacated by Dick Murphy’s resignation in June to become a Municipal Court judge. However, the GOP sweep also has created a possibly thorny problem for Republicans--namely, how to avoid an expensive and divisive intraparty fight that, regardless of the outcome, will result in a Republican victory.

In short, with two Republicans in the race, what’s a good Republican to do? Coalesce behind one candidate in an attempt to preserve financial resources, though at the considerable risk of alienating the other contender and her supporters? Hedge all bets by contributing to both candidates, knowing that doing so neutralizes the impact of the money? Or stay on the sidelines and simply say, “May the best woman win”?

As political problems go, that dilemma is one that most politicians--certainly local Democratic Party officials, who can find absolutely nothing to be happy about in the primary results--would love to endure. Nevertheless, the situation is a ticklish one that has touched off at least a temporary name-that-slogan battle between the McCarty and Roache camps.

“You don’t go out and buy two identical pairs of shoes,” said Dan Greenblat, the administrative assistant to Rep. Bill Lowery (R-San Diego) and an adviser to McCarty. In other words, Greenblat argues that it makes little sense--political or economic--for local Republican movers and shakers to work at cross-purposes in a race in which, from one perspective, the party cannot lose.

Roache, however, has a rhetorical salvo of her own: “Potholes and public safety don’t have (party) labels.” For that reason, Roache argues, local Republican leaders are unlikely to throw the bulk of their support to either candidate.

“It’s my belief that the true power brokers in this city are the voters of San Diego,” Roache said. “This is supposed to be a non-partisan race, and I think it would be best if it remained that way. I don’t expect the people who have made commitments to us to bail out, just as I think Judy’s supporters will stay with her. This is healthy competition.”

Even most top GOP leaders concede that the McCarty-Roache runoff was one contingency they did not anticipate in the contest in the 7th District, located in northeastern San Diego. Well-known Democrat Evonne Schulze, who lost two earlier council races, was a heavy favorite to secure one of the two finalists’ slots in the primary. But her third-place primary finish, with 26% of the vote, eliminated Schulze from the race, as McCarty and Roache received 38% and 28% of the ballots, respectively.

Republican officials were so certain that Schulze would qualify for the runoff that they had scheduled a unity breakfast for last Thursday at which the unsuccessful GOP candidate was expected to rally behind her fellow Republican. Instead, the breakfast turned into a backslapping celebration where party leaders began to ponder how to handle their abundance of riches in the race.

Greenblat, one of the top local Republican campaign strategists, succinctly expressed the feelings of many party leaders.

“I hate to be in a situation where I have two friends vying for a seat,” Greenblat said. “But the fact is, choices have to be made and will be made.”

Many Republican activists regard the Roache-McCarty race “as a win-win situation,” Greenblat said.

“Here’s a case where you have two Republicans who both are philosophically compatible and acceptable to most of the people who usually get involved in these races,” Greenblat added. “As a result, they’re asking themselves, ‘Does it really make sense to fund two $200,000 campaigns?”’

Greenblat and many others answer that question in the negative, causing some speculation that the runoff campaign might not be as expensive as it likely would have been had Schulze been on the November ballot.

“It may be there there will be more emphasis on volunteers and neighborhood, grass-roots organization than money,” said Byron Wear, a McCarty aide.

Roache argues that many average voters are “turned off by all this talk about political power brokers deciding what’s going to happen.”

“This is a decision that should be left to voters,” said Roache, who is on leave from her job as an aide to Assemblywoman Sunny Mojonnier (R-Encinitas). “I don’t think any of our Republican officials are going to do do anything to jeopardize the progress the party’s made in recent years.”

Similarly, McCarty said she believes that the debate over what political movers and shakers will or will not do this fall “cheapens the campaign.”

“I don’t agree with those who say it doesn’t make a difference what happens in November,” said McCarty, a San Carlos community activist who resigned as district representative for Assemblyman Larry Stirling (R-San Diego) when she entered the race.

“Just because we’re two R’s doesn’t mean we’re identical,” McCarty added. “The district certainly thought it made a difference. We’re different people with different thoughts and different approaches.”

Although the two Republicans have similar positions on most major issues, McCarty generally is regarded as more moderate than Roache.

Greenblat argues that the role that local political activists ultimately take in the race “will probably be more of a business decision than a political one.”

“As a contributor, you hope to have an influence on the outcome of an election,” Greenblat said. “People are questioning whether that’s the case here. I think what you’ll see is some contributors who believe in their candidate, do or die, continuing to give. But I think you’ll also see a lot of smart money just staying out of it.”