A Look at the Politics of ’86

The 1986 Senate election is more than a year away, but decisions are being made now that will have a major impact on the makeup of the Senate starting in January of 1987. The decisions involve who’s running and--often just as important--who’s not. There have been some mild surprises and one of those occurred this past week when veteran Republican Sen. Charles McC. Mathias of Maryland announced he would not seek a fourth term.

There is much at stake, for Republicans now hold a 53-47 majority and Democrats believe that 1986 presents the best opportunity for years to come to regain control of the upper house. They need a net gain of four seats to win command. Thirty-four seats will be up next year and 22 of them are held by Republicans, including those of the 16 freshman GOP senators elected in the first Reagan landslide of 1980.

In contrast, the Democrats’ list of 12 open seats includes a number held by veterans such as California’s Alan Cranston.

Early on, Democrats thought winning control would be easy because of the vulnerability of some of the 16 GOP first-termers. A number of them were considered to be relatively weak candidates who lucked into office on the heels of the Reagan sweep. But a good number of the newcomers have turned out to be astute politicians who have worked diligently to solidify their political bases at home.

Thus, in recent months, Republicans were feeling better about their odds of retaining Senate control. But now Democratic hopes have been buoyed by three GOP retirement announcements: Sens. Paul Laxalt of Nevada, John P. East of North Carolina and Mathias. Incumbency certainly is no assurance of victory, but only five sitting senators have been turned out of office in the last two Senate elections. Almost any time an incumbent retires, the prospect for the opposing party to pick up the seat suddenly become brighter.

Laxalt would have been almost a certain winner in Nevada. East might have had his problems, but his most formidable potential challenger, former Gov. James Hunt, already had declared he would not oppose East. And Mathias has been virtually unbeatable in Democratic Maryland because of his moderate-to-liberal voting record.

But the Democratic prospects have been hit by the retirement of veterans too: Sens. Thomas Eagleton of Missouri and Russell B. Long of Louisiana. Republican believe they have an excellent chance in both states. Also, it is becoming apparent that Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado may not run again in order to concentrate on running for President in 1988.

Democrats also have been disappointed by the number of major party figures in recent years, most often popular and successful governors, who have decided not to seek Senate seats. For instance, Democrats might have a strong chance of winning the Arizona seat of retiring Sen. Barry Goldwater if Gov. Bruce Babbitt were running. But Babbitt has said he won’t and Republicans seem likely to hold the Senate seat. Likewise, Colorado Gov. Richard D. Lamm, stepping down after his third term, has ruled out a Senate race.

Even if Republicans maintain control, the nature of the Senate will be changed by the retirements. Goldwater’s departure leaves the chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee open, and Mathias’ retirement may open the way for Sen. Strom Thurmond (D-S.C.) to relinquish the chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee to take Armed Services. Thurmond had remained at Judiciary to block the ascension of Mathias, whose record on civil liberties did not endear him to his more conservative colleagues.

There are bound to be some more surprises in the Senate contests right through election night Nov. 4, 1986. Stay tuned. It should be a good show--and will affect the course of the nation for years to come.