Angry Hussein Expected to Pressure Arafat

Angered by a series of embarrassing setbacks, King Hussein of Jordan is expected to present what amounts to an ultimatum to Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat on the future of their relations, according to Western diplomats and Jordanian officials.

According to these sources, at a minimum Hussein will demand that Arafat renounce terrorism and make a qualified acceptance of Israel’s right to exist.

If Arafat refuses, Hussein is believed to be ready to freeze his relationship with the PLO, eight months after the Jordanian monarch and Arafat agreed to pursue a joint initiative to seek a peaceful solution to the Middle East problem.

‘Walk the Plank’

“The king is going to make Arafat walk the plank,” said one diplomat.

Hussein flew to Baghdad on Saturday to consult with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who has become one of the king’s closest allies in the Arab world. According to officials here, the primary reason for the trip is to secure the Iraqi leader’s agreement to foreclose Iraq as a possible refuge for Arafat, should relations between Jordan and the PLO reach a deadlock.

“Hussein has accumulated a lot of capital with the Iraqis because of his support in their war against Iran,” one diplomat said. “He’s calling in his markers now to close Arafat’s last bolt hole.”

The king is expected to meet with the PLO leader in Amman on Monday. He has said publicly that he is “very unhappy” about the current situation, and both Hussein and Arafat have made clear their desire for a “reassessment” of relations.

Peace Conference Sought

Hussein is hoping to arrange an international peace conference that would include all of the parties to the Middle East conflict as well as the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. He no longer appears to attach importance to arranging preliminary talks with the United States and a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation.

Officials believe that while attempting to bring maximum pressure to bear upon Arafat, it is unlikely the king will terminate his relationship with the PLO leader entirely.

“It’s clear to the king that without us, he has no mechanism,” said Khaled Hassan, a close aide to Arafat, who met with the king last week. “And without him, we have no visa to the West.”

The king’s dilemma was artfully summarized by a leader from the Israeli-occupied West Bank, who visited Jordan to gauge the mood before the Arafat visit.

“The king can’t talk to Israel without some credible Palestinians,” he said, “and no Palestinian would be credible in the eyes of the Arab world, not to mention among Palestinians, without the endorsement of the PLO. And the PLO means Arafat.”

PLO Pressure Points

While canceling his Feb. 11 agreement with Arafat does not seem to be a viable option, the king can put pressure on Arafat in a number of ways.

He has already begun a rapprochement with Syria, where a rival wing of the PLO stands as a constant reminder to Arafat that he is not irreplaceable. Reports that Jordan has quietly asked a number of prominent PLO officials to leave Amman give currency to speculation that the king may prefer reducing the PLO’s role here to that of ousting the organization entirely.

Speaking somewhat ominously to a group of reporters last week, Hussein noted that the Arabs in 1974 recognized the PLO “as the sole legitimate representative of the people of Palestine. I hope they live up to their great responsibilities in that regard.”

Nonetheless, according to Jordanian officials, the government is not seriously considering replacing the PLO as a negotiating partner with other Palestinians, such as West Bank leaders.

“The option is not different Palestinians, but different political options,” said one well-placed Jordanian. “We are really at the point of full reassessment.”

Arafat’s Options Limited

Viewed from the Palestinian perspective, Arafat does not have many options either. He has lost all of his military bases, and the hijacking of the Italian cruise liner Achille Lauro caused a good deal of diplomatic fallout with the governments of Italy, Tunisia and Egypt.

“We suffered a real setback, but I think it is only temporary,” said Hassan, who is information director of the PLO.

With Jordan, Egypt and Iraq coordinating policy and Cairo and Amman clearly angry with Arafat, the PLO leader may finally be cornered into making what he considers unpopular concessions.

In addition to the recent uproar over terrorism, the king was most upset with the PLO when a planned meeting between a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation and British Foreign Secretary Geoffrey Howe collapsed.

Statement at Issue

The meeting was canceled by the British after a press statement approved by both sides in advance was found to be objectionable to Mohammed Milhem, one of the two PLO delegates at the talks. When the PLO initially blamed the British for the incident, Hussein defended London’s role as honorable.

Officials believe that Hussein may now insist that Arafat himself sign the statement that Milhem found objectionable in London.

Among its key provisions, the statement said that members of the joint delegation “confirmed their opposition to all forms of terrorism and violence from whatever sources.”

U.N. Resolutions Endorsed

It also endorsed Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, which explicitly support Israel’s right to exist within secure borders. The statement also mentioned the right of Israel to exist within its “1967 borders,” a point the PLO found particularly objectionable.

At PLO insistence, the statement also contained a provision supporting the right of Palestinians to have self-determination, which is generally interpreted as meaning the right to have an independent state.

If Arafat agrees to the statement, it is not clear if it will be released immediately or allowed to leak out in a more face-saving manner.

In addition, there has been speculation that the Jordanians might demand the expulsion from the PLO executive committee of Abul Abbas, the leader of the Palestine Liberation Front whom the United States has accused of masterminding the terrorist operation that led to the Achille Lauro hijacking.