Guatemala’s Message

The election of a moderate civilian as president of Guatemala is a hopeful sign for both that nation and the rest of Central America, but it will have an even more salutary effect if the Reagan Administration offers Guatemala economic aid rather than military assistance as a reward for its peaceful transition to democracy.

Vinicio Cerezo Arevalo, a Christian Democrat, was elected Sunday with an impressive 69% of the popular vote. Just as impressive, however, was the fact that Cerezo was even alive to run for office. Ever since a right-wing coup inspired by the Central Intelligence Agency overthrew a leftist president in 1954, life has been dangerous for even moderately progressive politicians in Guatemala. Many Christian Democrats have been killed in political violence, and Cerezo himself has survived at least three assassination attempts.

A politician who has survived that long in a hostile environment is unlikely to make any drastic moves once in office. For the foreseeable future, real power in Guatemala will likely remain where it has been for the last 30 years--with the military. Guatemala’s generals would not have allowed a civilian to become president if they thought he would hold them accountable for all that they did while in power, especially the harsh suppression of a guerrilla insurgency in Guatemala’s highlands. That war was waged with a brutal efficiency that left thousands of Indians dead and thousands more displaced from their native villages.

The Reagan Administration would reward the Guatemalan generals by renewing U.S. military aid, which they brusquely rejected in 1977 rather than listen to human-rights lectures by the Carter Administration. That would be a mistake, for giving in now would only convince the generals that they were right all along--not just in rejecting U.S. advice but also in waging their harsh counter-insurgency campaign.

Cerezo ran for office saying that Guatemala needed loans and other financial aid to revive its economy and to begin dealing with the deep social problems that caused its political violence in the first place. That message clearly won the support of an overwhelming majority of Guatemala’s voters. Washington should heed it, too.