Paradox in Manila

The Philippine Supreme Court has rejected all legal challenges to the constitutionality of the Feb. 7 snap election called by President Ferdinand E. Marcos, leaving the challengers elated. What explains this paradox? It stems from the simple fact that Marcos’ opponents, led by Corazon Aquino, are now convinced that they stand a real chance to win at the polls and end two decades of Marcos’ increasingly corrupt rule. Had the challengers won their case before the court, filed before the political opposition succeeded in uniting behind a single strong ticket, that prospect would have been at best delayed, at worst indefinitely denied.

Clearing the legal roadblocks to the election does not assure either that voting will take place or that it will be held in an atmosphere free of intimidation and fraud. The powers that Marcos holds and the organization that he commands give him plenty of opportunity to cancel the balloting or rig its results. Certainly the incentive to do so is there. Most political power in the Philippines is in the hands of those who have profited greatly under Marcos, and who almost surely would suffer if he were turned out. That includes Marcos most of all. Mrs. Aquino has already said that if elected president she will seek to have Marcos prosecuted for the 1983 assassination of her husband.

The obstacles that stand in the way of a free election worry the U.S. Congress and the State Department. A bipartisan commission sent to the Philippines by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has reported in detail how Marcos can deny a fair campaign or an honest vote count. Warnings about a strong U.S. response to any such fraud have been issued. Meanwhile, Mrs. Aquino continues to better Marcos in the size and enthusiasm of the crowds that she is drawing. That’s an encouraging sign, if a fair vote is permitted. But it could also serve as a further signal to the Marcos crowd that it will have to count on something other than popular support if it hopes to retain power.