Why All the Dropouts?

By the time a child is in the ninth grade, it is possible to start making predictions about potential college success--and for black and Latino students in California schools those predictions all too often aren’t rosy. A new study by the California Post-secondary Education Commission once again documents the points at which minority youngsters get off the track that could lead them to higher education. It raises questions that California must answer if it is to ensure open access to its campuses.

One-fourth of California’s ninth-graders don’t complete their high-school studies. The dropout rate is far higher for blacks and Latinos than for whites. Fewer black and Latino students than whites and Asians graduate from high-school college-preparatory courses. And fewer qualify for admission to the state’s four-year universities. For example, only 838 of the nearly 23,300 black public high-school graduates in 1983 were in the top 12.5% of their class and eligible for regular admission to UC.

Asian students are most likely to graduate from UC within five years, followed by whites. In the California State University system, the report says, blacks and Latinos graduate at substantially lower rates--in part because many of them enter on special admission programs that in effect haven’t been very successful.

But none of this is news, although it remains a highly disturbing reality. What is news is the finding that even among the minority students who qualify for regular admission to the University of California, fewer than half attend. Less than one-third of eligible Latino students decide to go to a UC campus; they are more likely to go to Cal State or a community college. More than 60% of Asian and 35% of white students who were eligible elected to attend UC.

There are a host of reasons why students make the choices that they make: parents’ education, occupation and income, cultural attitudes. Preparation is a factor as well, and many minority students have attended schools that simply aren’t educating them as well as schools in affluent areas do. The vibes that universities send out to students play a role as well. Will they be comfortable there? Are there faculty members to whom they can take their problems?

The report asks critical questions that have been asked before: What more can the state do to reduce its dropout rate? What else must be done to improve preparation so that all students, but especially those of underrepresented minorities, can handle rigorous college work? Why are both regularly and specially admitted students dropping out of Cal State at alarmingly high rates? What equal-opportunity programs that the state has undertaken in the last 20 years have proved most effective?

And one of the report’s last questions is its most loaded question: “What are the consequences for both students and the state that so many of those who currently enroll in college drop out” before finishing degrees?

There are no answers here. But the deeply distressing statistics and the questions that they raise should command attention from the governor, the Legislature, educators, parents and students as a key issue in this political year to come.