‘Peace More Distant’ : El Salvador: No End in Sight to War

Five years have passed since leftist guerrillas proclaimed their “final offensive” against the government of El Salvador, but so far nothing has been final about the civil war here.

Today, guerrillas of the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front refer to that January, 1981, declaration as the beginning of a “general offensive” and vow to continue a “prolonged war” to wear down the government and the United States’ determination to support it.

Five years after that announced offensive--and about six years after the fighting here actually began--the Salvadoran civil war is changing, but it shows no more sign of coming to an end than does the U.S. commitment, which increases every year in terms of dollars invested to support the government.

‘Ready for Battle’

“We are ready for a long battle, much longer than they (the government and the United States) can resist,” guerrilla commanders said in a New Year’s broadcast over Radio Venceremos, their clandestine radio station.

Like the guerrillas, Salvadoran and U.S. military observers believe the war is likely to continue for several years at least.

“These kinds of wars just take time,” said one Western observer with close ties to the Salvadoran armed forces. “The counterinsurgency war in Malaysia took 12 years. This war is moving about as fast as anyone could hope to move it.”

U.S. economic and military aid to El Salvador totaled $174 million annually when the guerrillas announced their “final offensive.” For 1986, the Reagan Administration has requested $486 million and is expected to get about $450 million. The Administration also requested $22 million for anti-terrorism training, half of which was cut and the rest of which is stalled in Congress.

Government Advantage

The government and the rebels both claim to have held the upper hand in the war during 1985, but the government apparently maintained an advantage on the traditional battlefield, largely because of its air force, which nearly doubled its hardware in 1985 through U.S. aid. Air power has given the military increased bombing and rocketing capability and more mobility, forcing the guerrillas to separate into small patrols and keep on the move.

The guerrillas were quick to respond to the enforced change by focusing on economic warfare, sabotage, the planting of land mines, ambushes and hit-and-run nighttime attacks. In October, the guerrillas assaulted the army’s main military school in the eastern province of La Union, killing 40 recruits.

The rebels’ most spectacular forays last year were their urban raids--an activity they have promised to expand. On July 19, guerrillas shot up two outdoor cafes in an upper middle class district of this capital, leaving 13 dead, among them four off-duty U.S. Marines who were the targets of the assault.

The guerrillas kidnaped President Jose Napoleon Duarte’s daughter and a companion on Sept. 10. The abduction virtually paralyzed the government for 44 days until the two were freed in an elaborate exchange that involved the release by authorities of 22 political prisoners, safe conduct for the evacuation of 101 wounded guerrillas from the country and freedom for 33 municipal officials who had previously been kidnaped by the guerrillas.

On the economic front, the guerrillas say they destroyed 8 million pounds of coffee--the nation’s main export product--and 12 coffee processing plants; blew up 50 towers supporting high-tension power lines and 700 other utility posts, and carried out eight national transportation stoppages totaling 48 days.

In 1984, the damage from economic sabotage totaled $263.9 million, according to U.S. Embassy figures, and the damage figure for 1985, still being tabulated, is expected to be higher. The guerrillas vowed to step up economic sabotage again this year.

The Farabundo Marti Front is an alliance of five guerrilla forces, each with its own name and leaders. Its main civilian ally is the Revolutionary Democratic Front, an organization of political, academic and trade union leaders, most of whom live in exile. Last July, the front announced that its five groups were uniting into a single guerrilla fighting force, and they appear to have made progress toward the goal of operational unity.

A General’s Report

From the government side, Gen. Adolfo Blandon, the army chief of staff, said that 1985 was the best year yet for the armed forces. He said they carried out 192 military operations during the year, were more professional, trained more of their officers within the country rather than in the United States and in neighboring Honduras and also began employing new tactics to respond to changes in the guerrillas’ tactics.

Further, Blandon said, the guerrilla forces have been reduced to about a third of their number of three years ago, when U.S. and Salvadoran officials estimated their total at 12,000. At the time, many regarded that estimate as high.

Foreign military observers say they believe guerrilla forces are now about half of what they used to be--down to 5,000 or 6,000--but these observers admit that the estimates are not firm. The guerrillas themselves never disclose the size of their forces. The observers also concede that in spite of the apparent reduction in guerrilla numbers, the rebels still can hit the government hard.

“With a force of about half the size,” one observer said, “they have the capability of inflicting 95% of the damage (on the economy) of the (former) larger force. And they continue to cause casualties. But you can’t win a war with mines and booby traps.”

Casualty figures made public by both sides cannot be confirmed independently and therefore are not considered reliable. Blandon said the armed forces killed 1,034 guerrillas in 1985 and captured 2,031--jailing most of them. He added that 712 guerrillas have turned themselves in.

Psychological Warfare

The government started a “psychological operations” campaign aimed at persuading guerrillas to abandon the rebel cause. It is not known if the apparent reduction in rebel troops owes anything to the propaganda campaign, or to the prospect of a prolonged war, or to the fact that today, government forces are committing fewer human rights violations. In the past, such abuses caused many to join the rebel forces.

The guerrillas announced that last year they inflicted 6,084 casualties on the armed forces, including dead and wounded, a figure observers consider to be high.

Blandon said the armed forces lost 426 dead and 1,683 wounded, but his year-end figure is considerably lower than an 11-month casualty figure issued by an army spokesman in December. Military officials said the discrepancy was due to a mistake in the earlier figure.

Most of the armed forces’ casualties were caused by mines and booby traps. Total military casualties reported by the government for 1985 numbered about the same as they did in 1984, although only about half as many soldiers were killed last year and more were wounded.

The guerrillas do not make public their own casualty figures.

While the number of rebel combatants appears to have declined, the armed forces’ strength has grown, from about 12,000 in 1981 to more than 50,000 today, and the share of the national budget allocated to the military has ballooned from about 8% when the war began to about 50% today.

Negotiations Appear Remote

As the war plods on, possibilities for a negotiated peace appear increasingly remote. Two rounds of peace talks were held in late 1984, and a third round was talked about but never took place.

After his daughter was kidnaped, Duarte refused to allow the exiled leaders of the Revolutionary Democratic Front to return to the country for a forum on peace organized by the University of El Salvador. These civilian opposition leaders had asked the government to assure their safety inside the country, but Duarte said that if they returned, they would be arrested for crimes committed by the Farabundo Marti Front.

Archbishop Arturo Rivera y Damas of San Salvador, chief architect of the 1984 peace talks, said recently that “peace seemed to grow more distant” in 1985.

In their first major operation of the new year, the guerrillas fulfilled their vow to expand the war to all areas of the country, attacking in the wealthy western province of Sonsonate, one of only two provinces that had been free of battle. The guerrillas are now active in 13 of the country’s 14 provinces.

The army responded by announcing a major operation on the slopes of the volcano Guazapa, a guerrilla stronghold about 20 miles north of San Salvador. The government has tried several times in the past to oust the guerrillas from Guazapa, but they have always returned.