Jordan Aid Plan Facing Certain Defeat, Lugar Tells Administration

Despite warnings that Congress is on the verge of disrupting the Mideast peace process, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) advised the Reagan Administration on Tuesday to withdraw its proposed arms sales to Jordan by Feb. 18 or face certain defeat in the Senate.

According to an aide, Lugar told Secretary of State George P. Shultz that he expects a resolution disapproving the sale to be introduced in the Senate on Monday, with a vote by Feb. 18. He predicted that at least 75 senators will vote against the sale.

The resolution would end months of legislative maneuvering by Lugar and Administration officials seeking to win congressional approval of the sale, which they hoped would encourage Jordan’s King Hussein to enter into peace talks with Israel. Sens. Alan Cranston (D-Calif.), Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and John Heinz (R-Pa.) will sponsor the measure.

Aides said that Lugar expects Administration officials to decide by the end of the week whether they will risk defeat in the Senate or withdraw the proposal to sell $1.55 billion in arms to Jordan.

The proposed sale includes advanced fighter aircraft as well as the Hawk and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and the Sidewinder air-to-air missile.

Richard W. Murphy, assistant secretary of state for Near East and South Asian affairs, told a House subcommittee Tuesday that a congressional vote against the sale at this time would have negative consequences in the Middle East.

“We ask Congress’ help to avoid a disruption at this delicate stage,” he said.

Murphy, who met separately in Europe last week with Hussein and Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, said the meetings brought the two Mideast governments closer to agreement on conditions for the start of peace talks. But he acknowledged that there were no dramatic breakthroughs, and he refused to predict when the direct talks might start.

In an interview, Lugar said the upcoming vote puts Hussein and Peres on notice that the time for beginning peace negotiations is running out. “No one wants to disrupt the process,” he said. “The process does have until Feb. 18 to succeed.”

Cranston, also in an interview, said that Congress will not agree to the sale unless Jordan and Israel begin actual negotiations. He added: “There’s no sign of the peace process really working. There’s been 20 years of peace talks. There have to be real talks, not talks about talks. There’s no sign of the peace process really working.”

Murphy said Hussein assured him last week in London that the Amman regime will continue to seek peace with Israel, regardless of the outcome of an arms sale vote. Nevertheless, he added that approval of the arms package “would be a help (for the peace process)--that’s the way the king sees it, and that’s the way we see it.”

Members of the House subcommittee, most of them outspoken supporters of Israel, also warned Murphy that he is nearly out of time if he hopes to salvage the proposed Jordan arms package. Rep. Larry Smith (D-Fla.) said he expects the House to act soon on a resolution of disapproval that has 273 co-sponsors.

California Rep. Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo) reminded Murphy that when the Administration submitted the Jordan arms package last fall, it cited the Syrian threat to Amman as the primary reason for the sale. However, he said, Jordan and Syria have since reached a rapprochement that destroyed the rationale for the sale.

Murphy replied that despite apparently improved relations between Amman and Damascus, Syria remains “the country most likely to block the peace process and also the country that poses the greatest threat” to Jordan.

California Rep. Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica) said, “Today, the case for the sale of arms to Jordan is considerably weaker than it was three months ago.”

Levine also urged the Administration to reject Saudi Arabia’s request to buy anti-aircraft missiles and advanced equipment for their F-15 warplanes. However, Murphy said the Administration probably will propose a Saudi sale, although he declined to say when.

Congressional sources predicted that the Administration will divide the Saudi arms sale package into six or seven individual legislative proposals in an effort to win piecemeal congressional approval. But they predicted that opponents will succeed in defeating the sale of F-15 equipment to the Saudi government.