L.A. County’s Population Is Soaring Again

In a surprising turnaround, Los Angeles County’s population is soaring again--surpassing so far in the 1980s all the growth of the 1970s.

Stalled and even losing population at times in the early 1970s, Los Angeles County is now growing by nearly 120,000 people a year, about three times the yearly average of the last decade. If the trend continues, the county will add more residents than it did during the 1960s, when the population rose by 1 million.

“Los Angeles County’s population . . . is on a roll,” says George Marr, chief of the county’s population studies. “The growth is sustaining itself and should continue through the remainder of the 1980s, at least.”

Experts Were Wrong

And in Sacramento, Elizabeth Hoag, research manager for the state Department of Finance’s population unit, says: “Some experts were predicting that there would be no more growth--that Los Angeles County has had it. But (it’s) certainly changed from the 1970s.”

Marr estimates that the county’s population hit 8.075 million last month, up 598,000 from the 1980 Census. Hoag’s state office makes an even higher estimate--8.135 million, up 658,000 from 1980, an increase of 8.1% in six years. During all of the 1970s, the county’s population grew by only 435,000, or 6.3%. From 1971 to 1974, the county’s population actually declined each year.

In sharp contrast with previous population surges, Los Angeles County’s growth in the 1980s is not the result of a wave of migration from other parts of the United States, Marr says. This time, for the most part, it is simply a result of more births than deaths. Latinos and Asians are accounting for most of the births, the latest ethnic breakdowns show, and non-Latino whites now make up less than half the county’s population.

The county and state population estimates, compiled between censuses to help plan and allocate government services, are based on such data as driver’s license registration changes, birth and death figures and voter registration records.

Orange County Slowdown

Almost as surprising to demographers studying Los Angeles County’s rebounding population is a slowdown in some Southern California counties that had been booming, notably Orange County and, to a lesser extent, Ventura County. San Bernardino and Riverside counties, meanwhile, are growing faster than they did in the 1970s.

Orange County added an average of 51,000 people a year during the 1970s and grew 36% during the decade. So far in the 1980s, the average increase has been just 37,000 a year, and the overall growth since 1980 has been just 10%. Demographers and other experts blame the slowdown primarily on high housing costs and shrinking availability of land.

San Diego County, meanwhile, has continued to add about 51,000 people a year in the 1980s--matching its growth of the 1970s. Indeed, recently released state figures, based on mid-1985 estimates, show San Diego County overtaking Orange County as the state’s second-most-populous county. These figures put San Diego County’s population at 2.13 million and Orange County’s at 2.12 million.

Demographers find striking 1980s population similarities between Los Angeles County and its San Francisco Bay Area counterparts--San Francisco and Alameda counties.

San Francisco, Hoag notes, declined in population by 37,000 in the 1970s. Since 1980, however, due largely to an influx of immigrants from Asia and Latin America, the population has increased 56,000, pushing the total to 735,000.

Alameda County’s population has risen by 92,000--to 1.19 million--since 1980. That is almost triple its growth for the 1970s when it, too, went through three years of decline.

Influence of Navy

Hoag notes, however, that the Navy’s presence in Alameda County is a significant factor in population swings.

“If two aircraft carriers pull out, that can mean a population change of 10,000,” she said.

Analyzing Los Angeles County’s new growth, Marr says “natural” increase--a surplus of births over deaths--accounts for about 80%. Based on trends through 1984, which Marr believes have not changed, about 70% of the natural increase has occurred in the county’s Latino community, which makes up just 31% of the county population but has a sharply higher birthrate. Blacks and Asians account for most of the rest of the increase.

Among the non-Latino white population, Marr says, births and deaths are roughly equal to each other--a lack of growth that means non-Latino whites are no longer in the majority in Los Angeles County.

In its mid-1985 report on the county’s ethnic mix, the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce estimated that non-Latino whites now make up 46% of the county population, down from 53% in the 1980 Census. Latinos are the second-largest ethnic group at 31%, up about 3.5% from 1980; blacks account for 12% of the population, unchanged from 1980, and Asians and Pacific islanders now account for 10%, up about 4% since the start of the decade.

“This broad ethnic range has never been so pronounced,” Marr says. “The county has become a true polyglot center.”

Marr says the rest of the county’s growth comes from immigration, both legal and illegal, mostly from Asia and Central America.

None of the increase, the demographers note, is domestic--that is, from elsewhere in California or the United States. In fact, figures compiled from driver’s license changes show that nearly 198,000 people left Los Angeles County in 1985 for other counties and states while 175,000 moved in.

This translated into a net loss of 23,000 residents from domestic movement. Marr says this trend may be easing, because 1984’s net loss was 30,000.

School Overcrowding

Although population growth has occurred throughout most of the county in the 1980s, county planners say nearly half of it has taken place in an irregular bowl-shaped area encompassing central Los Angeles and extending east to El Monte, west to Hollywood and the mid-Wilshire district and south to Watts-Willowbrook. The experience of the Los Angeles Unified School District would seem to confirm this, for it is this area in which school overcrowding is becoming most severe.

The county’s surge in population, meanwhile, is causing forecasters to change their projections for the years ahead.

The county’s 1980 forecast that the population would reach 7.85 million at the turn of the century is, of course, outdated now. The new, unofficial forecast is for 8.6 million. Supervising regional planner George Malone, however, believes that figure could be reached as early as 1993 or 1994.

The state Department of Finance is also planning to revise its 8.5 million population forecast for the year 2000.

High Rate in ‘90s Doubted

But Hoag of the state Finance Deparment says state researchers are far from certain that the county’s high growth rate will continue into the 1990s. For one thing, they do not expect immigration from abroad to remain at the current high levels. She also believes that the county’s birthrate, following the national trend, will drop as fewer women enter the childbearing years and that the number of deaths will increase with changes in age structures.

“The county’s growth depends on so many things,” she says. “I also don’t believe Los Angeles County will be as attractive for people from other parts of the United States because it’s (already) crowded and is becoming even more so.”

But population forecasting is tricky. The current surge was already under way, for example, when a Rand Corp. report two years ago proclaimed an end to Los Angeles County’s booming growth.

The privately circulated report, “The Slow-Growing Orange,” predicted that the county’s growth would be much slower through the rest of the 1980s and the ‘90s.

Los Angeles “can no longer expect the rapid growth that it enjoyed in the past,” Rand senior researcher Kevin F. McCarthy wrote.

He now concedes he was off base. “The turnaround in the 1980s has caught me by surprise,” he says. “The degree to which (population growth) has gone up is beyond what I thought. But we’re still not talking about a boom town. We’re talking about moderate growth.” POPULATION GROWTH Los Angeles County is growing by nearly 120,000 people a year, about three times the yearly average of the last decade. If the trend continues, the county will add more residents than it did in the 1960s, when the population rose by 1 million. Growth has slowed sharply in Orange County, but remains strong in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Los Angeles County Population Growth In Millions 1930 2.2 1940 2.8 1950 4.2 1960 6.0 1970 7.0 1980 7.5 1986 8.1* * Estimate SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTY In Thousands

%Change %Change 1970 1980 1970-80 1985* 1980-85 Los Angeles 7,032 7,477 +6.3% 8,085 +8.1% Orange 1,432 1,933 +35.0 2,128 +10.1 Riverside 462 663 +43.5 821 +23.8 San Bernardino 685 893 +30.4 1,086 +21.6 San Diego 1,367 1,862 +36.2 2,132 +14.5 Ventura 381 530 +39.1 600 +13.2

* Estimate Source: California Department of Finance, and Census Figures