Presidential Hopefuls Jockey for Advantage in French Parliamentary Election Drive

In the final days before elections for the French National Assembly, government officials are apparently planting rumors that President Francois Mitterrand may resign if right-wing parties win an overwhelming victory in Sunday’s voting.

The French press is not sure what to make of these rumors. Some journalists suspect a last-ditch ploy by the Socialist government to persuade voters that France will be caught in turmoil and confusion if the conservatives wrest control of the lower house of Parliament from the Socialists.

The Paris newspaper Liberation labeled the rumors “blackmail.”

Whatever they are, the rumors have the merit of focusing attention on what much of the election campaign is really all about: the presidency. France may be electing a parliament, but it is also preparing for a presidential election. Presidential hopefuls have been campaigning as if indeed they were in a presidential primary.

No Vice President

The presidential election is scheduled for 1988, when Mitterrand’s seven-year term ends. Since there is no vice president under the French constitution, the election would have to be held earlier if Mitterrand resigned.

There is nothing subtle about the presidential campaign within the parliamentary campaign. Politicians with their eyes on the presidency have been wandering far from their home districts to make an impact on the national electorate.

Michel Rocard, ranked by polls as the most popular Socialist in the country, is running for an assembly seat from a district not far from Paris. But he could be found campaigning earlier this month on the Caribbean island of Guadaloupe, an overseas district of France. His presence even confused a Guadeloupian, who handed him a letter with a personal plea for help. The envelope was addressed to the president of France.

Former Premier Raymond Barre, ranked by polls as the most popular conservative in France, came far from his home constituency in Lyon that same week to lend a hand to his fellow conservatives running for office in Paris. But Parisians at the rally knew why he was there. “Barre, president, Barre, president,” they chanted.

Leading Contenders

Judging by the polls, the leading contenders for president are, among the conservatives, Barre and Jacques Chirac, mayor of Paris and a former premier, and, assuming that the 69-year-old Mitterrand does not run for reelection, Rocard and Premier Laurent Fabius among the Socialists.

Chirac, 53, who has a cold public image, is following a simple scenario. The polls make it clear that he is far from popular enough now to win election as president. But as leader of the right-wing Rally for the Republic, a party that sees itself as being in the late President Charles de Gaulle’s tradition, Chirac hopes to be named premier if a coalition of conservative parties wins control of the National Assembly. In two years as premier, he would hope to become popular enough to win the presidency in 1988.

Chirac wants Mitterrand to stay on. His scenario would be upset if Mitterrand resigned and forced an election now. It might also be upset if Chirac, as the conservative premier, were to find himself constantly slugging it out with the Socialist president. Chirac, in the view of most analysts, would need a quiet, constructive two years as premier to build up his reputation.

Professorial Scenario

For the 61-year-old Barre, rotund and professorial, the scenario is just the opposite. Barre, according to the polls, would leave far behind all of the conservatives, including Chirac, if a presidential election were held now. Obviously he would prefer a presidential election sooner rather than later.

For many months, Barre has insisted that Mitterrand should resign if the assembly, as expected, falls under the control of a conservative majority. Otherwise, according to Barre, the unique French system of both a president and premier with executive powers would be paralyzed. From the outset of the Fifth Republic in 1958, the president has always had a non-hostile and compliant premier at his side.

Barre has disagreed publicly with the contention of Chirac and former President Valery Giscard d’Estaing that the premier, backed by the National Assembly, assumes most power when the two come from different parties. Maintaining that the president derives his strength from his election by the people as a whole, Barre has warned against “a return to the regime of political parties.” This was a reference to the pre-De Gaulle days of the Fourth Republic when France was governed by a procession of shifting parliamentary coalitions.

Target of Pun

Although popular in the polls, Barre has irked many conservatives by his independence. He turned down an invitation from Giscard, for example, to attend a unity meeting with Chirac and other conservatives during the campaign. Some critics have plastered posters around Paris labeling Barre a “general de division, “ a pun that could mean either a major general in the army or a chief of discord.

Rocard, 55, is the Socialist with the best chance of matching Barre. Yet as a maverick who resigned as minister of agriculture to protest Mitterrand’s decision last year to impose an electoral system of proportional representation, Rocard is not admired by those who run the Socialist Party.

Although Rocard is a Protestant in a Roman Catholic country and a centrist in a Socialist Party, most voters, according to the news magazine Le Point, look on him as an average Frenchman. They also regard him as honest and a man of charm. A recent survey, however, revealed that he has the largest vocabulary of all French politicians, uses the most complex words in his speeches, and delivers them at the greatest speed. If this confuses the voters, it does not seem to bother them.

Main Challenger

Rocard’s future may depend on a Socialist defeat Sunday. If the Socialists falter badly, they may have to turn to their most popular politician in the next presidential campaign.

The main Socialist challenger to Rocard is Fabius, the 39-year-old premier. When Mitterrand named him premier in July, 1984, Fabius was looked on as the rising star of French politics. But his popularity declined steadily, and a few months ago many analysts were beginning to count him out as an important force.

But he has traveled widely and made speeches often during the parliamentary campaign, registering a surprising increase in popularity in the polls. In any future showdown with Rocard for the presidential nomination, Fabius would probably have many party regulars on his side. This would be especially true if the Socialists do better than expected on Sunday.