Although it is an unpredictable, frequently frightening world, Americans will be traveling again this year--and quite possibly in numbers nearing the record set last year.

This is the consensus of industry leaders in an annual poll taken by The Times’ Travel Section.

Despite the threat of terrorism, millions will leave these shores for new adventure overseas while others, less intrepid, will vacation in the United States.

The majority will avoid the world’s trouble spots. In particular, tourism is expected to decline dramatically in the Eastern Mediterranean. Greece and Italy especially are expected to suffer due to the memory of the hijacking of TWA Flight 847 in Athens, the recent carnage at the airport in Rome (and Vienna)and the terrorist takeover of the Italian liner Achille Lauro that resulted in the death of one American and the arrest of the hijackers.

Some predict that tourism to Europe will be off by as much as 50% while others are saying optimistically that new records will be chalked up. Realistically, travel agents admit that Europe will probably suffer. This will be due to a decline in the dollar’s buying power as well as recent terrorist acts.

While it is impossible to predict the outcome of European travel in 1986, the experts agree that the Pacific is destined to enjoy its busiest season in years. The big swing will be to Australia where tourism during the final six months of 1985 grew by 40%.

Spinoff From Europe

“We’re getting the backlash from Europe,” said Alan Drew of the Australian Tourist Commission in Los Angeles.

Other Pacific destinations getting the spinoff from Europe include the Orient, New Zealand and French Polynesia.

Industry leaders questioned in The Times’ poll made these additional comments:

--Canada will do exceptionally well in ’86 (Expo in Vancouver will give tourism a big boost).

--Mexico is expected to recover from the decline in tourism after last year’s earthquake.

--The Caribbean can expect a good year, along with South America.

--The Orient is heavily booked.

--Cruise business on the West Coast is expected to break records.

--Price wars will continue among the airlines.

Particularly the Pacific

Joseph Hallissey, chairman of the American Society of Travel Agents, predicts a “diversion of travel from the Middle East and the Mediterranean to other areas--particularly the Pacific.”

Tim Bartlett of the British Tourist Authority told The Times:”Our inquiries are down over last year. There’s a wait-and-see attitude. We think it’s possible we will have as good a year as 1985.” Bartlett said there is a “tremendous interest” in Scotland and Wales--”probably because of the exceptional tranquil image these places have.”

Travel agents report thousands of cancellations or the shift by clients to different destinations because of the terrorist scare in the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

Earlier this year the 23-nation European Travel Commission on a promotion tour of the United States forecast--many think unrealistically--that 7 million Americans will visit Europe during 1986.

Speaking of Risks

Speaking on the risk of terrorism, U.S. Undersecretary for Travel and Tourism Donna Tuttle warned:”If we suggest that foreign travel may involve risk, we may contribute, inadvertently, to public panic. We may unintentionally encourage further terrorist acts by creating a forum and an atmosphere in which terrorists can command greater public attention.”

Tuttle suggested that Americans are in for greater danger from automobile accidents at home than from terrorists overseas.

“Millions of Americans travel around the world and the numbers harmed are infinitesimal compared with those who complete their journeys safely,” she said.

Eric Friedheim, the publisher of Travel Agent magazine, agrees. “I would take my wife to Europe. A terrorist act could occur at JFK as well as Rome.”

Closer to home, Alaska’s Inside Passage will be crowded with ocean liners, some repositioned from the Mediterranean. Princess Cruises decided to switch the Pacific Princess to Seattle from the Mediterranean (its entire fleet will be sailing the Inside Passage, May through September). Royal Viking Line restructured its Mediterranean program, and Royal Cruise Line intends to reposition the Royal Odyssey to the Pacific after a series of London/Scandinavia cruises.

Switched His Pitch

Earlier, Richard Revnes, president of Royal Cruise Line, joked with Americans:”Wouldn’t you rather go to Rome than Nome?” Since then Revnes has switched his pitch.

Surprisingly, Revnes said the terrorist scare has resulted in record bookings for his cruise line.

“Since our move out of the Mediterranean,” he said, “our bookings are the highest in two years.”

Expo 86 in Vancouver is responsible for lively action in the Pacific Northwest. More than 150 companies are designing packages for Expo whose theme is “Man in Motion.” The new $100-million Pan Pacific Hotel beside the Canadian Pavilion is booked solid for the entire six months starting May 2.

Other nations benefiting from the grim airport bombings in Rome and Vienna include Russia and several European nations.

U.S. News & World Report headlined a recent story:”Rome’s Loss is Moscow’s Gain.”

Security is credited with the boom in travel to the Soviet Union.

“The Russians won’t tolerate terrorism,” said one industry leader.

Eastern Europe Ready

Stressing safety, Eastern Europe in general is anticipating new growth in tourism.

Travel to Paris took a dip when a bomb was discovered on the Champs Elysees. Scenes of carnage at airports in Rome and Vienna frightened others away.

Thousands of would-be visitors to Europe have canceled or delayed trips.

“Ironically, with the increased security, the Continent has probably never been safer,” said Scott Supernaw, president of Olson’s Europe.

Supernaw said that Britain, even after photos of police armed with automatic weapons at Heathrow Airport, continues relatively strong in the tourism stream. He forecast a good year for Scandinavia as well.

Stung badly by isolated incidents of terrorism is the traditional grand tour of Europe that involves both Italy and France. The same is true of Austria. Travelers find it hard to forget the bloody airport scenes in Rome and Vienna.

Walking in Safety

Still, out of 6.6 million Americans who visited Europe last year, only 10 died at the hands of terrorists. While there is apparent fear of travel to the Middle East, Shmuel Zurel, director of the Israel Government Tourist Office in Los Angeles, noted that more than 900 homicides were reported last year in Los Angeles County while only 30 occurred in all of Israel.

“In Israel,” he told a gathering in Los Angeles, “there is not a single street where you can’t walk alone, at any time of the day or night.”

Blaming “one-sided” media coverage for a 12%decline in travel to Israel this year, that nation’s tourism leaders are launching a $1.7-million ad campaign with a slogan, “Come to Israel--come stay with friends.”

Tourism is the tiny nation’s No. 1 industry.

Authorities say Israel’s airport at Tel Aviv is rated as one of the safest in the world.

“Its security is so tight it squeaks,” said one official.

Athens Now a Fortress

Airport authorities in Athens make similar claims. Since the TWA hijacking, security has been beefed up until the airport is an “impregnable fortress,” according to Vasilis Papadatos of the Greek National Tourist Organization.

“It has to be the safest airport in Europe, if not the world,” said Papadatos, explaining that planes are “security searched” and the terminal is monitored by TV cameras operated by anti-terrorist squads.

Still, with tourism down a crushing 20%, Greece, like Israel, is putting together a lively ad campaign to lure visitors.

At Rome’s Leonardo da Vinci Airport, machine gun-toting guards do random searches of passengers. Everywhere across Europe security has been tightened until the chances of being blown away by a terrorist is minimal compared to the risk of being mugged on the streets of Los Angeles--or any other American city for that matter, said one industry official.

Nevertheless, Americans who crowded Europe in record numbers in 1985 seem intimidated by the talk of terrorism.

Sympathizes With Egyptians

“I think anyone involved with travel to Europe will tell you the same thing--people are afraid,” said Ron Harris, president of Hemphill Harris Travel Corp.

Harris sympathizes even more with the Egyptians than with Europeans. In Egypt, he said, tourism is “way off.” Last year he had 6,000 clients booked to Egypt, this year he has only 300. “Actually, Europe is a safe destination, but no one is going there.”

Harris, though, is fortunate. He deals with the Rolls-Royce crowd and his business is booming. On deck he has a 35-day tour around the world by private jet that’s practically sold out--at $23,000 per passenger.

Harris is sending others to Australia and New Zealand. “People feel very safe down there.”

Attention for India, Nepal

India and Nepal are surprising the travel industry with the attention they are getting. India is looking forward to what well could be a record year.

While the outlook for Europe has been bleak, Americans appear to be reconsidering the prospect of a vacation on the Continent. As time passes between terrorist incidents, bookings start to pick up.

Hermann Krueger, chairman of the European Travel Commission, is even forecasting an increase in visitors. But the majority of Europeans are less enthusiastic, hoping instead for what one industry spokesman described as merely a “fair year.”

“If we get anything over 4 million Americans,” he said, “it will be a tremendous plus.”

Tour operators are offering tempting deals. James Murphy, president of Brendan Tours, tells of a 13-day jaunt through Ireland with accommodations in farmhouses and country inns for $538 that includes a banquet at Bunratty Castle as well as other meals. The entire package figures out to less than $42 a day.

Featuring Irish Castles

At the same time, Murphy is promoting a deluxe 12-day tour of Ireland featuring Ashford and Dromoland castles, the Park Hotel in Kenmare and the fashionable Westbury Court Hotel in Dublin for $1,398.

Murphy said he would have “no concern about sending my own kids to Europe this year.”

On the Continent, Murphy operates a 15-day grand tour beginning in London with visits to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Munich, Innsbruck, Rome, Florence, Lucerne and Paris for a peak season price of $788 and featuring first-class and superior hotels.

“Obviously,” Murphy said, “Europe is still a good buy.”

A number of other surprisingly inexpensive tours are being offered by Arthur Frommer and TWA’s Getaway vacations program (a week in London for $198).

Sunbeam Tours of Santa Ana is spotlighting a 19-day Europe tour for $1,399.

Orient a Hot Seller

Other tour operators are concentrating on Mexico, South America and the Orient. Tyler Tanaka of Japan & Orient Tours describes the Orient as “one of the hottest sellers today.” Leading the list is a trip to Hong Kong that includes the flight, hotels and sightseeing for $899. Tanaka also packages tours to Singapore and Bangkok for the same price and serves China and the South Pacific. A 12-day tour to Australia and New Zealand is tagged at $1,199.

Hawaii, which counted 4.88 million visitors last year, was so crowded recently that when Stanley Hong, president of the Hawaii Visitors Bureau, visited Kona even he couldn’t find a room.

Low air fares and inexpensive tour packages are drawing jet loads of travelers to the Islands. Pleasant Hawaiian Holidays is selling a seven-day trip that includes the round-trip flight from LAX, transfers and a hotel in Waikiki for $299.

Sales Good for Mexico

Meanwhile, Mexico, which suffered a devastating setback after last year’s earthquake, is recovering, according to Alberto Abdo of the Mexican National Tourist Council. Mexico is being touted as one of the cheapest destinations for Americans this year. Abdo said Cancun is “sold out constantly” and that other destinations are improving.

“By summer,” Abdo said, “we expect to be 10%ahead of 1984.”

That was a banner year for Mexico. The nation anticipates playing host to 5 million visitors during 1986.

Still, with all the optimism, terrorism remains the one major deterrent to a promising year in international travel. Writer Jan Morris discussed the subject in an article recently.

“There must be many people who wonder how best to conduct themselves while traveling abroad,” she said. “If you are contemplating travel to openly hostile regions, to countries where at the moment the very name of America makes the blood boil, don’t go.” But violence, she reminded us, “is just as likely to happen on Sunset Boulevard as it is at a foreign airport.”