THE KENTUCKY DERBY : Snow Chief, Though a Favorite, Is Going Against Odds Today

The game is as old as racing itself. It is called Knock the Favorite, and Snow Chief is getting it with both barrels going into today’s 112th Kentucky Derby.

Even before the preliminary betting started at Churchill Downs Friday, Snow Chief’s detractors were taking potshots at the morning-line Derby favorite. This is some of their ammunition:

--Although he won the Santa Anita Derby, Snow Chief hasn’t raced in a month, and no horse has won the Derby with a 30-day breather since Needles’ victory in 1956.

--Being a California-bred, Snow Chief has two strikes against him. Only three Cal-breds--Morvich in 1922, Swaps in 1955 and Decidedly in 1962--have ever won the Derby. Since Decidedly, 29 Cal-breds have run in the Derby, the best finishes being seconds by Hill Rise in 1964 and Rumbo in 1980. Overall, Cal-breds have not sent much fear into the hearts of other Derby horses, winning three, finishing second twice and grabbing four thirds in 59 appearances.

--Snow Chief has won five straight stakes since he was outfitted with blinkers back in December. But that makes him vulnerable to the little-known Kentucky Derby blinkers jinx. A horse with a hood has not wound up with the roses since Bold Forbes in 1976.

--The Dosage Index, which sounds like something that should be treated with penicillin but is actually an arcane analysis that determines whether horses have the staying power to win the 1-mile Derby, gives Snow Chief no chance. And when the doctors of dosage, Leon Rasmussen of the Daily Racing Form and Steven Roman, a Texas physicist, say a horse’s dosage level is too high for him to win the Derby, they’re always right. Dosage has only been published in advance of the Derby in recent years, but working backward, Rasmussen and Roman say the system has worked for the last 57 runnings of the race.

Another reason to denigrate Snow Chief would have been the fact that a Derby favorite hasn’t won the race since 1979, but in preliminary betting Friday at Churchill Downs, the colt didn’t even come off the favorite, despite starting at 6-5 odds.

With less than $300,000 in the pool--it will swell to more than $6 million by today’s 2:38 p.m. PDT post time--Badger Land has become the 7-2 favorite, with Snow Chief the second choice at 4-1.

Badger Land has not finished ahead of Snow Chief in four tries, running second, 1 3/4 lengths behind, in their last meeting, the Florida Derby March 1. Since then, having won two non-Snow Chief races in Florida in excellent times, Badger Land is being characterized as an improved horse.

The defense will not rest, however. “My horse has improved since then, too,” said Mel Stute, who trains Snow Chief and who doesn’t know dosage from Diogenes.

What Stute does know is that on Friday, in Snow Chief’s final prep for the Derby, the son of Reflected Glory went three furlongs in a blazing :34 1/5 with Alex Solis, his Derby jockey, in the saddle. As usual, Snow Chief worked without blinkers, because with them there’s no telling how fast the colt would have moved.

“If he had blinkers on today, we’d still be out there trying to catch him,” Stute said. “He loves this race track.”

But hardly anybody loves Snow Chief. USA Today polled 24 reporters covering the Derby, and only six, among them this one, picked Snow Chief. Badger Land got the most support. He was tabbed by 11 reporters.

The 16-horse field, with odds based on Friday’s betting, consists of Ferdinand, 13-1; Mogambo, 7-1; Bold Arrangement, 6-1; Vernon Castle, 10-1; Rampage, 5-1; Broad Brush, 13-1; Badger Land, 7-2; Wheatly Hall, 45-1; Snow Chief, 4-1; Bachelor Beau, 30-1; Groovy, 50-1, and the five-horse pari-mutuel field of Wise Times, Icy Groom, Southern Appeal, Zabaleta and Fobby Forbes, 9-1.

Each will carry 126 pounds, running for a record $784,400 purse that includes $609,400 to the winner. The chance of sunny, 70-degree weather should assure a crowd of more than 100,000.

Some of them surely will bet on Snow Chief, despite the detractors. John Gosden, who trains Zabaleta, is an objective observer who likes Stute’s horse today.

“He looks beautiful to me,” Gosden said of Snow Chief. “If ever there was a horse who looked like he was going to win the Kentucky Derby, this colt is the horse.”

Stute himself doesn’t fear Badger Land, largely because Snow Chief has handled that opponent every time they’ve met.

“Other than my own horse, Vernon Castle could be the horse to beat,” Stute said. “I just don’t know whether he’s seasoned enough (three lifetime starts) to win a race like the Derby, but I was impressed by his win in the California Derby.”

Vernon Castle, as mentioned, is 10-1. Either Friday’s bettors don’t have a handle on this year’s Kentucky Derby or Mel Stute doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

Jockey Chris McCarron was given a five-day suspension Friday by the Churchill Downs stewards, effective Monday, meaning he will be able to ride Bold Arrangement in the Kentucky Derby.

McCarron was suspended for careless riding in the stretch Thursday, which caused the disqualification of his mount, Hurried Thoughts.

RECENTLY, IT HASN’T PAID TO BE THE FAVORITE

Today, Snow Chief will try to become the first betting favorite since Spectacular Bid in 1979 to win the Kentucky Derby. Here’s how the Derby favorites have fared the last six years:

YEAR WAGERING FAVORITE ODDS FINISH WINNER ODDS TO $1 TO $1 1985 Chief’s Crown 1.20 3rd Spend a Buck 4.10 1984 a-Althea 2.80 19th Swale 3.40 a-Life’s Magic 2.80 8th 1983 a-Marfa 2.40 4th Sunny’s Halo 2.50 a-Balboa Native 2.40 9th a-Total Departure 2.40 20th 1982 Air Forbes Won 2.70 7th Gato Del Sol 21.20 1981 a-Proud Appeal 2.30 18th Pleasant Colony 3.50 a-Golden Derby 2.30 21st 1980 Rockhill Native 2.10 5th Genuine Risk 13.30

a-coupled in wagering.