How Great Is the Toll at Chernobyl? : Delays Surely Raised Radiation Exposure of Many Thousands

Even when the veil of Soviet secrecy is pierced and the facts are out, the relevant question about the casualties caused by the Chernobyl nuclear plant disaster will not be about whether there were two immediate deaths, as the Soviet government claimed, or 2,000, as was rumored.

The immediate fatalities were only the beginning. Most of the deaths will occur within 30 to 60 days, caused by exposure to the variety of isotopes released. Those most likely to be affected are people within 10 miles of the plant--the Chernobyl workers, their dependents and the many who came in to fight the fire and who continue with attempts to stop the release of additional radioactivity.

Two historical precedents shed some light onto what can be expected as the outcome of the Chernobyl disaster.

The first occurred in 1957 at a graphite-moderated reactor at Windscale, England, within 50 miles of Leeds. Operator error and poor instrumentation led to a fire in the reactor that in turn caused the release of iodine-131, a short-lived isotope affecting the thyroids of those who have been exposed. The effects do not become evident for 10 to 20 years.

Although apparently similar in design, Windscale was a much smaller reactor than the one at Chernobyl and its fire was contained within a short time. Considering the size of the Chernobyl plant and the possibility that the fire may still be burning, we can reasonably assume that several thousand times more iodine-131 has been released from this latest accident. Therefore, the doses received by people 50 to 100 miles downwind (that is, to the northwest, away from Kiev) would be several thousand times more than at Windscale.

Among adults with this sort of exposure, 10% to 20% would be expected to develop thyroid abnormalities and 5% to 10% of the total--or half of the abnormalities--are apt to be cancerous. Virtually all of the children exposed will develop thyroid abnormalities, including some cancers and atrophied thyroids.

If untreated, thyroid cancer leads to death. Thyroid atrophy leads to stunted growth and various other hormonal problems. Assuming the Soviet government acknowledges that these children are suffering from a thyroid disease, their thyroids will most likely have to be removed and they will be in need of thyroid drug treatments for the rest of their lives.

With the apparently sluggish Soviet evacuation and alerting system, and with the lack of prevention measures, such as the distribution of iodine pills, it appears that many thousands of adults and children have been affected, especially since significant exposure to iodine-131 can occur simply by inhaling the clear, odorless, toxic isotope.

The second historical precedent--and most likely the worst nuclear accident until Chernobyl--occurred near the Soviet city of Sverdlovsk in 1957 or 1958. Despite repeated pleas from the scientific community, Moscow has yet to release any details. The best guess is that the incident was a massive waste-handling accident that led most significantly to the release of large quantities of strontium-90, as well as other long-lived isotopes. Strontium-90 is in the same chemical family as calcium; the body collects it in the bone tissue, especially in children. It is ingested through the food and water chain and, with a half-life of 30 years, becomes very widely spread in any contaminated area.

It is difficult to ascertain precisely what amount of strontium-90 was released at Chernobyl. But radioactive barium, which is in the same chemical family and more easily detected, has been found in Sweden, indicating that some strontium-90 must have been released. Our best estimate is that the Chernobyl reactor released 1 to 10 times the amount of strontium-90 as was released near Sverdlovsk. After that accident, many small towns disappeared from the map, and to this day hundreds of square miles remain uninhabitable. The Chernobyl accident took place near the heart of the Ukrainian “bread-basket,” leaving large questions as to how it will affect food production and distribution over the next century.

Whatever the number of immediate deaths, it’s no exaggeration to say that the nuclear accident at Chernobyl is the world’s worst ever. While the Soviets have begun to give more information concerning the accident, it would be most helpful if they would release the precise details--not only how it occurred but also the quantity and time sequence of the release of these crippling isotopes. The information would have direct applicability to the safety and evacuation procedures involving all reactors in the world.

The general Soviet effort to hide the consequences of the Chernobyl accident has failed. But by delaying evacuations and other protective measures, Moscow must have greatly increased the amount of radiation exposure suffered by the Soviet people. The nature, or naturalness, of Soviet secrecy apparently has neither bounds nor boundaries. What relevance is there in the popular rock lyrics “I hope the Russians love their children, too,” if the Soviet government doesn’t?