Prop. 51 Leads in Poll, but Half Are Undecided

Half of California’s voters have yet to make up their minds about Proposition 51, the “deep pockets” initiative on the June 3 ballot, but those who are decided support the liability-limiting measure by a 3-1 margin, according to the latest California Poll.

Statewide results released Wednesday also showed that plaintiffs’ lawyers and insurance companies--the two main opposing forces in the bitter debate--so far have not managed to discredit one another enough to be a major influence in swaying voter opinion.

Proposition 51 would change state law to limit payment of non-economic damages in personal injury lawsuits to a defendant’s share of the blame, not his ability to pay. “Deep pockets” defendants with sufficient resources or insurance could still be required to pay all economic damages such as medical bills or lost wages.

Cities, counties and insurance companies generally support the measure, saying it is unfair for defendants only marginally at fault in injury lawsuits to be exposed to paying up to 100% of the damages. Plaintiffs’ lawyers and others argue that Proposition 51 is unfair to injured parties, who could win a lawsuit but collect less than the total of the jury award.

The California Poll surveyed 786 registered California voters between May 2 and May 7. The results showed 37% favored the measure and 13% opposed it. The remaining 50% were divided evenly between those aware of the issue but still undecided and those who were unfamiliar with the measure.

The figures differ sharply from California Poll results taken in March before either side began television commercial campaigning. At that time, 13% supported it while 3% opposed it, with 84% either undecided or unaware of the measure.

The latest findings could be off by 4% in either direction, said Mark diCamillo, the poll’s managing director.

DiCamillo said confusion about the measure exists even among those who have indicated how they would vote. A full 25% of opponents explained they could not support it because it was too confusing. Among supporters, 42% acknowledged that they were unfamiliar with the “deep pockets” doctrine but believed that Proposition 51 would limit out-of-court settlements and reduce the number of lawsuits, DiCamillo said.

Despite a heavy campaign focus on “greedy trial lawyers” by the measure’s backers and on an “insurance industry rip-off” by opponents, the two institutions did not come across as villains to large numbers of those polled. Among supporters, only 8% expressed displeasure with lawyers. Only 9% of opponents were critical of insurance companies, DiCamillo said.

The opposing campaigns each found a silver lining in the results.

TV Commercials

“The . . . poll shows very clearly that ‘political terrorism’ just doesn’t work on California voters,” said Richard Woodward, Proposition 51’s campaign manager. “During this time, the California Trial Lawyers--with the aid and comfort of an attorney general, who seems to have had an integrity bypass--were flooding the air with obnoxious and untrue commercials designed to frighten people into voting against Proposition 51.”

Woodward was referring to two television ads, one featuring Atty. Gen. John Van De Kamp, stressing that toxic polluters will be protected from paying their full share of damage awards if Proposition 51 is approved. Perhaps reflecting the late start in opposition commercials, the California Poll showed that only 5% of those opposing the measure cited toxic waste as a reason for their view.

Harvey Rosenfield, principal spokesman for the opposition, said the fact that 50% of the voters are not ready to vote on the issue is a “very positive” sign. Rosenfield said that when the survey was taken, the anti-Proposition 51 forces--plaintiffs’ lawyers, consumers and injury victims groups--had been airing commercials only two weeks. The proponents, mainly local governments, businesses and professionals, meanwhile had begun their ads three weeks earlier.

“A huge number of people are becoming aware of the real impact,” said Rosenfield, noting that the opposition figures had quadrupled since March.