In Ulster, a Peace Pact Spurs Greater Troubles

Summer is always troubled in Ulster, with Protestant marchers parading past Catholic churches and homes, but the next three months could be the most critical in the 65-year history of Britain’s offshore province.

Protestant political leaders have broken off all negotiations with the British government. The Northern Ireland Assembly, the last local forum, may be abolished after four years of failure. Politics could return to the streets amid increasing fears that police will be unable or unwilling to exert control.

Protestant outrage grows from the Anglo-Irish Agreement, introduced by the British and Irish governments in November to provide a new framework for settlement of the centuries-old problem. It was to bring “peace, stability and reconciliation” to Ulster but polarization between Protestant and Catholic communities is growing.

Before the agreement, the 40% Catholic minority complained about alienation from the government, but now there is even greater resentment among the Protestants who held control until London took over direct rule in 1972.

The Protestants, ironically known as loyalists, have turned against British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher for giving the Irish government a say in the day-to-day running of Ulster. The agreement calls for a consultative role, but the wording is so vague--governments must make “determined efforts”--that it can be read as joint authority.

This is anathema to Protestants who see the republic as a reason for much of the Irish Republican Army violence, a major cause of 2,500 deaths over the past 17 years. Protestant leaders say they will never accept the agreement.

Through March and April there were almost nightly attacks on the homes of policemen. More than 300 families suffered in raids aimed at intimidating policemen who may be ordered to curb Protestant parades; 60 people had to flee their homes.

At the same time, mobs turned new attention to their traditional enemies in the Catholic community, damaging many homes and churches. The campaign was called off in response to pleas from local politicians, but not before a Protestant woman recently married to a Catholic was shot and killed in bed.

So far, politicians have distanced themselves from the intimidation, claiming it undermines efforts to change Thatcher’s mind. But as the marching season approaches--there will be 1,800 parades between June and September--Protestant politicians step up their opposition. In defiance of a court ruling, they have led a boycott of 18 of the 26 local government councils, bringing them to a standstill. Now the Assembly is only used as a propaganda platform and the government has threatened to suspend it.

The Protestant’s trump card was a mini-election in January, when all 15 Unionist MPs resigned from Westminster; then 14 of them were reelected by 73% majorities. Thatcher’s only response was to offer them participation in the Anglo-Irish meetings. They refused, saying, “The only input we want to the agreement is the gelignite to blow it apart.” Such reaction has had a disastrous affect on British public opinion--a recent Gallup poll showed only 26% want Ulster to stay in the United Kingdom.

The leaders of the two Unionist parties, the Rev. Ian Paisley (Democratic Unionist) and James Molyneaux (Official Unionist) are engaged in a dangerous balancing act, trying to persuade followers that they are exerting enough pressure, while warning Thatcher about the dangers of confronting the majority.

Even when Thatcher agreed to reopen talks, the Unionists escalated their opposition; they now recommend non-payment of local taxes and a boycott of goods from the Irish Republic.

Politicians still hope to persuade the British government to back down by nonviolent means but the extremist groups believe that Thatcher will only respond to strong-arm methods.

Through its organization of Protestant work forces at several big Belfast factories, the 1986 Workers Committee turned what the politicians intended to be a peaceful one-day March strike into a day of intimidation and riot.

The workers group has close ties to the two Protestant paramilitary organizations--the Ulster Defense Assn. and the Ulster Volunteer Forces--and a relationship with some politicians through the Ulster Coordinating Committee. A significant new element is the Ulster Clubs network, founded by a lay preacher whose policeman father was killed by republicans. Much of the rioting in Belfast has followed Ulster Clubs rallies.

The political leaders aim to replace the hated accord with a plan for devolved government, including a role for Catholic nationalists. But the powerful extremists resist any power-sharing. Paramilitary leaders back an independent Ulster, although they do not explain how they will deal with 600,000 Catholics, or replace the $2.25-billion subsidy from Britain.

Despite threatened splits between moderate and militant opponents of the agreement, there is no break in the Unionist front; in their mythology, Dublin is the enemy and any consultation with the republic is, as a leading Methodist preacher said, “like asking a Jew to eat pork.”

The Catholics are doing their best to stay out of the argument, to let the British battle the Protestant community. In 1912 and 1974, British governments had tried to impose a settlement against Protestant wishes--and then surrendered. Even though his community is suffering from the Protestant backlash, there is no hint of surrender on the agreement from John Hume’s Social Democratic and Labor Party, mainly Catholic nationalists. The agreement, for them, represented a historic step forward.

Everything depends on the determination of the two governments to weather the storm, and there is more confidence about them than about the ability of police to stand up to a combination of loyalist pressure and IRA violence.

The police are the wild card; 92% Protestant, they sympathize with loyalist fears. If the police do not contain or reroute the marches this summer, the army might become the front line.

There will be plenty of opportunities for protest--or violence--over the next few months. The Protestant parades on July 12, celebrating the 1690 victory of William III over the Catholic James II, could be the flash point. Or it could be earlier.

Organizers of the marches say they will not be detoured from traditional routes through Catholic areas. The police want to reroute parades to avoid provocation but Protestants believe the officers are acting on instructions from Dublin.

The only way to buy off loyalist anger is a suspension or scrapping of the agreement; both signatories say that cannot be done. The governments may decide that the only honorable course is to persevere, at least until autumn, when a review of the agreement could be justified. In the interim, Northern Ireland Protestants can choose between self-destructive violence--leading eventually to repartition and expulsion from the United Kingdom--or political compromise. By the time the moderates unite, it may be too late to prevent a Lebanon-like situation.