State Votes Tuesday in ‘Year of Opportunity’ : GOP Optimistic on Cranston’s Seat; Controller’s Post Open; Proposition 51 Is the Big Initiative

Californians go to the polls Tuesday in what many political professionals are calling “a year of opportunity.”

The Republicans are so convinced that this year is a good opportunity to knock off Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston in November that no fewer than seven credible GOP candidates stayed in the running for the primary vote.

A rare opportunity to put a new face in a statewide office opened up when Controller Ken Cory chose to retire, setting off a $4-million stampede of ambitions among five state legislators of both major parties.

Deep-Pockets Initiative

The Republicans also think they have a chance in November to clip Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy, so in Tuesday’s primary GOP voters get to choose between former Lt. Gov. Mike Curb and state Sen. H.L. (Bill) Richardson, a standard bearer of the party’s ultraconservative wing.

The big initiative on this ballot is Proposition 51, which its supporters--led by insurance companies, Gov. George Deukmejian and many municipal officials--see as an opportunity to significantly tailor the “deep pockets” of municipalities in major lawsuits.

The proposition, which is opposed by trial lawyers and such Democratic politicians as Atty. Gen. John Van de Kamp and Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, would link a co-defendant’s share of pain and suffering damages to that defendant’s share of the blame. At present, co-defendants only slightly to blame can be forced to pay all the damages if other defendants are unable to pay.

Some voters may be surprised on Tuesday to find that one person who will not be on the ballot is Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird. Although the campaign to defeat her began months ago, she is actually on the November ballot.

Republican Deukmejian and Democrat Bradley are on the ballot in the governor’s race--but not head to head. Tuesday’s election, in which the two have only token opposition from members of their own parties, will set the scene for a November general election rematch of their 1982 battle for the governorship.

The polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

All of those on Tuesday’s ballot could face a common enemy--voter apathy. The secretary of state’s office predicts that only 47% of California’s 12 million registered voters will turn out. In Los Angeles County, the registrar-recorder’s office expects 50% of the county’s 3.3 million voters to show up at the polls.

One contest where turnout could be significant is that for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination. Rep. Ed Zschau of Los Altos, one of the front-runners in the race, has acknowledged that his candidacy--anchored in the “new” Republican moderates under the age of 45--could be in trouble if the turnout is low.

A low turnout could favor another front-runner in the Senate race, former TV commentator Bruce Herschensohn of Los Angeles, who is counting on strong support from traditional Republican conservatives who, in the words of one consultant, “will crawl to the polls if they have to.”

The Republican U.S. Senate race has been one of the most spirited in years and is distinguished by the fact that so many credible candidates stayed in the race to the end, rather than deciding they could not win and swinging behind one or two other candidates.

Undecided Voters

Six of the seven base their scenarios for winning on this theory: With so many serious candidates on the ballot and with polls showing a large undecided bloc up to the end, any of them could squeak by on the strength of a last-minute shift by the undecided voters.

In addition to Zschau and Herschensohn, those holding up hope for victory are state Sen. Ed Davis of Valencia, a former Los Angeles police chief; Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich; Rep. Bobbi Fiedler of Northridge and Menlo Park Assemblyman Robert F. Naylor. Economist Arthur Laffer of Rollings Hills Estates has been less sanguine about his chances in recent weeks but continues to cross his fingers.

“A campaign for such a major office in California has never broken as late as this one,” said Sal Russo, chief campaign consultant for Antonovich.

With Zschau and Herschensohn leading in mid-May statewide polls, California Republican strategists are watching the Senate race closely to see if Tuesday’s vote tells them anything about their party as it heads into the post-Reagan era.

Herschensohn, 53, impressed many conservatives with his eloquent speeches calling for U.S. superiority in the arms race and adherence to the conservative social values espoused by a leading Herschensohn supporter, Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.).

Other GOP audiences were equally impressed with the “futuristic” message of Zschau, 46, who called for conservatism on fiscal issues, moderation on social issues and a “mean but lean” national defense. Zschau attracted a number of GOP contributors and volunteers--particularly in Orange County--who have never participated in a political campaign.

Zeroing In on Cranston

Fueling the Republican Senate race for almost two years has been the belief in the GOP that this was a nomination worth having. The reasoning is that Cranston, 71, is vulnerable because he has been in the Senate a long time--18 years--and because he drew attention to his liberalism with his ill-fated Democratic presidential candidacy in 1984.

If the Senate race developed slowly, the race for state controller came together in only 48 hours. That was how much time candidates had to make the March 7 filing deadline when Cory made his surprise announcement that he is retiring.

Jumping in were two well-heeled “new-breed” Democrats who fancy themselves as representing the next generation of leadership in California--Assemblyman Gray Davis of Los Angeles, the chief of staff to former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., and state Sen. John Garamendi of Walnut Grove, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1982. Assemblyman Alister McAlister of San Jose made it a legislative threesome in the Democratic primary, arguing that the other two would use the ministerial controller’s office as only a rung on their climb up.

Republican legislators also sensed opportunity here. Assemblyman Don Sebastiani of Sonoma is up against state Sen. William Campbell of Hacienda Heights for the controller nomination on the GOP side.

Millions of dollars are being spent in all these races, most of it on television advertising. More than $8 million will have been spent in the Republican U.S. Senate race alone. Another $4 million will have been poured into the controller’s race by the candidates in both parties.

Curb, Richardson

In the Republican race for lieutenant governor, Curb, of Los Angeles, who held the job from 1978-82, will spend at least $1.3 million while his opponent, Richardson, of Glendora, will spend about $1 million. Incumbent McCarthy has no primary election opponent.

But the money leader will easily be the battle over Proposition 51, where spending by both sides is expected to top $10 million. The record for spending by both sides in an initiative battle was $10.4 million in 1984 in the fight over Proposition 36, a tax-cutting measure promoted by Howard Jarvis. Close behind was the $10.3 million spent that year in the battle over Proposition 39, a reapportionment initiative.

This year the Proposition 51 campaign has been dominated by controversial advertising, with each side charging the other with running deceptive commercials.

Also on the ballot Tuesday are 10 other statewide ballot initiatives and a California Board of Equalization seat. And voters throughout the state will select nominees for all 80 Assembly seats and 20 of the 40 state Senate seats.

State Treasurer Jesse M. Unruh, Secretary of State March Fong Eu, and Atty. Gen. Van de Kamp, all Democrats, are running in the primary with no major opposition for the jobs they now hold. There are no Republicans seeking the chance to face Unruh in November, while Orange County Supervisor Bruce Nestande heads a list of Republicans seeking the chance to face Eu. Van de Kamp will be matched against one of three GOP contenders, all of whom are struggling for visibility.

Bill Honig has token opposition for his nonpartisan job as California superintendent of public instruction.

In Los Angeles County, there is a race for assessor that has drawn 12 candidates and four county Charter amendments. Supervisors Ed Edelman and Pete Schabarum are seeking reelection with no strong opposition, as is Sheriff Sherman Block.