Thais to Elect Parliament on Sunday : Prem Relying on Vote, Coalitions to Hold Premiership

With all the trappings of electoral politics in the developing world--rallies, sound trucks, vote buying and ghost voters--Thailand will elect a new Parliament on Sunday, an act that in itself adds a bit more cement to the country’s democratic structures.

Reaching even that point has not come easily to this nation of nearly 55 million. In the half-century since the absolute monarchy was overthrown, the country has endured 15 coups and written seven constitutions. There have been 16 prime ministers, nine of them civilians, but military men have held the post for all but seven years since the constitutional monarchy was established in 1932.

And despite the fervent campaigning now entering its last few days, many Thais believe the struggle for power here ended two months ago, on May 27, when Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanonda, a retired general, sacked his main political rival, Gen. Arthit Kamlang-ek, as army commander.

The ambitious, 61-year-old Arthit retains the largely powerless post of armed forces chief of staff until Sept. 1, but Prem, 66, has now consolidated his support in the military.

Eye for Jugular

Prem has been attacked on the political trail as boring and indecisive, a man who does little but smile when confronted with a crisis. But the onetime cavalry officer proved again his eye for the jugular. Arthit reportedly was instrumental in the fall of Prem’s government when a tax bill was voted down May 1, leading to the call for new elections nine months early.

“The whole episode was reflective of an intrabureaucratic power struggle which could be termed a coup d’etat of sorts,” political scientist Likhit Dhiravegin said. “(The) election is only to complete the overall political process which serves as a legitimizing role for the semi-open political system of the halfway democracy.”

But if the analysts say the ball game of power politics has been decided, the 3,811 candidates for the 347 seats in the House of Representatives--there is also an appointed Senate--do not seem to have heard the whistle. Many are determined to deny Prem another term as prime minister.

“The leader of the party which wins the most seats should be prime minister,” Bhichai Rattakul, head of the Democratic Party, said recently. The Democrats are favored to capture the most seats.

Never Elected to Office

Prem, a so-called “outsider,” has never held elective office. But in the two elections since he was first appointed prime minister in 1980, coalition governments have been unable to choose a leader from the House, and the job has gone to Prem. Now Thailand’s longest-serving prime minister, he has relied on stalemate among elected politicians as well as the support of the military and of what Thais call the “higher institution,” the Royal Family.

The same prospect faces the winning parties in Sunday’s voting. Bhichai, a possible political choice, lacks the support of the military, which is suspicious of the Democrats for their liberal outlook toward Thailand’s Communist neighbors, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. Besides, a member of the party said, revealing an ethnic undercurrent in Thai society, “Bhichai is Chinese. And a merchant.”

“Frankly,” said a Bangkok-based Western diplomat, “there is nobody else (except Prem).”

The general himself, in an interview with the newspaper The Nation, said: “I have been saying, and I am stressing it again, that I have no political ambitions and greed. . . . I think your question on whether I would accept the premiership if the majority of the House supports me is too premature.”

Political Snapshot

So with Prem keeping his accustomed silence, the race goes on. A tour of southern Thailand, the Democrats’ stronghold and, coincidentally, the prime minister’s home region, paints a fair picture of Thai campaign politics.

In Surat Thani, a coastal city, five seats are up for grabs. At a Democrat headquarters, local party director Anond Thaweesilp sat in an upstairs office lined with charts, maps and posters.

His campaign budget is about $23,000, most of it coming from national headquarters in Bangkok, he said. Most of the money will go for posters, rental of speaker systems and other campaign paraphernalia, Anond said. None, he said, will be spent on buying votes, but he accused rival parties of what he called “money dumping.”

Money dumping, Thai-style, takes some unique forms, southern politicians say. In a time-tested one, called the gambling scheme, a boss of Party A will engage a supposedly neutral agent. The agent goes to a village, calls out the headman and tells him that he will bet 100,000 baht (about $3,800) that Party A cannot win there. The headman takes the bet, asks other men in the village to share it, and all then work like beavers to elect the candidates of Party A. Among gambling-mad Thais, the scheme serves the purpose of buying votes without a direct payoff.

Overmatched Opposition

In Surat Thani, the major opposition is expected to come from the Social Action Party. But party headquarters was no match for the Democratic machine. A visit there found two or three men watching boxing on television.

In nearby Nakhom Si Thammarat, Surin Pitsuwat is a first-time candidate for the Democrats. Surin is leaving the ivory tower of the political science department of Bangkok’s Thammasat University to run for office.

Politics in the provinces, he observed, “is less gentlemanly than I expected.” His opponent is a member of what the local papers call an “influential family.”

“They’re in gambling and prostitution,” Surin asserts.

A graduate of Southern California’s Claremont McKenna College and Harvard University, Surin is a Muslim and running in a constituency with a 15% Muslim vote. One of the issues that he faces is an order by Prem’s education minister, also a Democrat, that Muslim schools must display a likeness of Buddha. The order has the Muslim community up in arms.

Religious Sentiment

Surin tries to explain that there is flexibility in the minister’s order, all the time playing on Muslim sentiment himself.

“I use symbolism,” he said. “I tell them I will quote from the Koran on the floor of Parliament.”

In the southern cities, as elsewhere in Thailand, local issues are foremost: problems with the government’s agricultural, fishing and mining policies. The voters expect their representatives to bring home favorable regulations and development projects.

In the city of Trang, the Democrats have held the parliamentary seats for 18 years. Ta Malikaew, a 58-year-old restaurant owner, says he thinks a Progressive Party candidate will break the Democrats’ hold this time.

“Trang people think this province has been ignored,” he said. “The train service to Trang is the worst in the country.”

Promises Resort

The Progressive Party front-runner in Trang is Phipak Seritham, a Bangkok-based businessman who has promised voters that if elected, he will bring a major development to Trang or else resign. The project, in fact, is a beach resort in which Phipak holds an interest.

Political parties must contest half of the constituencies in the nation in order to appear on the ballot. Phipak’s candidacy is illustrative of the problem facing the parties. The other two Progressives on the ticket are so-called “ghost candidates.”

“I’ve never seen them,” Phipak said. “They’re not campaigning here.”

In the northeast, according to press reports, housewives and other non-politicians have been recruited for a price to fill out the required candidacies for some parties.

Overall, the candidates this year show a change of complexion. In previous elections, lawyers and academics were prominent on the lists. In Sunday’s election, an increased number of retired military officers and businessmen are on the ballots.

Protecting Own Interests

“It appears that these people who used to work outside elective politics now realize that increasingly they must be in Parliament themselves to protect their interests,” one analyst said.

“If military men win seats and some are appointed ministers, that will make younger officers realize there is another way to come to power,” said retired Gen. Saiyud Kerdphol, a former supreme commander.

The election results are expected to be known Monday. Then begins the process of coalition forming, since no party is expected to win the 174 or more seats needed for a majority. The horse-trading over which party gets which ministry is expected to take up to two weeks, and part of the package will be the choice of prime minister.

Meanwhile, the campaigning continues. On Monday, a Bangkok candidate was photographed floating down a canal in a small boat, sailing his flyers ashore as paper airplanes while an aide barked out slogans through a bullhorn.