Strong Growth Predicted in County for Next 15 Years

Orange County is expected to outperform both California and the nation in economic growth and employment through the turn of the century, but will begin the performance with a shaky start, according to economists at Wells Fargo Bank.

“Generally speaking, Orange County will continue to grow in the next 18 months, but certainly at a reduced pace,” said Joseph Wahed, chief economist and senior vice president of the San Francisco-based bank. The period, he said, will be “difficult for the whole economy.”

Still, the Wells Fargo report predicted real gross regional product--or economic growth--will average 4.2% a year for the next 15 years. The county’s gross regional product, which hit $46.4 billion last year, will increase to $85 billion by the end of the century, the bank forecast says.

And Orange County will add 647,000 new jobs through the year 2000, at an average annual rate of 3.1%, according to the forecast.

The Wells Fargo report says the county’s economic health will be reflected in steadily increasing per-capita income. That figure, $18,000 last year, will increase to $26,200 at the end of the century, the report predicts.

For the next 18 months, however, Wahed said he “would be surprised” if the annual employment growth rate in the county “was more than 2% or 2.5% and if real economic growth was more than 2.5% or 3%.”

James L. Doti, dean of Chapman College’s business and management school, foresees an even brighter future for the county. Doti, who monitors the county’s economy with other Chapman economists and regularly publishes forecasts, predicted a 4.5% average economic growth rate and a 3.5% average employment growth through the year 2000.

Doti acknowledged that external factors, such as the crunch in the oil industry, have dragged the county down a bit, but said ripples from some positive occurrences--like the fall of the dollar--haven’t yet made themselves felt in the county’s economy.