Surprising Stability : In Mexico, Chaos Comes . . . Manana

In other countries, calamities of the kind that have afflicted Mexico in recent times have brought on unrest, even revolution. But there has been no such upheaval in Mexico.

There is dissatisfaction. Rich and poor alike seize the slightest opportunity to complain, to attack the government. But militant political action appears to be another matter. In the land of manana, chaos appears to be tomorrows away. Most experts who follow Mexican affairs agree on this.

“There is no major conflict taking place in Mexico that signals the coming of major disturbance,” a Western diplomat here said. “To see anything otherwise is to misunderstand Mexico.”

The stability of Mexico will be much on the minds of Mexican and U.S. officials today as President Miguel de la Madrid meets with President Reagan in Washington for their second meeting of the year.

Seen as a Tinderbox

According to reports from Washington, the CIA considers Mexico a tinderbox on the verge of violence. And the State Department reportedly has begun to share the CIA view because of the depth of Mexico’s economic recession and the government’s apparent failure to restore confidence in its ability to govern.

Yet despite an abundance of recent events that might have touched off violence, calm continues to prevail.

Not long ago the government doubled the price of tortillas. There was widespread grumbling, but no violence. In contrast, the Egyptian government in 1977 announced a slight increase in the price of bread and widespread rioting erupted.

In Mexico, electoral fraud is a fact of life. Even though ballot-box stuffing has generated increasing complaints and some demonstrations in northern border states, there has been nothing like the massive unrest that helped bring down the dictatorship of Ferdinand E. Marcos in the Philippines.

Free of Guerrilla Groups

Corruption and cronyism are widespread, but there is no broad-based movement of the sort that toppled the regime of Anastasio Somoza in Nicaragua. No guerrilla group is known to be operating in Mexico.

With some pride, the Mexican government and the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party have been quick to emphasize the relative serenity that prevails here. In a recent interview with The Times, De la Madrid dismissed as groundless forecasts of coming catastrophe.

In a speech to a group of foreign diplomats in Mexico City, Humberto Hernandez, the head of the party’s foreign relations department, described as exaggerated reports of more serious problems still to come.

“There are no signals of a loss of political stability in Mexico, even though the economic breakdowns are serious and, for five uninterrupted years, have affected the standard of living of the population,” Hernandez said.

Some independent political observers are mystified by Mexico’s relative inertness in the face of mounting economic and political problems.

Robert Pastor, an adviser on national security in the Carter Administration, who just completed a year’s study in Mexico, said: “Scholars and experts can sit down and say, ‘Yeah, something’s going to happen,’ but the truth is, no one knows when or how. It’s unpredictable.”

Explanations for the enduring stability are many and varied. Many attribute it to the Mexican personality. Mexicans, these people say, can put up with a lot before striking back. For others, the reason is historical: The Mexican Revolution ended only 69 years ago, and the country is not eager to repeat the experience.

Not a few observers attribute the stability to the resilience of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, which is known, after its initials in Spanish, as the PRI.

Maintains Loyalty, Control

Manuel Garcia y Griego, a professor at the Colegio de Mexico, a postgraduate institution on the outskirts of Mexico City, said: “Countries in economic crises always walk a tightrope. But most people here are willing to work within the system.”

Garcia y Griego contends that the PRI covers enough political bases to maintain loyalty and control in most of the country, encompassing a wide range of ideological forces from the far right to the far left.

“It is sort of like Mayor (Richard) Daley’s Chicago,” he said. “There are plenty of contending forces under one umbrella.”

In the well-worn tradition of ward politics, the party intervenes to resolve public problems as if it were an agency of the government.

Shortcut to Solutions

People made homeless by Mexico City’s earthquakes last year have often found that dealing through the party can be a shortcut to resolving problems of water, electricity and sanitation at their temporary shelters.

“The PRI is our middleman,” said Jose Refugio, the head of a neighborhood committee in the Tlatelolco district. “We talk to the PRI and the PRI talks to the bureaucracy.”

The government often goes out of its way to show that all kinds of blessings flow from the party. Recently, party organizations were designated official outlets for tortilla coupons, with which the poor buy tortillas at a reduced, government-supported price. In Mexico City, PRI-related unions dispense special transportation tickets good for reduced fares on buses and the subway.

Also, the PRI is a deceptive target. For unlike personalized authoritarian regimes, it is many-headed and changeable.

‘No Central Villain’

“The PRI is a movable target,” Pastor, the former Carter aide, said. “There is no central villain like Marcos to latch on to.”

Elected officials, from the president on down, serve only one term. And the outs hope to become ins--by cooperating with the PRI.

Opposition organizations are fractured and dispersed. The numerous parties of the left have attracted little electoral support except in a few municipalities.

“The left is not a factor at the present time,” said Rafael Segovia, a professor at the Colegio de Mexico and an authority on the PRI.

No Major Violence

With the left floundering, the conservative National Action Party (PAN) has become a gauge of political unrest. PAN supporters in the northern state of Chihuahua charged fraud after the July elections and for the last six weeks have been protesting the outcome. It is not yet clear where their sit-ins, marches, road blocks and hunger strikes will lead.

The question now is whether the campaign will fizzle or whether the government at some point will be forced to give in or crack down. So far, there have been no major incidents of violence, and many are betting that the government can win a prolonged political war of attrition.

“The main danger to the government is letting things get out of hand,” economist Rogelio Ramirez de la O said.

In any event, the National Action Party has limited appeal outside the north. Even in Chihuahua there are neighborhoods and villages where its representatives never campaign.

Ready for Any Trouble

On Election Day, a farmer on the Buenavista cooperative in Chihuahua told a reporter, “No one from National Action has ever visited here.”

When the government is challenged in the streets, it is not shy about flexing its muscle. In the Chihuahua elections, troops were in the streets and ready for any sign of trouble.

During the World Cup soccer tournament last spring, thousands of police patrolled the streets of downtown Mexico City after a celebration turned ugly and groups of young people took to shouting epithets aimed at De la Madrid. When dissident unionists tried to crash the official May Day parade in Mexico City, they were beaten back with tear gas and clubs.

Also, the Mexican government is skilled at offering a carrot along with the stick. When fares were increased recently on Mexico City’s transportation system, passengers were given the opportunity to buy coupons that softened the impact. Similar coupons were issued when the price of tortillas was increased.

Yet Skepticism Exists

This is not to say that the seeds of unrest have not been sown, and that they may not flower.

The government is caught up in a credibility crisis. Almost everything officials say and do is regarded with skepticism.

There has been massive government borrowing from foreign banks over the last 15 years, and the money is seen to have been squandered if not stolen.

“We have been ruled by wretched presidents who borrowed millions for their own pockets,” said Abel Corona, a 77-year-old cobbler. “We spend millions and millions to pay it back, and I can’t even fill a pantry with food.”

Official perfidy has been put on open display at the trial of a former Mexico City police chief, Arturo Durazo. He is charged with extortion and illegal possession of guns. So far, the proceedings have been marked by the almost unanimous retraction of pretrial testimony by policemen who served under Durazo. The retractions are making a mockery of the government’s much-heralded crackdown on corruption.

Distrust Is Growing

In July, the government promised that despite the introduction of a new blend of low-pollution gasoline, prices for fuel would not go up. Then, last Friday, the Finance Ministry announced an increase of 47% in the price of gasoline.

Columnist Jose Cabrera Parra observed recently in the influential daily Excelsior, “To say one thing and do another . . . has introduced the germ of distrust of official sincerity, a germ which is beginning to grow and extend throughout the social structure of Mexico.”

For some, this distrust may mean the beginning of the end of Mexico’s vaunted stability. But not today. Perhaps manana.