U.S. Grows by 2.2 Million in ‘85; Birth Rate Edges Up

Americans added more than 1.6 million people to the nation’s population last year, although they no longer are having enough children to replace themselves, new census figures show.

The U.S. population was put at 240,468,000 as of Jan. 1 of this year, representing an overall rise of 2,246,000 during 1985. Births exceeded deaths by 1.67 million and immigration was estimated at 577,000 people.

The birth rate rose somewhat in 1985, although it did not approach the levels of the post-World War II years, the report showed. Even with the 1985 increases, for the 13th consecutive year one important measure, called the total fertility rate, remained below the level at which Americans would just replace themselves.

If this trend were to continue for a long period, the U.S. population eventually would begin to shrink.

The total fertility rate is an estimate of the number of children that would be born to 1,000 women in their lifetimes if birth rates for the year remained constant.

Replacement Level Set

A fertility rate of 2,100, considered a replacement level, allows for two children to replace the mother and father and an extra 100 children to replace those who do not survive to adulthood.

In 1985, the nation’s total fertility rate was 1,837, according to the new report, “Estimates of the Population of the United States and Components of Change.”

For example, if 2,000 parents produced 1,837 babies in their lifetimes, the long-term result would be 163 fewer people in the country. In the short term, however, the net population count would be 3,837, an increase only while both parents and their children were living.

In 1985, the total fertility rate rose slightly, from 1,814 in 1984, but it has not been at a replacement level since 1971, when it stood at 2,267. The rate peaked in 1957, at 3,760.

Population growth continues, however, because of the “baby boom” that began in 1946 and lasted through the 1960s. People born in that period are now in their prime childbearing years, so there is a population bulge in the group most likely to be having children.

Births at Peak Period

Thus, although the statistics estimate how many children women will have in their lifetimes, the fact that many women are now in their peak child-rearing years means that many of those predicted offspring are currently being born.

As these women grow older, the year-to-year birth rate can be expected to decline.

Even with total fertility well below the replacement level, it is expected to take about 40 years for the overall population to stop increasing, the report concluded. That does not take into account immigration, which also adds to the population--and in a far different manner than in the past.

The immigration estimate of 577,000 was down slightly from that of 1984 and was well below the 1980 level. In that year, Census Bureau officials said, the arrival of many Cubans and Haitians pushed the number of immigrants to the highest level since World War I and the Great Depression.