FERNANDO’S FADEAWAY? : THE BID FOR 20 : Dodger Pitcher Needs Only 4 Wins in His Last 7 Starts, but He Has Missed It Before

Fernando Valenzuela, who leads the National League in victories with 16, should have 7 starts left in the Dodgers’ remaining 35 games, including one here against the New York Mets Sunday.

The left-hander, at 25, would appear to be a lock to win 20 games for the first time in his career.

A lock, that is, until you take a look at Valenzuela’s record in the last seven starts in each of his previous five seasons as a Dodger.

Last season at this time, Valenzuela’s record was identical to this season’s, 16-9. In his next start, he went 11 scoreless innings in a memorable duel with Dwight Gooden that the Mets finally won in 13 innings, 2-0, against Tom Niedenfuer.

Valenzuela won his following start, against the Atlanta Braves, but twisted an ankle in Cincinnati and didn’t win another game the rest of the regular season, finishing with a 17-10 record. In his stoical fashion, however, Valenzuela never admitted that his ankle might have been bothering him.

In the four seasons before 1985, Valenzuela’s record for his last seven starts was the same each time: two wins, three losses, two no-decisions.

The closest he has come to winning 20 was in 1982, when he finished 19-13 and had a loss and two no-decisions in his last three starts.

His record down the stretch would suggest that Valenzuela, who leads the league in complete games and is third in innings pitched this season (and has never been lower than the top five in either category), wears down by season’s end.

By September, games such as the 163-pitch effort he made in April against the Giants in San Francisco seemingly have taken their toll.

But just when fatigue appears to be a logical conclusion, a look at Valenzuela’s postseason record stands in apparent contradiction.

In eight postseason starts, including playoffs and World Series, Valenzuela has a 5-1 record, having suffered his only loss in Game 2 of the 1981 National League playoffs when he was beaten by the Montreal Expos, 3-0.

Last season, Valenzuela belied fears of a tired shoulder by beating St. Louis ace John Tudor in the opening game of the league playoffs, 4-1. He also pitched in Game 5 and was not involved in the decision as the Cardinals won, 3-2.

“He’s a durable individual,” said Dodger pitching coach Ron Perranoski, who doesn’t believe there’s a perceptive dropoff in Valenzuela’s late-season efforts.

“His won-lost record may not be the most accurate indicator of the way he’s pitching.

“He comes close to leading the league in complete games every year. That takes a strain, number one, and it also means more times that you’re liable to get beat.

“But Freddy’s the kind of guy who wants the ball every five days. He has a lot of pride in his work.”

Last season was the only time there was a measurably higher difference in Valenzuela’s earned-run average over his last seven starts, 2.77, and in his first 28 starts, 2.37. In two seasons, 1981 and ‘84, Valenzuela’s late-season ERA actually was lower, lending support to Perranoski’s contention that the won-lost column can be an inaccurate barometer.

Maybe that’s why Valenzuela is so reluctant to discuss the subject of 20-win seasons, although after beating the Philadelphia Phillies, 3-1, Monday night and ending a personal three-game losing streak, Valenzuela allowed as how every pitcher would like to win 20.

“He’s a money pitcher,” Perranoski said. “If I had one game to win, I’d want him to pitch it.”

Perhaps for Valenzuela, a pitcher who never misses a turn, this will be his turn to win 20. Just don’t count on it.

HOW VALENZUELA RATES IN ENDURANCE Fernando Valenzeula’s ranking among National League pitchers in innings pitched and completed games since 1981:

Year IP CG 1986 Third (213) First (15) 1985 Third (72) Second (14) 1984 Second (261) Second (12) 1983 Fifth (257) Fourth (9) 1982 Second (285) Second (18) 1981* First (92) First (11)

* Strike-shortened season.

VALENZUELA’S RECORD IN LAST 7 STARTS OF SEASON

Overall Last 7 Starts Year W-L ERA W-L CG IP H ER SO BB ERA 1985 17-10 2.45 1-1 0 48 38 15 31 22 2.77 1984 12-17 3.03 2-3 3 58 46 19 49 24 2.95 1983 15-10 3.75 2-3 1 49 45 21 46 21 3.83 1982 19-13 2.87 2-3 3 54 47 19 44 18 3.15 1981* 13-7 2.48 2-3 2 55 43 13 43 16 2.12

* Strike-shortened season.