Fall Campaigns Shifting Into High Gear : Cranston Turns Tables, Makes Zschau’s Voting Record an Issue

As California’s U. S. Senate race enters the crucial fall phase, things look upside down.

Not so long ago political analysts said the issue would be Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston, a 72-year-old liberal with 18 years of votes to defend, many of them for expensive government programs.

He figured to be especially vulnerable against the man the Republicans picked in June--Ed Zschau, a 46-year-old Los Altos congressman with a solidly conservative voting record on fiscal matters.

But it is Zschau who has become the issue as California’s Senate race proves once again that politics is a game of expectations.

At a Labor Day picnic in Pleasonton on Monday, Cranston made it clear that he will continue to try to make Zschau the issue. He charged that the congressman’s House voting record was “so inconsistent, that I’ve never in all my life seen anything like his wishy-washy stands.” But there was no response in kind from Zschau, who started his Labor Day by running in a three-mile race in Los Altos and then flew south for a picnic with supporters in Santa Monica.

Next week President Reagan will help Zschau raise more than $1.5 million at one Los Angeles dinner. Zschau’s other fund raising is ahead of schedule, and just as voters start to focus on the campaign, he is bringing in two of the biggest talents in the party to get out his message.

Yet some insiders are writing Zschau off because he failed to live up to the expectations he raised when he came from virtual obscurity to win the Republican primary in June.

He seemed defensive all summer as Cranston assailed him for changing his mind on key House votes. And just when the attacks were at their peak, Zschau handed Cranston a gift by returning from a visit to Israel and waffling for days over whether he would support future arms sales to Saudi Arabia. He finally said he would oppose the sales, a change in position.

Cranston Relentless

Cranston has always been relentless, but this summer he has performed beyond all expectations, hitting Zschau with dazzling television commercials and well-researched attacks. Climbing in and out of tiny campaign planes, holding forums around the state on such issues as child care and veterans’ benefits, Cranston is showing a level of energy that amazes even members of his staff.

On Monday, Cranston started with an early-morning labor breakfast in Los Angeles and then flew to Northern California and Fresno for similar events.

Longtime Cranston adviser Mickey Kantor thinks the senator’s dominance in the first three months of the campaign may have been inevitable.

“Alan has done three things exceptionally well,” Kantor said. “First, he has kept in touch with his base, the Democratic coalition that involves labor, minorities, environmentalists and parts of business.

“Second, he knows that California is more than a media state. His community forums and private meetings over the last two years created a ripple effect that said to the voter, ‘This is a public figure who has a connection with how we live.’

“And finally, Alan has raised a huge amount of money by just working very hard. So having done all these things early, he was free the day after the primary to go after Zschau and put him on the defensive.”

$7 Million on Hand

Cranston, who has already raised more than $7 million, had $2 million in the bank the day after the GOP primary.

Zschau, on the other hand, entered the general election battle flat broke and lacking a unified Republican base. Many conservatives were dismayed when their favorite, Los Angeles commentator Bruce Herschensohn, finished second in the primary.

A California Poll in late July found that Cranston led Zschau 51% to 38%, an increase of four points since a May match-up, when Cranston led 47% to 38%. The good news for Zschau was that while Cranston has converted 4% of the undecided, Zschau has not slipped from 38% despite the summer’s attacks.

And Zschau is proving to be a much tougher foe for Cranston than H. L. Richardson was in 1974 or Paul Gann in 1980. At this point in 1974, the California Poll had Cranston leading Richardson 59% to 26%. He led Gann at this stage by 55% to 28%.

Too Soon to Tell

But the best news for Zschau--and the worst for Cranston--may be that the voters haven’t really focused yet, according to Mark DiCamillo, managing director of the California Poll.

“The Cranston-Zschau race has been going at an earlier clip than usual,” DiCamillo said, “but people really haven’t been listening that closely. The larger share of the body politic doesn’t pay much attention until the last month or two. . . . Zschau will make his bid, no doubt about it, and it will happen in the latter stages of the campaign.

“Right now only 56% of the people know who Zschau is. So the question is, what happens when 95% of the people know who Zschau is?”

In an effort to capitalize on the increased name identification he will get in the next two months, Zschau has hired Nevada film maker Sig Rogich to do his new commercials. Even Cranston’s advisers praise Rogich’s work for President Reagan’s campaign in 1984.

Sentimental Ads

In particular they cite the lush and sentimental ads that began with the line, “It’s morning in America” and credited the President with turning the country around.

Also helping Zschau shape his message will be Kenneth L. Khachigian, one of the President’s favorite speech writers and a longtime adviser to Gov. George Deukmejian.

Zschau campaign manager Ron Smith, praised by his fellow consultants for his strategy in the primary, saw the kudos turn into criticism as Cranston dominated the summer.

But Smith, who is still clearly in charge of the campaign, responded: “They all said we could never win the primary, that we were going on TV too early back in March. But look what happened. We won. Ed Zschau is a strong finisher.”

In the end it will get down to hard numbers, and both campaigns have demographers figuring the angles.

A major question now, according to a number of analysts, is whether Zschau, who normally is more comfortable on the high road, will launch a strong enough attack on Cranston in the weeks ahead.

“Zschau cannot win this thing unless he really goes after Cranston,” said one GOP consultant who requested anonymity. “He has to hold up specific votes by Cranston over the last 18 years and convince the voters that Cranston is out of step.”

But there was no sign of aggression Monday, as Zschau devoted his Labor Day to light-hearted athletics, avoiding any attacks on Cranston. After the three-mile run at Los Altos, Zschau attended the picnic with supporters in Santa Monica, where he ran in an egg race.

Pulling Them Together

Zschau must first consolidate the conservative and progressive wings of the Republican Party in order to get the most out of the 38% registration the GOP has in California.

The California Poll showed Cranston getting a third of the progressive GOP voters. But Zschau contends that will change when these people learn more about him, particularly his pro-choice stand on abortion and his support for a moratorium on offshore drilling.

Although some conservative Republicans have been lukewarm toward Zschau, “they will be with him when it counts--on election day,” predicted Thomas Fuentes, chairman of the Orange County Republican Party.

“There are now 190,000 more Republicans than Democrats in Orange County and the gap is growing every week,” Fuentes said. “Orange County will deliver the state for Ed Zschau.”

Needs the Moderates

To win, however, Zschau must also attract a chunk of the moderate and conservative Democrats and independents, who he hopes will like his business background and stingy approach to the federal budget.

For Cranston, the base has always been progressive Democrats. Now he is going after like-minded Republicans and independents with his strong environmental stands, his call for strong sanctions against South Africa and his opposition to U.S. aid for the Nicaraguan contras .

Cranston is also reaching out to a special bloc of voters--the many veterans who live in California. Although the conservatism of some in this group would ordinarily put them at odds with Cranston, the senator is skillfully touting his work for them in his 17 years on the Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs.

Difference in Styles

Out on the stump, the difference in the styles of the two candidates is striking.

Zschau promises leadership to reduce the federal deficit and stimulate economic growth, but he mentions few other issues. Mainly he says it is time for a change and attacks Cranston as a representative of “the old politics, in which you demonstrate your commitment to somebody by showing how much money you can spend on them.”

Cranston, by contrast, talks about issues everywhere he goes. The senator charges that Zschau’s “inconsistent” voting record shows that he has no “guiding principles.”

After watching the newcomer Zschau spend $2 million on television ads and take the Republican primary, Cranston recently pleaded with representatives of the California Broadcasting Assn. to “dig beneath the images and sounds of our television and radio ads and explain the critical choices in this campaign.”

Zschau says the critical choices would come out in a series of televised, one-on-one debates. So far, Cranston has insisted on including the three minor party candidates as well, although he recently acknowledged he does not know their names.