Analysis : Zschau Slugging Away From Deep in Political Mire

Ed Zschau wanted to politely debate his way to the United State Senate. But Alan Cranston put an end to that. Now, with a mere 42 days until the election, Cranston’s bare-knuckle defense of his office has brought Zschau deep into the political slough, where he is slugging back for all he can.

A Republican, Zschau believed that he would appeal to independents and moderate Democrats. But his hands are full right now trying to shore up his base of GOP support in the face of determined undermining by Democrat Cranston.

Zschau, a former businessman, said he wanted to bring some business sense to politics. But try as he might, he enters the final six weeks of the race bedeviled by organizational kinks. These are all the more glaring by comparison to the roller-bearing smoothness of the organization assembled by Cranston.

As odd as it may seem, U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston has spent the summer and first weeks of fall directing two campaigns for the U.S. Senate--his and Rep. Ed Zschau’s.

Cranston has shaped everything from the unmercifully negative tone of the campaign down to the race’s most memorable verbal exchanges.

“He has no compass; no guiding star,” Cranston said about his opponent.

“Cranston has a compass, all right. It always points left. And his guiding star is the Big Dipper,” Zschau retorted.

The result of all this has been a double-digit lead for Cranston in independent public opinion polls as autumn began.

Not to panic, says Zschau. It’s still too early in this non-presidential election year to interest anybody except insiders in the capriciousness of campaigns. And Zschau gamely promises that he is up to the task, even if this election is not to be won or lost on his terms.

“This is not my style,” Zschau said.

“But I want to add this: I am prepared to do what is required to win. I would not want to convey the impression that I’m not going to do what is required. And I’m going to do it well. There is some concern out there among my friends . . . that I’m not up to the challenge to be the tough, negative, attack kind of guy required to expose the record of an 18-year incumbent.

“Although its not my natural style, there’s a whole lot of things that one has to do in a job that are uncomfortable.”

So much for Zschau’s desire to ride the high road. So much for his “rope-a-dope” theory that “Cranston is going to punch away and by September, I think, his arms are going to get tired.” And so much for Zschau’s pledge of a month ago “to be more myself” for the rest of the campaign. All these ideas were junked after a period of brooding and self-reevaluation around Labor Day.

Zschau and his handlers decided that their hopes rested in counter-punching as sharply as Cranston. Their private polls told them their targets. They began to try to paint Cranston as soft on drugs and soft on terrorism, and a big spender to boot.

Outspending Cranston

Since then, Zschau has been outspending Cranston two-to-one on television advertising designed to shake voters’ faith in the three-term Democrat. In total, Zschau has budgeted a go-for-broke $2 million in television advertising this month alone. By the roughest of averages, this means that every television-watching Californian will see 20 to 25 anti-Cranston commercials in September.

The new strategy quickly fortified Zschau’s core of supporters.

“He was a competitive ice skater, so I knew there was a will to win in there somewhere. Now you see it bubbling up,” said one relieved backer who asked to speak anonymously.

Republican National Chairman Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr. reflected the come-from-behind mood when he spoke to reporters recently. “If the election were held today, I would think it would probably be won by Mr. Cranston. . . . (But) I think it’s just getting to the point . . . that the campaign is moving. I believe it’s winnable. Mr. Cranston still has some of the biggest negatives of any incumbent United States Senator of either party running for political office.”

Shaky Natural Base

GOP strategists said the negative commercials hit hardest with Republican voters. And this natural base has been unexpectedly shaky for Zschau. For instance, the Los Angeles Times Poll of California voters earlier this month found that Republicans, by measurable margins, believed that Cranston was the stronger leader and had a clearer focus.

This follows nearly four months of Cranston attacks on Zschau’s character and motives.

Findings like those in the Times poll have required Zschau to focus more on being a Republican than on reaching out to Democrats. His recent speeches, for example, are thick with associations with President Reagan and the Reagan agenda. “I told the President the other night at dinner, you deserve better,” Zschau tells audiences.

Zschau must eventually reach out to Democrats, however. The latest voter registration figures from the secretary of state’s office show Republicans, although gaining 0.5% in voter registration since June, still are outnumbered by Democrats in California 38% to 51%.

Right-Wing Sniping

Meanwhile, Zschau continues to suffer persistent if feeble sniping from restless elements of the GOP’s right wing. Critics such as Sen. H. L. Richardson (R-Glendora) complain of his supposed “liberal” record and say that Zschau “doesn’t offer a strong enough alternative for Democrats.”

If these challengers were not enough, Zschau has been dogged by a campaign organization that, despite earnest intentions, has yet to click with precision.

Erratic press relations and uneven scheduling have meant that some campaign developments favorable to Zschau have been under publicized. And even staunch supporters complain about an organization in which scheduling is conducted from Washington, D.C., while the campaign director works in Los Altos and the press and daily management is conducted from Los Angeles.

‘Recipe for Madness’

“It’s a recipe for madness,” said one independent political professional.

The brightest spot in the Zschau campaign, to hear his lieutenants tell it, remains the candidate’s phenomenal fund-raising capability.

Until federally required campaign reports are filed on Oct 15, these claims cannot be verified. But Zschau boasts that he has raised $6.5 million since his primary election victory on his way to $10 million to $12 million, while Cranston acknowledges raising perhaps only half that amount or maybe a little more during that period.