Uncertain Politics Put Western States on Edge

By BILL CURRY

Oct. 2, 1986 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

OROFINO, Ida. —

Six years ago, Mike Lee voted for Republican Steven D. Symms for the U.S. Senate, helping Symms narrowly defeat powerful Democratic Sen. Frank Church and thereby helping the Republicans seize control of the Senate.

Today, as the GOP struggles to retain its 53-47 edge in the Senate, Lee, who drives a logging truck, is uncertain whether he’ll vote to reelect Symms, a rough-edged conservative who supports a right-to-work ballot question that Lee opposes.

Symms needs the vote. He now finds himself locked with Democratic Gov. John V. Evans in a reelection battle that appears to be dead even.

“I don’t know,” Lee says of his eventual choice. “Evans, maybe. Maybe.”

Both Sides on Edge

Such uncertainty has both Republicans and Democrats on edge in the Rocky Mountains this year. Republicans have three Senate seats at stake in the seven states from Arizona and New Mexico north to Montana. The Democrats have one Senate seat and five governorships on the line.

Many of the races promise to be exceedingly close. Six races--two for the U.S. Senate and four for governorships--are virtual toss-ups. Only three races--for the Senate in Arizona and Utah and for governor of New Mexico--seem to be sure-things a month before election day. And one, a potential three-way race for governor of Arizona, could prove to be one of the nation’s most highly charged races.

Some political scientists are also looking beyond the races themselves for clues as to whether the West will be the leading edge of a nationwide political realignment benefiting the Republican Party.

“All of us view 1986 as a key election in the Rocky Mountains,” says Robert C. Benedict, an associate professor of political science at the University of Utah and contributor to a forthcoming book by Westview Press, “The Politics of Realignment.”

“I say we are in the process of that kind of regional realignment. Some people disagree and say, ‘How do you explain the Democratic governors in the West?’

“If indeed the Republicans make gains in the statehouses, it’s another piece in the puzzle (of realignment).”

Five to Leave Office

While Democrats have dominated Western governorships in recent years, five are leaving office this year: Evans here to run for the Senate; Richard D. Lamm in Colorado; Ed Herschler in Wyoming; Toney Anaya in New Mexico; and Bruce Babbitt, a likely presidential contender, in Arizona. Utah’s popular Democratic governor, Scott Matheson, retired two years ago--to be succeeded by a Republican.

All of these Democrats, except the one-term Anaya, were strong, dominant personalities, which enabled them to win in nominally Republican territory but failed to generate a strong party legacy. “Some of the Democratic dominance is one of sheer force of personalities,” says Michele Davis, executive director of the Republican Governors’ Assn. in Washington. “Because of the personalities and the fact they acted like Republicans, it was hard for Republicans to draw a contrast.

“But things are changing. Things are definitely changing. The Western states are a mother lode for us: The perennial vote-getters won’t be around. We’ve got one of the best stables of candidates in years, and Ronald Reagan has created a good atmosphere for Republicans to run.”

Speaking of the Democrats’ durability, author Benedict says, “The (Democratic) governors have been able to oppose the federal government on MX (missiles), high-level nuclear waste, biological weapons in Denver--almost state’s rights issues. Many have turned out to be fiscal conservatives. And they have tended to be politically innovative.

GOP Likely to Gain

“But given the number of Democratic governorships up for election, and the strong number of Republican candidates, the Republicans are likely to gain a majority in the Rocky Mountain area. The era of Democratic dominance is over.”

A state-by-state run down of this year’s major races in the Rocky Mountain West follows. Montana has neither a Senate nor gubernatorial election this year.

ARIZONA

Governor: Until the primary election Sept. 9, Republican hopes for capturing the Statehouse were strong. But the party’s favorite for governor, Arizona House Majority Leader Burton S. Barr, lost the primary to a 62-year-old auto dealer, Evan Mecham, who has lost four previous races for governor and one for the Senate.

The Democrats nominated Carolyn Warner, the state superintendent of public instruction, over a candidate endorsed by Babbitt. But the campaign’s wild card came Sept. 19, when 32,000 signatures were filed to put Bill Schulz, a 55-year-old Democrat, on the ballot as an independent. Schulz had been favored to win the governorship until a year ago, when he withdrew from the contest because of the illness of a daughter.

State Democratic officials challenged the validity of the petition signatures but lost, and Schulz will appear on the ballot. Schulz came within 10,000 votes of upsetting Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1980, and even before his gubernatorial petitions were filed he was only 10 percentage points behind Mecham and Warner in a poll conducted for the Arizona Republic.

Senate: Goldwater is retiring and Republican Rep. John McCain, who spent six years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam, is favored to defeat Richard Kimball, a former member of the Arizona Corporation Commission.

COLORADO

Governor: First elected in 1974, Lamm has served longer than any other Colorado governor. With his dire predictions of economic stagnation, the threat of illegal immigration and his widely publicized remark that the old and infirm have a “duty to die,” “Gov. Gloom,” as he has come to be called, is retiring from politics.

The Republicans have nominated state Sen. Ted Strickland, a more traditional politician given to explaining what appear to be misstatements. “Romer makes hay with Strickland’s contradictions,” a Denver Post headline said of Democratic candidate Roy Romer, the state treasurer.

In what one strategist calls a “sleepy campaign,” the outcome may well depend on how well the Republicans identify voters and get them to the polls.

Senate: Democratic Sen. Gary Hart, who narrowly survived re-election in 1980, is stepping aside to explore another run for the presidency--and the Republican Party, including President Reagan, is waging a vigorous campaign to capture his seat. Republican Rep. Ken Kramer, whose conservative ratings by the National Journal range from 65% to 94%, is running against Democratic Rep. Timothy E. Wirth, whose liberal ratings range from 61% to 89%.

Kramer’s posters declare, “Kramer . . . without a doubt,” and Wirth’s TV commercials claim success in creating jobs, but neither candidate’s campaign seems to have caught fire yet. The National Conservative Political Action Committee, however, is waging a campaign against Wirth that portrays him as too liberal for Colorado.

IDAHO

Governor: While Davis of the Republican Governors’ Assn. sees the race “leaning Republican,” she acknowledges a “soft, warm and fuzzy feeling” among voters for Democratic candidate Cecil D. Andrus. Andrus was governor from 1971 to 1977, when he became Jimmy Carter’s secretary of the Interior, and became identified with policies on water development and other issues many Westerners saw as “anti-West.”

Davis said the challenge for Republican Lt. Gov. David H. Leroy is to “get the message across that what Cecil Andrus did as secretary of the Interior was bad for Idaho--there’s an economic slump.”

What that “really means,” counters the Tribune in nearby Lewiston, “is that Andrus refused to tolerate the economic ruination of the West (by blocking) the plunder of Western resources for a one-generation profit at the expense of generations to come.”

Thus, the divided soul of Idaho--resource extraction and wilderness preservation--is being bared in a campaign in which Republican Leroy faces an uphill battle against the popular Andrus.

Senate: In 1980, Symms defeated Church by only 4,262 votes out of 433,140 ballots cast, and he quickly became identified with the young generation of New Right senators who gave the Republicans control of the Senate for the first time in 28 years. With 22 Republican Senate seats at stake this year, Symms’ is among the more vulnerable.

A TV commercial for his opponent says “John Evans will stand up for Idaho,” picking up the anti-Washington theme that has served other Democrats well in the West. Evans hopes to identify Symms with the conservative policies of the Reagan Administration that, Evans says, have not served Idaho well, whether in agriculture or timber.

And Symms has had to deal with two embarrassments: resuscitation of a picture taken of him with Libyan leader Moammar Khadafi in 1977 and news that he bought silver futures contracts the day before sponsoring legislation designed to lift silver prices.

Still, the outcome of the race may in large part depend on voter turnout generated by a referendum on whether Idaho should retain a law recently passed by the Legislature prohibiting union contracts which require that new hires join the union. It is another aspect in which Idaho typifies this year’s mid-term elections--the lack of a unifying national theme.

“We’re really talking about state and local politics this year,” says Hank Kenski, a political consultant and political scientist at the University of Arizona. “That means a lot of these state elections will hinge on personalities, local issues and fund raising.”

NEW MEXICO

Governor: A series of Democrats, limited constitutionally to one term in office, have dominated the Statehouse since 1970, but in 1986, Republican gubernatorial candidate Garrey E. Carruthers, a former Interior Department official, finds himself holding the high ground against Democrat Ray Powell, an engineer.

The reason is a series of scandals in the Administration of Gov. Toney Anaya, as well as the controversial nature of some Anaya policies. He has, for example, declared the state a sanctuary for refugees from Central America.

UTAH

Senate: Republican Sen. Jake Garn is expected to defeat Democrat Craig Oliver, a real estate agent from Murray.

WYOMING Governor: The state’s popular Ed Herschler, who won 63% of the vote in 1982, is retiring after 12 years in office, and Republican hopes for gaining this Western governorship rest with a member of one of Wyoming’s most politically prominent families, Pete Simpson, brother of Sen. Alan K. Simpson.

Pete Simpson won the nomination by a plurality of only 545 votes, and portrayed himself as a moderate. Meantime, Democrat Mike Sullivan maintains a more pro-business image as a result of his legal work for energy concerns at a major Wyoming law firm. The race is seen as a toss-up.

CAMPAIGN ’86 BATTLEGROUND: THE ROCKIES AT STAKE IN THE REGION

Democrat Republican Total Governorships 5 0 5 U.S. Senate seats 1 3 4 Congressional Seats 6 16 22

STATE-BY-STATE-PROFILES Democrats vs. Republicans Arizona Gov: Evan Mechan (R) vs. Carolyn Warner (no incumbent, was Democrat)

Senate: John McCain (R) vs. Richard Kimball (no incumbent, was Republican)

House: 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat

Colorado

Gov: Ted Strickland (R) vs. Roy Romer (no incumbent, was Democrat)

Senate: Timothy Wirth (D) vs. Ken Kramer (no incumbent, was Democrat)

House: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats

Idaho

Gov: David Leroy (R) vs. Cecil Andrus. (no incumbent, was Democrat)

Senate: Incumbent Steve Symms (R) vs. John Evans