Some Candidates Shun Reagan Ties : Republicans in Key Senate Races Fear Reaction to Policies

When President Reagan made a visit here a few days ago, his personal popularity was running at a healthy 61%--high enough for White House strategists to hope that some of his luster would rub off on Republican Sen. James Abdnor, who is struggling for reelection.

But when Reagan arrived in this stricken farm state, Abdnor was nowhere to be seen. He decided to stay in Washington for a debate on a federal spending bill.

Although Abdnor says he agonized over the choice and missed a GOP rally held in his honor only because he felt duty-bound, he may have made the right decision politically: South Dakota voters oppose Reagan’s farm policies by 2 to 1, polls show, and they identify Abdnor as a supporter of those policies by an even greater margin, 10 to 1.

Awkward for Strategists

Republican candidates in other key Senate races are also distancing themselves from their President, fearing voter reaction against particular Reagan policies. This has proven awkward for White House political strategists, who are convinced that Reagan’s overall popularity can draw enough support to retain GOP control of the Senate. The Republicans need to win 19 of the chamber’s 34 contested seats to maintain their 53-47 majority.

The Reagan association is troublesome in particular for farm-state senators. Iowa Sen. Charles E. Grassley, for one, has built his reputation on being a maverick who opposes Reagan on everything from farm policy to foreign policy. Grassley even went so far as to tell the Republican Senatorial Committee that he did not want the President in his state.

Another Republican senator, Mark Andrews of North Dakota, feels much the same way. His campaign advertising says Reagan does not understand the problems of farmers. Not surprisingly, Reagan will not be visiting North Dakota--or Pennsylvania, for that matter. There, GOP Sen. Arlen Specter, an outspoken critic of most of Reagan’s policies, is a cushy 18 points ahead in the latest polls and wouldn’t dream of jeopardizing his lead with a presidential visit.

Although Reagan correctly argues that his Administration is spending more money on farmers than the previous five administrations combined, voters in the grain belt blame Reagan’s free-market philosophy for the current glut in farm production and the resulting lower prices for farm goods.

For reasons such as this, Democrats like Rep. Thomas A. Daschle--Abdnor’s opponent in South Dakota, who is calling for government controls on production in exchange for higher prices--have been able to gain ground by exploiting the Reagan identification.

One Plays Up Association

In fact, a Labor Day survey of campaign commercials found that only one Republican senator, Jeremiah Denton of Alabama, has prominently played up his association with Reagan in his television ads.

Nevertheless, GOP strategists remain optimistic. White House political director Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. calls Reagan “our ace in the hole” and is counting on the President to generate higher Republican turnout.

Between now and Election Day, Reagan will spend another 10 days or so on the campaign trail. At two states a day, that will put him into at least 20 states where he could be “the 2% solution” in hotly contested races.

“His popularity is still so broad that he adds a couple of percentage points and, in a couple of places, that may be the difference between holding the Senate and not holding the Senate,” said Kenneth Duberstein, a former White House official who is now a private consultant.

Already, Reagan has visited Colorado and Missouri, where the Senate races are considered cliffhangers. On Wednesday, he will travel to North Carolina, where Republican Sen. James T. Broyhill is running neck and neck with popular former Gov. Terry Sanford. And Reagan is expected to reschedule a campaign stop in Reno on behalf of Jim Santini, the GOP candidate who is battling Rep. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to capture retiring Sen. Paul Laxalt’s seat.

Summit Viewed Positively

The announcement that Reagan will meet with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev in Iceland this weekend is regarded as a positive development by Republicans, especially for the GOP incumbents, who hold two-thirds of the contested seats. “It reminds people that things are good and that they’re happy with the guys who are in there,” presidential aide Haley Barbour said.

One White House adviser dubbed the news of the meeting “the October surprise,” campaign lore for the rabbit-in-the-hat trick that candidate Reagan feared former President Jimmy Carter would pull by obtaining release of the hostages in Iran during the 1980 election.

Deal on Daniloff

But Democrats believe that any euphoria surrounding the superpower meeting will be tempered by public awareness that Reagan made a deal with the Soviets to gain the release of American journalist Nicholas Daniloff--something he had vowed not to do.

They also maintain that voters do not choose Senate candidates on the basis of Reagan’s global maneuvering, no matter how lofty the task.

“For the most part, these races are going to be won and lost within state borders,” said Diane Dewhirst, director of communications for the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.

‘No Way Decisive’

“He’s helpful to the Republicans, but he is in no way decisive,” said Sen. George J. Mitchell (D-Me.), chairman of the same committee.

When Reagan announced the Iceland meeting, Mitchell issued a press release welcoming the news but insisting that it would have no significant effect on the Senate races. “The summit meeting and any agreement reached there will no doubt enhance President Reagan’s popularity. But there is no evidence that his popularity can or will be transferred to Republican candidates for Senate.”

Mitchell cited the 1984 election as proof that Reagan is no miracle worker on the campaign trail. Despite Reagan’s landslide reelection victory, the Democrats elected five new senators for a net gain of two Democratic seats.

And, just last month, Mitchell said Reagan failed to garner the necessary 51% support for Rep. W. Henson Moore (R-La.) in Louisiana’s open primary that would have nailed down his election under the state’s unique electoral system. Reagan visited the state twice, the second time just days before the primary. Moore must now face Rep. John B. Breaux (D-La.) in November for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Russell B. Long.

Campaign strategists agree that most races are decided on local issues when there are no overriding national themes to galvanize the electorate as there was with the Vietnam War or Watergate scandal. “It’s a race being fought on every front, state by state,” said Jennifer Duffy, a spokeswoman with the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Debate Each Other

Duffy said she asked one local campaign manager for a rundown of the issues in his candidate’s race, to which he replied: “We don’t have any.” When asked what the contenders for this Senate seat talk about, the manager said: “Each other.”

Republican strategists contend nonetheless that Reagan can have an impact even on local personality contests, which is how many Senate races are shaping up. Republican National Committee Chairman Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr. says a statistical breakdown of the results of 100 Senate races in the last six years shows that one-quarter were decided by 5 percentage points or less, and that 15 of the 100 were decided by 2 percentage points or less.

“So you see, if anyone can come in and generate party activity, raise the necessary money for a campaign and move the numbers two or three percentage points, that has a tremendous potential impact on election results,” Fahrenkopf said.

Reagan has amply demonstrated his fund-raising ability, setting records for the most amount raised in a single campaign event in most of the states he has visited. “He can raise a half-million to $1.5-million in any given state,” said Kenneth L. Khachigian, a longtime Reagan friend who is working for the Senate campaign of Rep. Ed Zschau (R-Los Altos). “Even in California, that’s a lot of money.”

‘Million-Dollar Solution’

Political analyst Norman Ornstein calls Reagan “the million-dollar solution, not the 2% solution.” He agreed with the Democrats that Reagan cannot transfer his popularity to candidates by flying into a state for a couple of hours and telling voters, as he did last week at a rally for former Gov. Christopher S. Bond in Kansas City, Mo.:

“Don’t think you can’t vote for me, because you can, in a way. If you want to vote for me, vote for Kit Bond so that we can have a Republican Senate that will work with me instead of against me, and be around after I’m gone.”

By turning an off-year election into a referendum on himself, Reagan has adopted a high-risk strategy, one that could well backfire and accelerate the inevitable lame-duck decline of his last two years, should the Republicans lose their shaky hold on the Senate.