The Senate Race? Depends on Which Poll You’re Watching

Pre-election polls usually are flayed for taking the suspense out of politics. But, then again, there are times like now in California’s U.S. Senate race when a round of polls adds to the anticipation.

Mervin Field’s California Poll on the U.S. Senate race was released Monday and gave a new burst of hope to Republican challenger Ed Zschau. This followed Sunday’s release of a rival poll by Teichner Associates that was a shot of good news to Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston.

The Field poll, broadcast on KCBS-TV, showed the race for the Senate tightening up sharply. Cranston remained in the lead, but only by 5%. The margin was 44% for Cranston and 39% for Zschau with 14% undecided and 3% for minor party candidates. The Teichner poll had given Cranston a 12-point lead.

For Zschau, a Los Altos congressman, the Field poll results were greeted as ratification of the wisdom of a switch in tactics that began last month. This was to begin attacking Cranston mercilessly and try to put him on the defensive.

“The message we have been getting out is working, and that is that Alan Cranston is too liberal for the electorate,” Zschau spokeswoman Sandra Conlan said. “. . . We’re going to keep on singing the same song. Very simply, it works.”

When Field released his previous poll in early August, Cranston had a 13-point lead, 51% to 38%. As the poll measured it, Zschau’s get-tough strategy, backed by $2 million in television advertising, succeeded in undermining Cranston’s support but not in boosting Zschau’s own standing.

“We’ve got to continue to make Cranston the issue,” said campaign manager Ron Smith, who competed with Zschau and other staffers to see who could grin widest and longest during the day.

In the Cranston campaign, Sunday’s smiles turned to Monday’s furrowed brows at news of the new poll. Press secretary Kam Kuwata emphasized the contradiction between the Field poll and Sunday’s Teichner poll.

“At best, you can say things are inconclusive,” Kuwata said. “It looks from Teichner that, while there has been some polarization of the race, we still have a substantial lead over Congressman Zschau.”

The Teichner poll showed Cranston ahead by 12 points, 49% to 37%, with 11% undecided and 3% for minor party candidates. This was interpreted as evidence that Zschau’s attacks and his spending on television, twice Cranston’s $1 million in September, were ineffective. A month earlier, Teichner put Cranston ahead by 14 points.

Meanwhile Monday, Teichner released new results of its poll in the race for governor. Republican Gov. George Deukmejian was leading Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley by 6%--46% to 40%, with 12% undecided and the rest supporting minor party candidates.

The six-point spread was virtually identical to a Teichner survey of a month ago.