Dim Hopes for Contras, Say Region Leaders

The articulate young president of Costa Rica, Oscar Arias, during a recent interview in his country, spelled out the problem the Sandinista regime in Nicaragua presents for Central Americans.

“They betrayed everyone--the whole world and the Nicaraguan people,” he said. “They promised a new Nicaragua, not a second Cuba.”

But a second Cuba, a totalitarian regime closely allied with the Soviet Union, is what many leaders in Central America fear they will deliver.

In Washington I spoke with senior Administration officials about the contras’ prospects and heard many optimistic forecasts.

Yet during a recent visit to Central America--Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua--officials and leaders offered far bleaker appraisals of the contras’ chances. The presidents of the region’s four democracies, in a series of exclusive interviews, were unusually frank in expressing dismay over the situation.

The Sandinistas have built up a strong army, of about 62,000 men and women, with at least 57,000 more in the militia and active reserves. The Soviet Union and Cuba have provided advisers and weapons, including Mi24 Hind helicopter gunships that have proved so effective in Afghanistan against the moujahedeen.

For these and other reasons, Arias said, “I don’t think the contras have a chance to win. If the purpose is to overthrow the Sandinista government, it is unlikely to happen. The contras don’t have a charismatic leader, the Sandinistas are very powerful and they’ll get more help from the Soviets.”

President Jose Napoleon Duarte of El Salvador, a man who speaks from some experience, told me: “You cannot impose (a liberation movement) from the outside, unless you invade. To get the people of any country to liberate itself, it must come from the inside. If ( contra leaders Arturo) Cruz and (Alfonso) Robelo convert themselves into leaders of their people, not just leaders of a military instrument, then the Sandinistas will have trouble.”

Duarte said he advises the Nicaraguan rebel leaders that they “must win the hearts of the people inside and not depend much on what’s coming from outside. The Sandinistas were in Managua. They were inside. They went up in the hills.”

But Duarte’s perspective seems to reveal the gap between the dangerous but feasible game of fighting old-style Central American dictatorships, which he played so well, and fighting a Soviet-supported state like Nicaragua, where it’s difficult to go to the hills--because the helicopters follow.

Enrique Ballanos, probably the leading opposition leader inside Nicaragua, calls for international support for the contras. Much of Europe, especially Scandinavia, is giving money to the Sandinistas, rather than boycotting their regime. With only the United States behind them, Ballanos isn’t optimistic. “The contras cannot win by themselves,” he said. “It’s too little too late. They need diplomatic and political support around the world. The Central Americans see no will in the United States. We’ve experienced the Bay of Pigs. You’ve left people stranded. You pull the rug out from under your friends.”

U.S. allies in Central America are haunted by worries that the United States will let them down--”It’s the ghost running around Central America,” said Costa Rica’s foreign minister, Rodrigo Madrigal Nieto.

A leading Honduran politician said that Central Americans have two options: either to hope for a U.S. invasion--”and frankly we only think such an invasion could come under Reagan”--or to look for political neutrality--”because you’re not a reliable ally.” Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala are trying to be neutral, he said. “We must decide which way to go. In public as well as in private life, you must know who you’re going to bed with. And we don’t know.”

Costa Rica, the oldest and strongest democracy in Central America, is following an official line of neutrality. Although the country allowed the Sandinistas to use it as a base when they were fighting dictator Anastasio Somoza, it will not do so for the contras. The Sandinista army is too imposing, and Costa Rica doesn’t have an army.

Arias, having angered U.S. officials by making some ambivalent remarks about the contra program, was vigorous when he spoke with me in his office in denouncing the Sandinistas: “Every day the whole world is seeing how the Sandinistas are identifying more and more with the Soviet Bloc. Look at (Nicaraguan President) Daniel Ortega with (Moammar) Kadafi and Fidel Castro (at the recent Nonaligned Conference in Harare, Zimbabwe) . . . . If there was any hope that Nicaragua could become nonaligned, not totally identified or committed with the Marxist world, there is no doubt now.”

Ortega is, according to Arias, becoming “more fanatic, more radical every day. He is radicalizing himself and his government every day.” At a recent meeting of the five Central American presidents in Guatemala, Arias said he told Ortega that he was different from the other four presidents because they are willing to hold elections while he is not. “There are only two systems of government,” Arias said he told Ortega, “dictatorship and democracy.” What Ortega calls democracy is not democracy, said Arias. “It’s totalitarian government.”

As for the possibility of a political settlement for the region, namely the Contadora process, Arias blamed its failure on one person: “Who killed Contadora? Ortega’s inflexibility, his intransigence.”

Arias sees a clear and present danger from the Sandinistas. “They will try to subvert Costa Rican democracy,” he said. According to a ranking Costa Rican intelligence official, terrorist acts are directed and set up against Costa Rica from Managua. This official asserted that some Costa Ricans have been given military training in Managua and Libya and have been sent back to Costa Rica to form cells and await orders.

Arias’ difficulties are shared by President Vincio Cerezo of Guatemala. He is pursuing a policy he labels “active neutrality,” which he says doesn’t mean ideological neutrality. “We are in favor of democracy and pluralism,” he said. “If we have to decide and choose, we’re going to decide in favor of democracy.”

Like Arias, Cerezo wants to contain the conflict, if possible, within Nicaragua. But Cerezo has an advantage: Guatemala is farther away, with El Salvador and Honduras serving as buffer states.

Guatemala’s strategy of neutrality seems prompted more by fear of insurgents that plague the country from bases inside Mexico than by the love of Managua. Cerezo’s rival in the last election, Jorge Carpio, explains that neutralism keeps Guatemala from being subverted--at least in the short run. Guerrilla activity would be stepped up, Carpio said, if Cerezo spoke out strongly against the Sandinista regime.

On the other hand, Jorge Serrano, a conservative who also was a candidate in the last election, said that neutralism will result in Sandanista control of Central America. He said that Guatemala should support Reagan’s policy, “because sooner or later we’re going to have the problem within our borders. Now they are not in an expansionist mood because they have to defend themselves, but what is going to happen 10 years from now?”

President Jose Azcona Hoyo of Honduras agreed with Arias that there is no hope for a political solution in the region. The Sandinistas are willing to remain in power at any cost, he said: “By force there has to be opposition and this opposition has the right to raise arms.”

Like Costa Rica, Honduras is in danger of subversion. A senior military officer told me that groups of Hondurans are trained in Cuba, Libya and Nicaragua and then are sent back to sow disorder. Presumably that will continue as long as the Sandanistas are in power.

Arias said, “The only way to throw the Sandinistas out is with U.S. forces.” Edward Ulibarri, a well-known Costa Rican journalist, stated that most Central American leaders would welcome a U.S. invasion of Nicaragua.

A high-ranking Salvadoran army officer suggested a joint U.S.-Central American invasion of Nicaragua. “I think there should be military action not only by the U.S. but also by the democratic countries in this area,” he said. “It’s the only road left.”

This idea was endorsed by a senior U.S. official in the area. The contras, he said, are giving the United States time to consolidate public opinion in favor of an invasion. “We can win with an invasion,” he said, “but we must bring the rest of the world along and not sever our relations with Mexico and the Western Hemisphere.”

Azcucena Ferrey, a member of one of Nicaragua’s opposition political parties, summed up the despair felt by many Central Americans with regard to the United States: “We saw the Berlin Wall go up, and the U.S. said it wouldn’t be permitted. Then came Cuba, and they said it wouldn’t happen. Then the U.S. said it wouldn’t permit a second Cuba here. But here we are, seven years into a Marxist-Leninist regime, and I ask myself, ‘What is the U.S. going to do? Is it going to propose another $100 million every three to four months?’

“They say the contras are only a pressure group,” she said. “This is an assurance of no invasion. Then they’ll negotiate behind our backs with the Russians . . . . How do you want us to push for change when the U.S. Administration isn’t going to push?”