Counties, Concerned Over Amnesty Issue, Study Added Costs : Southern California Weighs Impact of Alien Bill

Nowhere is the potential impact of the immigration revision bill adopted Friday greater than in Southern California--home, by some estimates, to nearly one-third of the illegal aliens in the country.

As the measure made its final passage through Congress this week on its way to the White House, government officials from Sacramento to the Mexican border were laboring to gauge its costs and benefits.

Their work is complicated by the absence of authoritative estimates of how many illegal aliens living in the state will win amnesty--legal status--under the bill.

The U.S. Census Bureau counted 658,000 illegal aliens in Los Angeles County alone in 1980. That’s 32% of the nationwide total of 2,057,000, which the bureau estimates is probably undercounted by 500,000 to 1.5 million.

Officials in Orange County said they had no idea how many illegal aliens actually are within their borders. They continue to make plans using the figure of 80,000, a guess made during a 1983 study.

The reform bill offers legal residency to illegal aliens who can prove they have been in the country since before Jan. 1, 1982. Those deemed likely to become a “public charge” may be disqualified. Estimates vary on how many people will meet these requirements.

To begin with, it is difficult to determine how many residents are in the United States illegally because few aliens will volunteer such a fact. Moreover, the same fears may make many reluctant to apply to the Immigration and Naturalization Service for legal status, even if they are eligible.

More Offices Planned

The INS is preparing to open 28 legalization offices in its western region, including 13 serving what agency officials estimate may be as many as 1 million illegal immigrants qualifying for amnesty in Los Angeles County.

But Antonio Rodriguez, director of the Los Angeles Center for Law and Justice, predicted that no more than 100,000 people will win amnesty in Los Angeles County.

Los Angeles County officials estimate that 800,000 residents may win amnesty and project $190 million in annual county costs for services to newly legal aliens.

Orange County officials were briefed Friday on the bill, but they said that while they expect it to increase costs for the general relief and indigent medical services program, they don’t know by how much.

Referring to those who will qualify for legal residence, James McConnell, Orange County’s lobbyist in Washington, said, “Presumably, people here that long are already in the work force . . . and therefore they’ll be less likely to collect (unemployment) benefits.”

McConnell told Orange County supervisors, aides and heads of county departments at his briefing in the Hall of Administration in Santa Ana that the bill would provide $1 billion a year for four years to cover state and local governments’ increased welfare and education costs caused by legalization.

But, he said, debate in the House indicated $250 million annually could go for substitutes for the Social Security Insurance and Medicaid programs alone, since the bill bars the newly legalized aliens from receiving most federally funded welfare benefits for five years.

“If this $1 billion proves to be not a sufficient amount, we (can) go to the appropriations committee and dun them for more,” McConnell said.

Thomas Uram, director of the Orange County Health Care Agency, said he could not estimate the increased costs for medical care.

“The problem is: How do you claim (legalized status) and how do you document it?” Uram said. “I suspect once health care is authorized for those persons, they will avail themselves of the services more frequently.”

The other area of major impact is expected to be the general relief program.

A 1983 study for Orange County by Washington, D.C., consultant David S. North said that nearly 5,500 undocumented aliens sought cash assistance from the county but were turned away in the 12 months starting September, 1981.

More Applicants Expected

The study said the actual number of applicants in a year would undoubtedly be higher because previously ineligible people who did not bother to apply will ask for assistance after the bill passes.

The additional cost to the county for the general relief program was estimated at $1.1 million the first year it took effect, $3.2 million in the second year, and $4.1 million in the third.

The study’s cost estimates were prepared before the county’s increase last year in the maximum monthly payment to individuals in the program from $240 to $289 per month.

The county is currently spending nearly $3 million a year for the general relief program, providing benefits to about 2,100 people per month who are not eligible for assistance from other government programs.

San Diego County officials said the measure is likely to lead to increased health and welfare costs there but that no specific projections were available.

Shift in Expenditures

A Los Angeles County study conducted last year showed that illegal immigrants in the county pay about $2.8 billion in taxes a year--far more than they get back in such public services as police or welfare--but that most of the tax money goes to Washington. About 60% goes to the federal government, 32% to the state and only about $110 million a year comes back to Los Angeles County, according to the study.

One complication in projecting net costs to county governments, however, is that counties are already spending money on health services for illegals and much of that expenditure will shift to the state and federal governments.

That’s because aliens who gain legal status will become eligible for federal- and state-funded health care programs such as Medi-Cal and Supplemental Security Income payments for the aged, blind and disabled.

At the same time, aliens who gain legal status under the bill will be ineligible for five years for most federally funded welfare benefits, including Aid to Families With Dependent Children. What worries county officials is that the newly legal residents may seek general relief welfare, which is funded entirely by counties.

Public school, community college and city officials say the new law will have little impact on their budgets because they serve people irrespective of legal status.

State officials have done little analysis of the bill’s potential effects. “There is no way to project any impact at this time,” said Kathleen Norris, a spokeswoman for the state Department of Social Services.

David Gordon, deputy superintendent for governmental affairs in the state Department of Education, said that “it could be that California will get $300 million to $400 million a year (in federal reimbursement funds) of which education would get not less than 10%.”

Sees Long-Term Benefit

“We are absorbing the costs anyway,” said Bill Honig, state superintendent of public instruction. “We were feeling the pinch, and this seems to correct it a little bit . . . . Basically, it’s positive from education’s standpoint.”

There could be some new costs if people who previously were afraid to attend community colleges now start attending classes, “but that’s also an investment,” Honig added.

“It may cost you short-term, but you end up benefiting,” he said. “Those are the costs we like to absorb.”

Meanwhile, the INS is moving ahead with plans to open legalization offices. The facilities, each staffed by about 20 employees and capable of processing 150 applications a day, are scheduled to open in six months.

Otherwise, INS officials were reluctant to discuss the potential impact of the bill, at least until it is signed into law by President Reagan.

“You can’t formulate a policy until you have a bill,” said John Belluardo, a spokesman for the western regional office of the INS.

Alan Eliason, chief patrol agent for the Border Patrol in the San Diego sector, said that “in practical terms, it’s simply too early for me to sit here and say exactly what we are going to do.”

“Nothing is going to stop illegal entry overnight,” he added.

Staff writer Patrick McDonnell in San Diego contributed to this story.