Move to Replace Pinochet Grows : Moderates Approach Armed Forces Leaders

Members of moderate opposition groups are meeting quietly with armed forces commanders in search of a negotiated agreement that would replace Gen. Augusto Pinochet with a civilian president in 1989.

Chilean political sources describe the behind-the-scenes conversations as a major opening but caution that they are still informal, unstructured and tentative, both in nature and content.

Pinochet, aware of the conversations, is trying to short-circuit them while at the same time tightening his grip on the army.

Officers commanding the navy, the air force and the national police have all gone on record this month in favor of dialogue between the government and its democratic opponents. For the first time, it is publicly clear that the long-term goals of the three members of Chile’s military junta do not coincide with those of Pinochet.

The 70-year-old strongman, his power guaranteed since 1973 by Latin America’s most professional armed forces, seeks a second eight-year presidential term that would extend his rule until 1997.

Even as opposition parties debate how to respond as institutions to the top commanders’ opening, political sources say that businessmen and second-line political leaders are talking with the military men to emphasize their call for a return to civilian leadership.

If the meetings are not secret, neither are they being advertised. Jose Toribio Merino of the navy, Fernando Matthei of the air force and Rodolfo Stange of the national police are simply finding room in their appointment books for visitors with political concerns.

“Essentially, they are talking about how to talk,” one of Pinochet’s prominent centrist foes said. “The process will be long and complicated, but at last there is some glimmer of light.”

Three Comprise the Junta

The disputed 1980 constitution authorizes the junta, which has legislative powers, to name a single presidential candidate for ratification at a yes-or-no plebiscite in 1989. Merino, Matthei, Stange and the army’s vice commander comprise the junta.

When mass protests against Pinochet began in 1983, opponents from conservative right to Marxist left demanded his immediate departure. Despite a steady stream of protest killings and the growth of Marxist terrorism over the last two years, Pinochet has easily weathered the storm, resolutely prosecuting his “war against international communism.”

Recognizing in frustration that there seems little chance of driving Pinochet out before his term expires, his democratic opponents are now pressuring the commanders to seek constitutional reform that would allow free elections in 1989.

The recent shift of opposition emphasis was a victory for Pinochet, just as a quick succession of improbable events in recent months appeared to have strengthened him further.

Falling Out With Communists

First came the rupture of an alliance between democratic parties and Chile’s Communists, who historically have accounted for around 15% of the electorate and are Pinochet’s most implacable enemies. The Communists had been accepted by the opposition as fellow protesters for a restored democracy in Chile, but incautious statements by Communist Party leaders undercut credibility in the party’s peaceful intentions and its democratic goals.

Then came the discovery of huge caches of smuggled American weapons from the Vietnam era that were apparently intended for the Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front, a two-year-old guerrilla movement that is identified as the armed wing of the Moscow-obedient Communist Party.

U.S. government experts who examined the 70 tons of arms, the largest guerrilla cache ever discovered in Latin America, concluded in a 141-page report that there was little doubt that the weapons had come from Cuba.

“The size and quality of the arms suggest that Communist forces were preparing for prolonged fighting,” the report said.

Guerrilla Ambush

Finally, on Sept. 7, came a guerrilla ambush of Pinochet’s motorcade as it returned to Santiago from his country residence. Pinochet narrowly escaped this first presidential assassination attempt in Chilean history, but five of his outriders were killed. The attackers, estimated to number 25 to 40, escaped. The Rodriguez Front has since boasted of having organized the ambush and has promised more violence.

Within hours of the attack, Pinochet imposed a state of siege. He censored the press, rounded up political opponents and banned public assemblies--except for a seven-hour parade in his honor two days later that was intended to support his presidential candidacy.

With summer approaching here in the Southern Hemisphere, the political year should have climaxed there, but within a few weeks Merino, Matthei and Stange were publicly espousing dialogue--”without pre-conditions,” Matthei said.

What prompted the commanders’ declarations is not clear, but there is some informed speculation.

Came to Different Conclusions

“After the attack, Pinochet’s reaction was ‘war,’ ” a senior leader of the center-left Christian Democratic Party said. “The commanders, by contrast, seem to have concluded in the aftermath that only by replacing Pinochet when his term ends can they spare Chile a worsening cycle of violence and greater international isolation.”

Despite a recovering free market economy that is well-managed by Latin America’s most honest public administration, Chile has few friends abroad. The United States is outspokenly hostile to Pinochet. A steady stream of messages from Washington urges transition to democracy.

Chilean businessmen, many of whom have gone over to the opposition, are alarmed at the U.S. threat to vote against a $250-million World Bank loan to Chile next month if there is no improvement in the human rights situation.

Blessing in Disguise

Hard-liners within the government and moderates outside it say a “no” vote by the Reagan Administration could prove to be a blessing in disguise for Pinochet: He would profit from any surge of anti-U.S. nationalism it provoked.

Pinochet has no more time for human rights appeals from abroad than he has for moderate Chilean politicians, who, he says, “now portray themselves as white pigeons when until recently they ate carrion from the same plate with the Communists.”

Chile’s 57,000-man army, the dominant Chilean service, is the bulwark of Pinochet’s rule, and he is moving systematically to strengthen his control of it. He has scheduled nine key generals for retirement at the end of the year, including some prominent doves and independents. The army vice commander and junta representative, Julio Canessa, is among those scheduled to go, to be replaced by Humberto Gordon, who for six years was head of Chile’s secret police. Pinochet himself will retain the posts of army commander and commander in chief he has held since 1973.

Bid to Regain Initiative

In a bid to regain the political initiative, Pinochet’s interior minister has opened discussions with small right-wing groups that accept the disputed constitution and are willing to limit discussions to long-promised laws covering electoral registration and reorganization of political parties.

The major opposition forces, divided as usual, have rejected talks on those terms, preferring instead to see if a substantive dialogue can be established with the three commanders.

As Chile’s search for democratic change shifts from street confrontation toward dialogue, Pinochet’s opponents expect him to focus on winning over the navy, air force and police to his effort to carry on for another term. They believe that over the next six to eight months he will attempt to replace the three commanders who have been willing to talk with the opposition.