Lack of National Issue Colors House Campaigns : Neither Party Expects Emphasis on Local Concerns to Result in Major Upsets

National partisan tides carried North Carolina Republican Bill Hendon to Congress in 1980, swept him out of office two years later and carried him back in 1984. But this year, as he faces Democrat Jamie Clarke for a third time, the country’s political waters are unusually still.

Hendon is featuring top Administration officials in his advertising, as he did in 1984. But instead of aligning himself with President Reagan’s team directly, he shows how he has brought such figures as Vice President George Bush and Energy Secretary Donald P. Hodel to his district to persuade the Administration not to locate a nuclear waste dump there.

Without Reagan at the top of the ticket, as he was in 1980 and 1984, or nationwide economic turmoil as severe as the 1982 recession that cost Republicans 26 seats, candidates in hundreds of House districts across the country are focusing on local problems and individual records.

Historical Pattern

And, lacking a national theme, unknown opponents are finding it more difficult to make a case for unseating entrenched incumbents. As a result, neither party is predicting major upsets, despite a historical pattern of heavy losses for any President’s party in the sixth year of his Administration.

This year, political analysts have predicted, Republicans could lose as many as 20 seats in the House, but this still would be far short of the 53-seat average suffered by the party in power in the last four elections that occurred midway through a President’s second term. Nevertheless, it would leave Republicans even more outnumbered in the chamber, where they trail the Democratic majority by 253 to 180.

Not Many Seats to Lose

The Republicans may be able to keep their losses relatively low because, in part, they do not have that many seats to lose. Reagan’s huge reelection victory in 1984 carried only 14 GOP House members in with him, 10 of them in North Carolina and Texas.

Low Turnout Expected

A factor that could generate surprising results is the relatively low turnout expected for House races, particularly in areas where no hotly contested senatorial or gubernatorial race is at the top of the ticket.

“This is getting very close to being an election that nobody is going to come to,” GOP strategist Eddie Mahe said. “Nobody is going to vote this year. Everybody is going to stay home.”

What this means is that high participation by small factions could swing some marginal races. And the voters’ apathy persists in spite of the fact that their regions are suffering serious problems.

The Midwest, for example, is still struggling under the farm depression. In states such as North Carolina, thousands of jobs have been lost to overseas competition. And oil-producing states have been devastated by falling energy prices.

In those areas, Democrats are still betting they can turn Reagan’s economic program into a weapon against Republicans.

“In the last three weeks, all the polls have shown the economy has really taken over,” said Rep. Tony Coelho (D-Merced), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “It’s starting to show in a lot of statewide polls. It’s starting to happen.”

Both parties will be spending heavily in the final days of the campaigns. Joseph R. Gaylord, executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said: “You’re going to be hearing a lot from our side,” particularly stressing military strength and suggestions that Democrats may press for a tax increase next year.

Democrats, meanwhile, will continue pushing their economic messages, centering on the trade deficit and the agricultural crisis.

While voters may be uneasy about the economy, it still is not clear whether their fears will make a difference in congressional races.

North Carolina, for example, is cited as one of the best Democratic prospects because of the thousands of jobs its textile industry has lost to foreign competition. Only two years after Reagan carried the state by a wide margin and brought four Republican congressmen in with him, he is being blamed for its economic problems. In particular, workers are saying he should abandon his free-market philosophy when it comes to international trade.

“If we don’t get some kind of import-export control, we’re going to lose jobs,” said Charlie McDowell, president of the local paper worker’s union in Haywood County. “We’re beginning to feel the pinch. The company is claiming the profit margins are down. If we wait too long, it will be like textiles. We’ll have lost thousands of jobs before they try to do anything about it.”

But this anger at the White House, political strategists say, may not be enough to elect Democrats to Congress.

“A lot of people thought, coming into ‘86, that this was going to be a send-them-a-message referendum on textiles. I don’t think that’s developed,” said Mark Longabaugh, campaign manager for former Rep. Robin Britt.

Britt, trying to regain his congressional seat from Rep. Howard Coble (R-N.C.) in a district that includes many textile workers, is talking about international trade, but he also is holding up his own congressional record against Coble’s.

In assessing the election, “it’s easy to come up with (political) shorthand, like textiles or jobs, but really it’s the individual character of the candidates,” said Christopher Scott, president of the North Carolina AFL-CIO. And that means individual races are being run on issues much narrower than regional trends.

The race between Hendon and Clarke, for example, may hinge on the nuclear waste issue: Hendon claims he has permanently blocked the dump; Clarke says it is merely delayed.

“We’ve just been beaten to death by national trends,” Clarke supporter Rick Webb complained recently. “This year, people are looking for someone who will basically address their needs. . . . Hendon’s not taking care of business at home.”

In rural Michigan, where former Democratic Rep. Don Albosta is struggling to regain the seat that Republican Bill Schuette won from him in 1984, devastating floods have diverted voter attention from broader agricultural problems.

Texas Oil Crisis

And in Texas, where both parties expected the oil crisis to be the dominating factor, incumbent Republican Mac Sweeney has struggled to shake allegations that he had abused his congressional free-mailing privilege and forced his House staff to perform political work while on the government payroll.

Saw Assault Coming

One reason GOP losses are expected to be held to a minimum is that Republican incumbents saw the assault coming and have managed to distance themselves from certain Reagan policies.

North Carolina Republicans lined up behind a bill, ultimately vetoed by Reagan, that would have limited textile imports. Farm-state Republicans have been among the President’s vocal critics on agricultural policy, but they may be helped by the Administration’s announcement Friday that it is increasing the program to pay corn and feed grain farmers to keep land out of production.

Freshman Rep. Joe L. Barton, like most of his fellow Texas Republicans, has opposed Reagan by advocating an oil-import fee as a means of shoring up domestic energy prices. “I’m on the right side of issues that count in my district,” Barton said.

Races for Open Seats

Where the Democrats’ economic themes may be taking hold is in the races for the 42 open seats, in which incumbents have chosen not to run for reelection or, in three cases, have been defeated for their party’s nomination.

In rural Iowa, for example, the former Democratic state chairman, Dave Nagle, stands a good chance of beating former state Rep. John McIntee to become the first Democrat to represent the Waterloo area since the 1930s.

“If they elect a Democrat, I think that will be justly seen as dissatisfaction with (Reagan Administration farm) policies,” Nagle campaign spokesman Otto Mayr said. “Part of it is elect a Democrat to send a message to Washington that Iowans are not happy.”