Problems Seen if Latino Education Isn’t Pushed : Carnegie Study Says Minority Will Be a Growing Portion of Workers That Supports Older Whites

Unless more emphasis is placed on educating young Latinos, California and other states may face serious problems as the nation’s fastest growing minority group becomes a more dominant part of the work force that supports a largely white elderly population, a new report warned Wednesday.

“As the number of older persons increase and they become a stronger social and political force in this country, profound issues arise that may lead to problems, tensions and opportunities for the Hispanic population,” the report said.

The study, prepared by the aging-society project of the Carnegie Corp. of New York, noted that the Latino population is growing three times faster than the overall national population. It also showed that proportionately more Latino families are having children than non-Latino families.

According to the Census Bureau, the estimated 17.3 million legal Latinos will grow to 51 million by 2050, and, because of their relative youth, will be an increasingly larger part of the taxpaying work force.

Public Support Demands

“It is in the best interest of the middle-aged and aged populations to invest resources in educating a youthful minority population,” the report said, noting the public support demands that will be placed on it.

The study was hailed by one California congressman as “landmark” research.

“If we don’t invest in the Hispanic population today, we will pay the consequences tomorrow,” Rep. Edward R. Roybal (D-Los Angeles) said.

Particularly alarming, the researchers said, are the high poverty rate and low educational levels that plague Latinos.

“Hispanics are twice as likely to be poor as the general population,” the study said, noting that, although Latinos constituted only 6.4% of the population in 1984, they made up 12.8% of those below the poverty level. Latino youths also have a much higher dropout rate than the population as a whole.

‘Potential Danger’

“We must be aware of the potential danger of continuing to allow” these trends, said Rep. Esteban E. Torres (D-La Puente).

In one “worst case” scenario, the report envisioned a time when a social revolt might erupt in heavily Latino states as the younger Latino work force, largely holding low-paying jobs, is asked to pay for increased support programs for the elderly. Within 50 years, those over 65 are expected to account for 20% of the population, compared to 12% now.

Moreover, “Because age and ethnicity will correlate, things will be labeled by ethnicity,” David Hayes-Bautista, a University of California professor, wrote in one chapter of the report.

“Pediatric health will be labeled as a Mexican problem. The elderly will be seen as an Anglo problem,” he said. “That could be a pretty depressing situation.”

Importance in California

Devising more effective educational and job training programs for Latinos is particularly important for states like California, where 40% of the population is projected to be Latino by the year 2030, the report said.

When the baby-boom population begins to turn 65, the working age population in California will become largely minority--mostly Latino, the report said.

Fernando Torres-Gil, who edited the report, said the time has come to alert people to the potential problems.

“We don’t want to be alarmist,” he said. “On the other hand, we don’t want to see these problems swept under the rug.”