AFL-CIO Plans Pre-Primary Endorsement

Undaunted by scoffers, AFL-CIO leaders have sensibly decided to try to take the lead in endorsing a Democratic candidate for president in 1988. For the second time in its history, the labor federation plans to endorse a Democratic hopeful before any state holds a primary or caucus.

There is no doubt that this is the way labor can best exert its influence on the direction of the disoriented Democratic Party. Just by itself, the formal agreement that the AFL-CIO’s 35-member executive council will complete next month to push for an early endorsement will keep individual unions from lining up behind rival candidates and diluting labor’s political strength.

And there is no doubt about what direction federation leaders justifiably want for the Democratic Party. They want to move away from the “more-guns-and-less butter” philosophy of the Reagan Administration and of several Reagan look-alikes in the Democratic Party. They also want a more compassionate government that will use its awesome power to fulfill the nation’s basic defense needs while dealing with fiscal and monetary problems and still meeting the tremendous needs of the unemployed, minorities, the poor, the elderly and the sick.

There are so many potential candidates that an endorsement by the weakened but still politically-powerful labor federation in October, 1987, could provide substantial help when the primaries start early in 1988. The endorsement could bring one candidate out of the pack, help keep him there and keep the Democratic Party in its traditionally liberal direction.

The federation will make its pre-primary endorsement only if a candidate gets a two-thirds majority vote of delegates to the AFL-CIO convention that begins Oct. 26 in Miami.

Some of labor’s critics claimed the AFL-CIO endorsement of Walter Mondale was a key factor in his loss to President Reagan in 1984. Their argument was that labor’s endorsement amounts to a “kiss of death” for its candidate because unions are so unloved in America.

Few contest the fact, however, that labor’s endorsement was a crucial factor in Mondale’s successful bid for the Democratic Party nomination. And a candidate obviously first needs to win the nomination before heading into the general election.

Also, it is unlikely that the labor endorsement was really a political “kiss of death” for Mondale. Reagan’s skilled campaign managers thought so little of that argument that the President didn’t even mention it in his campaign.

Nearly 60% of union members voted for Mondale, and all of the serious 1984 Democratic candidates sought labor’s endorsement.

The same apparently will be true this year. Despite Mondale’s devastating loss, the serious candidates for 1988 have already indicated they want the federation’s blessing. Presumably, the candidates have at least a modicum of political acumen and wouldn’t vie for the endorsement if they felt it would hurt more than help.

Those seeking labor’s backing in the coming primaries are expected to include some Republicans, including former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig and Sen. Robert Packwood of Washington. The traditionally Democratic-oriented AFL-CIO may well recommend a GOP candidate for the primaries since up to 20% of the federation’s members are registered Republicans.

While a federation endorsement could help encourage the organization’s Republican members to choose the most progressive candidate among the GOP contenders, there is no chance it will endorse a Republican in the general election.

Obvious Dangers

There are some obvious dangers in a pre-primary endorsement. For example, labor’s candidate may drop out of the race, leaving unions with a loser even before the real race begins.

Because so many Democrats are expected to enter the race, the biggest obstacle to an early endorsement is the difficulty any candidate would have getting the needed two-thirds majority at the AFL-CIO convention.

Yet that problem may be overcome. A glance at those currently mentioned as candidates shows that most will be almost automatically excluded from consideration by the union leaders.

Some examples: Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia has only a 38% “right” voting record, according to the AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education. Nunn, like former Virginia Gov. Charles S. Robb, Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, South Carolina Sen. Ernest Hollings and a few other potential candidates, is much too conservative to get labor’s pre-primary endorsement unless all the more liberal candidates drop out.

Colorado’s Sen. Gary Hart could get consideration, but an endorsement of him or some other middle-of-the-roader would not help labor give the Democratic Party the push toward the compassionate philosophy of government it so urgently needs to clearly distinguish it from the Republicans.

The only serious potential candidates so far who could do this are New York’s Gov. Mario Cuomo, Delaware’s Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis.

The federation is almost surely not going to endorse all three because that would weaken the endorsement’s value. Dukakis and Biden would have to mount major campaigns quickly to make themselves well enough known nationally to get the federation endorsement nine months from now. That isn’t likely.

Cuomo Strongest

Thus, as of now, the potential candidate most likely to get the AFL-CIO’s official support is the relatively well-known Cuomo. His progressive philosophy on domestic issues is generally in line with that of the labor movement, and he voices it eloquently.

Cuomo could fall by the wayside before October, however, if his preliminary efforts fail to give him a meaningful ranking in public opinion polls or if he fails to get the two-thirds majority at the labor convention.

The pre-primary endorsement process will begin soon when AFL-CIO leaders start informal interviews with presidential hopefuls.

Videotapes of the candidates answering labor-oriented questions may be distributed to AFL-CIO affiliated unions across the country to help develop a consensus. Then individual unions, using more professional methods than they did in 1983, will poll their nearly 14 million members to see if a consensus is building behind any candidate. The polling results will be widely publicized by the federation.

If there is no agreement on a candidate by October, the federation might delay a decision until after some early 1988 primaries narrow the field.

But for the AFL-CIO to play a meaningful role in the 1988 election, its best opportunity probably lies with an October endorsement of Cuomo or some dark horse candidate much like him.

Air Controllers Vote

There are far too few air traffic controllers, and many are forced to work dangerously long hours. Air traffic is at an all-time high. Planes are frequently delayed. But at least there is general agreement that something must be done about the problems that began when President Reagan fired most of the nation’s controllers in 1981 after they violated the law by going on strike.

The Administration also destroyed the controllers’ union, the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Assn., which made a strategic error in calling the strike to protest job conditions that are, if anything, worse today than they were before the strike.

Several futile efforts have been made to form a new controllers’ union. Unless the Reagan Administration wages an all-out war against it, there is a good chance that the National Air Traffic Controllers Assn. soon will represent the controllers.

On Monday, NATCA filed a union representation election petition and said that 5,800, or almost half of the nation’s controllers, have signed it. If the union wins, it says it will not call another strike.

Even without the strike weapon, controllers speaking with one voice through a union might help improve the air traffic mess. Reagan is asking for substantial funds to modernize the system. In the meantime, a major improvement could be made quickly if Reagan relents and allows the re-hiring of enough of the fired controllers to provide an adequately staffed, well-trained work force.