War-Torn Lebanon Adds Fear of Hunger to Woes

For the first time in 11 years this war-ravaged nation is haunted by the specter of widespread hunger as the Lebanese economy continues in a tailspin that the government seems unable to halt.

Rampant inflation, frighteningly low foreign-currency reserves and the collapse of the Lebanese pound have many here worrying that the central government could go bust in just two months, according to Finance Minister Camille Chamoun during an interview last week in his heavily guarded East Beirut home.

“I foresee a period of two more months (of solvency). After that we will no longer be able to fund the Lebanese army, and people will be hungry,” said Chamoun, 86, a former president and one of Lebanon’s most influential politicians. “Only God knows what will happen then.”

The economy remained strong for the first 10 years of the war. But 1986 brought a rude awakening. Year-end inflation peaked at more than 300%, and the Lebanese pound, valued at about 6 cents to the dollar, is now worth a penny, and is still falling. Since 1982, average personal income has dropped 60%, and the nation’s dwindling foreign reserves stand at about $500 million, Chamoun said--just enough to meet government expenses through February.

Bernard Fattal, owner of an import company, Fattal Corp., and the country’s most influential businessman, sees no end to the economic chaos. “Confidence in the government has been lost in the last two years. Before, there was at least hope, but now nobody believes the war will stop.

“Even through 1984, everybody was throwing money here--Iranians, Iraqis, Saudi Arabs, Palestinians, everybody. There was no government, and so no taxes. Lebanon became a very large duty-free port,” he said.

Imports and exports became the trade of a nouveau riche “war class” that made book on the lack of a central authority while the war raged on.

But the strong dollar has put an end to Lebanon’s ability to import goods from abroad, especially from Europe and the United States, for cheap export to the Arab world. And the business community is learning too late that its profiteering from untaxed imports has left the Lebanese industrial base in shambles at a time when labor is cheap and the export market is ripe.

As one businessman put it: “It is an industrialist’s dream, but no one has the resources to set up an industry.” Instead, Lebanon must import 90% of all consumer goods and the majority of its food products.

Chamoun’s close brush with death on Wednesday after a car bomb exploded next to his motorcade, killing four people, testifies to the high stakes in Lebanese politics. Chamoun heads the Lebanese forces, the party and militia that unite the three major Christian factions and control the presidency.

But since the government fell apart the presidency has been rendered powerless--unable to direct the country’s economic future, much less its military present. Without a clearly identifiable central administrative authority that all factions would recognize, there is no conduit through which to channel desperately needed foreign aid and private capital.

Roger Deeb, secretary general for internal affairs of the Lebanese forces, said that the signs of a pending disaster already are apparent. “The Western countries, particularly the United States, say they want to help, but with no central administration there is no place for (economic) aid to be sent. So it is a Catch-22--they want to help, but who? They don’t want to be seen as helping one side against another.”

Many Lebanese believe that a meeting of the cabinet, which has not convened since early last year, would set the stage for renewed confidence in the economy. There is hope that the economic crisis will compel the warring sides to sit down out of self-interest.

In the meantime, residents of this city--calmed by the fact that for now the fighting is raging between Shia militiamen and Palestinians on southern soil instead of on urban streets--wonder if the time has come when lights will not come on again and water will no longer flow from taps.

“The pipes here are so old, and the electricity is always going out,” said one Lebanese housewife. “You think one day you’ll wake up and just nothing will work.”

“The country is becoming very weak, and in a very short time we might have half the population unable to buy food,” Chamoun said. If foreign aid is not forthcoming, what’s the use in planning?”

Lebanon finally can no longer wage war and maintain a strong economy, but what seems like the country’s demise may force the government to meet once again--if only for the sake of the Lebanese pound. Washington is in no position to help arrange that meeting, but it can use its influence to quietly encourage the United Nations to step into the breach and provide a forum for Lebanon’s factions to meet. It might take nothing more than that to bolster the economy enough to save this small nation from more suffering.