Israel Warned U.S. That Arms Deal Had Only 25% Chance of Success, Official Says

An Israeli envoy told American officials a year ago they had no more than a 25% chance of gaining freedom for U.S. hostages in Lebanon by selling arms to Iran, an official reported today.

Foreign Minister Shimon Peres made the revelation earlier in the day to a Parliament committee, a ministry official who demanded anonymity said.

According to the report, counterterrorism adviser Amiram Nir gave the assessment last January to the U.S. National Security Council in Washington.

“Because of what Nir said, it is therefore difficult to say that Israel was the moving spirit behind the American operation,” the official quoted Peres as telling the committee.

Peres and other Israeli leaders fear Israel may be made a scapegoat in the Iran arms affair. They expressed satisfaction today with reports of an acknowledgment by Robert C. McFarlane, a former national security adviser, that President Reagan approved Israeli shipments of U.S. arms to Iran that began in August, 1985.

A memo McFarlane prepared about the arms sales had said Reagan did not authorize shipments until January, 1986.

Israeli leaders have repeatedly denied that Israel shipped arms to Iran for five months without U.S. approval.

“I’m relieved,” Peres told reporters after briefing Parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee. He said Israel got involved in the deal only “as a loyal friend” to the United States, and he reiterated this in a message sent to Vice President George Bush on Monday night.

Abba Eban, chairman of the committee, said his panel agreed that assurances from the White House over the weekend and the reports about McFarlane “certainly released Israel from any kind of suspicion.”

He said the consensus of his committee was that “the main issue has been largely resolved: namely whether or not the U.S. had a legitimate grievance against Israel.”

U.S. tries to sooth Israel, Page 8.