Syria’s Many Problems Lessen War Threat, Israel Paper Says

Quoting what is believed to be an official Israeli government assessment, the Jerusalem Post on Thursday reported that Syria is so racked by economic, social and political problems that the probability of an Israeli-Syrian war in 1987 is “very low.”

The Post’s respected military affairs correspondent, Hirsh Goodman, quoted “a scholarly analysis” made available to him as predicting “growing and sometimes violent internal unrest” in Damascus “coupled with instability in the upper echelons of the political hierarchy.”

Goodman said in a telephone interview that he could not reveal the source of the study under the restrictions of Israeli military censorship. However, he did say that the study was prepared for Israeli policy-makers.

Syria is considered here to be Israel’s most dangerous potential Arab adversary. Its large and well-equipped standing army faces Israel’s along the strategic, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights northeast of the Sea of Galilee. All principal Israeli cities are within easy range of Syrian missiles, and Syria’s air force is equipped with modern Soviet-made fighters.

Syrian President Hafez Assad has set as his country’s primary goal the achievement of military parity with Israel and has made no secret of his determination to recapture the Golan Heights, which Israel first overran in the Six-Day War of 1967.

Offsetting Difficulties

According to the report quoted by Goodman, however, Syria’s military buildup since 1982 has, in a strategic sense, been at least partially offset by other difficulties.

“The experts have concluded that Syria will be very busy with its internal problems in 1987,” the Post correspondent wrote. “They consider it ‘highly improbable’ that Assad will risk conflict with Israel during 1987, and reject the frequently voiced notion that Assad could risk a war in order to deflect attention from his internal problems and force the Arabs to line up behind him.

“Current geopolitical and strategic realities in the Arab world make significant Arab participation in a war with Israel highly improbable,” Goodman added. “At the same time, Israel’s continued clear-cut military superiority has enhanced Israel’s deterrent posture, minimalizing the risk of war.”

1986 a Very Bad Year

Goodman and other Israeli sources listed a series of setbacks that, as one government official put it, made 1986 “one of the worst years for Assad” since he took power in 1971.

Syria’s economy has deteriorated sharply, with crippling shortages of electricity and raw materials necessary to fuel its industry. The inflation rate is over 100%, and according to the study quoted by the Jerusalem Post, foreign currency reserves average about $100 million--”a low figure that would cause concern to a large corporation, let alone a country of some 10 million people.”

The study also reports that budgetary problems have forced Syria to implement “major cuts” in defense spending. And, according to the Post, the report says “some weapons systems known to have been in the pipeline to the Syrian armed forces seem to have been delayed or canceled.” As an example, it cited Soviet MIG-29 aircraft that Iraq has recently put into service but that Syria--long the first of Moscow’s Mideast allies to get such advanced weapons--has not.

Internal Resistance

Politically, the regime is said to face growing resistance from Islamic fundamentalists opposed to Assad’s ruling Baath Arab Socialist Party and from Iraqi-sponsored guerrillas.

According to the study cited by the Jerusalem Post, “Assad’s health continues to be a problem.” People who have seen Assad recently have reported that he is pasty-faced and veined and that he no longer works 14 hours a day.”

Speculation about Assad’s failing health have fueled “intrigues” that the Post article said “are becoming more blatant as his potential successors jockey for position.”