Aquino Heads for Major Victory : Projections Show a 75% Margin for Her Constitution

President Corazon Aquino was headed for a landslide political victory today in a constitutional referendum that she had billed as a test of her popularity and a step toward stability for the Philippines.

According to computer projections by the two most extensive and sophisticated private poll-watching groups, with 50% of the precincts tallied as of midday today, the constitution was expected to pass with between 75% and 80% of the vote.

Election Commission officials announced that voter turnout was a record 90% of the 25 million registered Filipino voters. By law, the commission said, it will not announce the final official tallies until the end of the week. However, the private poll-watchers’ results are considered authoritative.

Clean Election

Despite Aquino’s resounding victory, an independent survey of the vote indicated that her increasingly alienated armed forces rejected the charter in large numbers.

The balloting was widely believed to be one of the cleanest and most peaceful elections in Philippine history. The vote was marred by only a handful of isolated incidents of harassment and intimidation. In the past, an average of 50 people were killed on Election Day.

The armed forces, which had been on alert throughout the country as a result of threats from Communist rebels and a handful of troops refusing to give up after a failed military uprising, reported only a few scattered incidents in Monday’s voting.

One involved a fanatic anti-Communist religious group called “Chop-Chop,” which halted the voting in a rebel-dominated town in the south.

The military reported Monday night that it was engaged in a gun battle with a band of 300 Communist rebels that allegedly attacked a schoolhouse voting place on the southern island of Mindanao. At least three rebels were killed and two soldiers wounded, authorities said.

The only other problem reported was a 24-hour delay in the voting on the tiny southern island of Tawi-Tawi. The Philippine navy boat carrying the ballots to the island broke down.

Clearly, the rebels had decided not to undertake an important Election Day offensive, as the military had feared.

Teodoro Benigno, the president’s press secretary, said that state-sponsored killing, ballot-stealing, vote-buying and terrorism were routine practices in elections held under deposed President Ferdinand E. Marcos.

“This time,” Benigno said, “it is so peaceful that some people actually feel bored.”

Many independent analysts agreed that the election was a rare exercise in democracy in a country long known for harsh dictatorship.

President Aquino said the voting was “clean, honest, orderly and exceptionally heavy.” When she went to vote Monday morning, she was mobbed by adoring tenant farmers on her family’s 12,000-acre hacienda. When the polling was concluded, she said, “This proves the maturity of the Filipino people and their dedication to the ideals of democracy.”

There was a fiesta-like atmosphere in Manila, and it came as a relief to a city that had been rocked by three bomb blasts on the eve of the election. The military announced Monday that it found 960 sticks of dynamite and arrested 10 people. But a military source who was asked to identify the person or persons behind what appeared to be an attempt to disrupt the voting replied, “My God, it could have been anybody.”

Aquino, who has equated her popularity with the fate of the proposed constitution, scored huge victories in metropolitan Manila and in regions where her support was strong a year ago when she challenged Marcos for the presidency. But there was one strong “no” vote that experts say Aquino cannot afford to ignore.

Military Opposition

Based on canvassing and interviews at polling places around three large military camps in Manila, as many as two-thirds of the 200,000 men in the military appeared to have voted against the constitution, which contains provisions restricting the military’s power and condemning human-rights violations in strong terms. It also permits Aquino to stay on as president until June, 1992, and does away with the death penalty.

“I voted no,” said a colonel who asked not to be identified by name. Asked why, he answered, “Because of some of the provisions--all the ones relating to human rights.”

Other soldiers, all asking not to be further identified, said their negative votes were meant as a direct slap at the president, who in recent weeks has become increasingly alienated from the military, particularly after she ordered that military force be used against about 500 soldiers who rebelled last week and attacked military and broadcasting stations.

The military’s attitude was reflected in a letter to Gen. Fidel V. Ramos, the armed forces chief of staff, from the same reform group that sponsored the military coup against Marcos a year ago.

Indirect Condemnation

In the letter, a copy of which was obtained by The Times, the group, made up of junior and senior officers, indirectly condemned Aquino for her nationwide campaign on behalf of the proposed constitution.

One officer, a captain, said that approval of the constitution will not bring stability, as Aquino has said, and he charged that the president caused deep resentment within the ranks with her hard-line position against the military rebels last week.

“There is so much discontentment now in the armed forces,” the captain said. “Every time the president says, ‘I will punish,’ she sends a ripple of resentment down to the enlisted men. At this point, my own personal feeling is that I’d love to see this government fall . . . and it is not inconceivable. A document cannot stabilize a country. It is only the leadership that can hold a country together.”

Meanwhile, loyal troops gave up their search for at least 100 renegade troops who were believed to have fled into the Sierra Madre mountains after last week’s rebellion, allegedly intended as a prelude to Marcos’ return.

Renegade Command

Reynaldo Cabauatan, the man identified by the military as leader of the renegade “lost command,” surfaced long enough Monday to give a telephone interview to a local radio station, DZRH.

“The plebiscite is good,” Cabauatan said. “At least the people will exercise their rights. . . . To the Filipino people, I am stating that we are not enemies. We in the armed forces, even if we are split, please do not think that we are enemies. We are still with you.”

Cabauatan issued a plea to the voters to support the military in its anti-Communist drive, but he added, “We will not await orders because we do not follow orders right now.”

There was also evidence of considerable opposition to the constitution in regions known to be strongholds of the Communist insurgents.

Leftist-Influenced Area

In the town of Samal, less than two hours from Manila, where leftist leaders took journalists to meet some rebels in December, Rufino Navarro, the provincial chairman for Aquino’s campaign, acknowledged the heavy Communist influence in the region. He insisted, though, that the constitution would be approved by 70% of the voters.

Ernesto Adraneta, a local leftist sympathizer, agreed but added that the left will continue to challenge Aquino because the constitution does not reflect popular sentiment.

“I don’t support the constitution,” he said, “because it’s anti-Communist and anti-people.”

Guillermo Flores, a local fisherman, said he voted no on the constitution because it leaves all treaties in effect, including a fishing agreement with the Japanese government that favors foreigners over local fishermen.

Posters pasted up throughout Manila by a national leftist peasant group echoed these sentiments.

“No to the control of foreigners over the economy of the country,” one said. “No to the ownership of a few over farmlands. No to the prolongation of foreign bases. No to the constitution that is against the citizenry and against Filipinos.”

Regions and neighborhoods with vestiges of loyalty to Marcos rejected the charter outright. In Laoag City, the capital of Marcos’ home province of Ilocos Norte, early returns indicated that 97% of the voters had cast “no” ballots.

Marcos’ Accusation

In Honolulu, where he lives in exile, Marcos accused Aquino of paying voters 100 pesos each ($5) to buy votes. Reporters who toured the country saw no evidence to support the charge.

Almost lost amid the controversy were the actual provisions of the constitution, which restricts the power of the presidency, creates a bicameral legislature, bans abortion, calls for a popular referendum on the future of two huge U.S. bases here and is believed to be the only national charter with the word love in the preamble.

It was drafted by 48 men and women appointed by Aquino. She has said that if the constitution is approved, she will order legislative elections for May 1 and local elections in August. Most voters and poll watchers warned Monday that it is those contests that are likely to be violent.