Government Seen on Hold as Exodus of Talent Begins

A rash of resignations and expected departures has left the White House and the Pentagon facing shortages of senior personnel at a time when the Reagan Administration is already encountering difficulties in filling key jobs, sources in and out of the government say.

As a result, one student of the presidency said: “The opportunities for getting much done have declined radically.”

Moreover, officials say, the political problems President Reagan faces--notably the Iran- contras scandal and the new Democratic majorities in both the Senate and House--are being compounded by both the exodus of veterans and the reluctance of new talent to join an Administration whose end is less than two years away.

In one instance, sources say, an important White House position was filled only after the candidate, a government administrator who first rejected the job offer, was contacted directly by the President and was nearly ordered to accept the post.

And in a more public case, the White House called off its search for an outsider to replace ailing CIA Director William J. Casey, opting for Deputy Director Robert M. Gates, after former Sen. Howard H. Baker Jr. (R-Tenn.) rejected a tentative offer.

“Because of the Administration’s problems, the impression left is that the rats are leaving a sinking ship,” said Larry J. Sabato, a professor of government at the University of Virginia.

To be sure, every administration has experienced a spate of departures in its final years. High-level officials, anticipating the approaching end of their appointments, invariably begin looking for new places to land.

Difficulty in finding top replacements is also a natural reflection of the calendar--fewer people are likely to give up senior positions in business, academia or even the military to accept a job that will last no longer than 23 months.

New White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater, who took over his post this month after veteran predecessor Larry Speakes left for a job on Wall Street, shrugged off the recent exodus philosophically, remarking: “There’s not much you can do about it.”

The President, he said, “understands the desire of people to make a decision and not wait till, you know, the last year of his term.”

President Confident

He said the President is confident that capable candidates will be found for all of the vacancies and that the Administration’s ability to press his programs will not suffer.

“We’re healthy and in good shape,” Fitzwater said.

Nevertheless, other officials and outside experts say the critical timing of the turnover, corresponding with the onset of Reagan’s problems in the new Democratically controlled Congress and the lingering damage caused by the Iran arms scandal, make its effect more acute--depriving the Administration of experienced leadership at a time when it may be needed the most.

Although setbacks from last-term defections are a historic problem, “Reagan faces it in spades,” said Paul C. Light, director of studies at the National Academy of Public Administration.

A Public Relations Problem

“It’s a real public relations problem,” said Sabato. “The impression left is that the Reagan presidency is over and people are trying to get out while the getting is good. . . . It lends weight to this feeling people have, that it’s all falling apart.”

One member of the White House senior staff said White House Chief of Staff Donald T. Regan is aware of that danger and is “sensitive” to the need to “get good people in as quickly as we can.”

But the rate of departures has not made that task an easy one.

In recent weeks, the list of resignations--or reliable indications of resignations--has grown to more than half a dozen names, including Speakes, his assistant Peter Roussel, White House aides Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. and Patrick J. Buchanan.

Daniels’ Resignation

Daniels, Reagan’s assistant for political and intergovernmental affairs, quit recently after failing several months ago to convince Chief of Staff Regan to step down to help the President defuse criticism of his handling of the Iran arms sale operation. Buchanan, the President’s communications director, announced this week he believed he could better play a key role in the conservative movement in the future from outside the Administration.

At the Pentagon, at least three mid- and top-level jobs are being vacated, and an assistant secretary of defense has told an aide there is no need to remain in the Administration “until the last shot is fired,” according to one source.

Nestor D. Sanchez, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Inter-American affairs, has just resigned, and an assistant secretary, James H. Webb Jr., has indicated, at least privately, that he is likely to leave soon. Another assistant secretary, Richard N. Perle, Wednesday denied widespread reports that he would be leaving soon.

Approaching Vacancies

One official, surveying the approaching vacancies, remarked: “It’s going to be very hard to fill them.”

Light said the difference in expertise between those leaving and those moving in may be marked, and will be reflected in the Administration’s actions.

“The only folks who will take the jobs are young people, looking for credentials. You’ll have difficulty appointing anybody, let alone good people, this late in the term,” he predicted.

Thus, he said, Reagan is likely to concentrate on the area “where he has the greatest discretion--foreign affairs.” But, Light pointed out, as a result of the Iran effort and questions about the Administration’s commitment to arms control, “that’s where he’ll be under the most scrutiny.”

Domestic Affairs

In the area of domestic affairs, the Administration has turned its attention to such issues as insurance to cover the costs of catastrophic health problems, and welfare reform--two sensitive areas that Light said Democrats in Congress were unlikely to cede to a Republican Administration.

“What you end up with is, the President has little room to move domestically, and he is closely scrutinized in foreign policy. That’s a recipe for ‘lame duckery,’ ” he said.

But Sabato, the University of Virginia professor, said Reagan’s personnel problem “can be turned to an advantage, if the replenishments allow the President to refurbish his image, if they are particularly competent and able.”

Indeed, remarked Fitzwater: “It’s good to get new energy.” And Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.), referring to those departing, said: “I assume they’ll all be replaced with outstanding people.”

But, Sabato asked: “How can you attract people like that when you can only assure them 1 1/2 years” of work?