European Nations Fear Declining Populations

The Old World is getting older fast, and European leaders fear that falling populations may threaten their economies, their defense and even their national identities.

Throughout Europe, West and East, people are living longer, but births have fallen below the levels necessary to replace present numbers.

“This is very serious indeed,” said Philippe Bourcier de Carbon of the prestigious French National Institute for Demographic Studies.

“You might think about this: During 1987, as many children will be born in Turkey and Egypt as in all 12 countries of the European Common Market.”

There will be half as many Europeans in 100 years as there are today, according to projections by West German demographer Rolf Benkert in a study for the Council of Europe. The council’s 21 member countries have 400 million inhabitants.

Africa’s Population Boom

By contrast, Africa’s population doubles every 21 years.

“I am very alarmed about the consequences,” Benkert said. He noted that projections are subject to changing behavior but that the trend is clear.

French historian Pierre Chaunu says the threat to Europe is less a Soviet “red menace” or an Islamic “green menace” than a “white menace” from within: the collapse of its own demography.

In some countries, concerns are specific and pressing.

- West Germany’s population declines by 3,000 a week. To meet commitments to Western allies, army service is being extended from 15 months to 18. And that is a stopgap.

- Sweden, Denmark and Norway already stagger under the load of welfare and pensions for a growing retired community while a diminishing number of younger people are available to be taxed.

- Italy’s sudden sharp decrease in fertility is throwing its social services and educational systems out of balance.

‘Europe Is Vanishing’

But all European countries express concern about a trend that has been clear for years. Jacques Chirac, now premier of France, said in 1984: “In demographic terms, Europe is vanishing. In 20 years or so, our countries will be empty. No matter what our technological strength, we will be incapable of putting it to use.”

French politicians see the decline as a threat to grandeur. A recent article in the weekly l’Express worried: “There will never be 60 million Frenchmen.” Now there are 55 million.

European life expectancy reaches 79 for women and 72 for men, slightly higher than in the United States and 50% higher than some parts of the world.

Nearly 15% of Europeans are over 65 compared to 11% a generation ago. In the United States, the figure is 12%.

To maintain zero population growth, women must average 2.1 births. In West Germany, Denmark and Sweden, the rate is below 1.3. Britain’s is 1.7 and France’s a shade higher.

Italy, Spain, Portugal

In a decade, Italy has slipped from 2.2 to 1.5. Spain and Portugal, both over reproduction rates 10 years ago, are each near 1.8.

The main reason, demographers agree, is that young people cannot afford, or do not want, big families. Fewer couples marry. Women have children later, if at all. Increasingly, they stop at two.

“That’s it for me,” said Sabine Mabouche, a young French writer with two children. “I can’t handle any more kids and still work. You have to make a choice.”

But in a series of interviews, demographers disagreed over the pace and implications of the changes.

“This is very dramatic, very worrisome, because when a society loses the will to reproduce, it loses its vitality,” said Antonella Pinnelli of La Sapienza University in Rome.

Italian, French ‘Drivel’

“Drivel,” said William Brass of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “The Italians and French always talk like that.”

He warned against projecting human behavior. During a downward cycle in 1931, he said, forecasters said England would drop below 10 million inhabitants early next century. After the baby boom, others said it would reach 75 million by 2000. There are now 58 million.

“I have two daughters, and they cover both extremes,” Brass said. “One wants no children at all. The other has two, and would be perfectly happy with more.” Customs change constantly, he said.

Peter Laslett of Cambridge University said the problem is not an aging population but a failure to employ old people. “Who is to say that at 71 I cannot be useful in defense or in other fields?”

Laslett argues that governments should emphasize adult education and retraining.

‘Obsolete’ Trinity College’

“This place is totally obsolete,” he said, waving an arm toward the yard of Trinity College where Isaac Newton and John Locke philosophized about sciences three centuries ago. “To give a small elite an education expected to last a lifetime, it’s preposterous.”

But Brass and Laslett acknowledge that the numbers are not promising.

Even in France, where the government pays a “temporary maternal salary” for three years for a third or fourth child, the economics work against large families.

“The jump from two children to three is enormous,” said Bourcier de Carbon. “With three children, a woman stays home and gives up a salary that might be 40% of the family income.”

Barry Goodfield, an American psychoanalyst who works in Western Europe, added: “In the 1960s, getting ahead was not a social value. Now people realize a child means an older car, not owning a home. Before, a woman with children was seen as a good wife. Now, it is a woman with a job.”

Many People, Few Jobs

Paradoxically, European leaders today worry that too many people are looking for scarce jobs. Most have clamped down hard on immigration. France, West Germany and Switzerland press migrant workers to return home.

But as European populations stagnate and fall, Third World countries grow at rates of up to 4% a year.

“There will be mounting pressure for immigration from Africa and the Middle East,” Bourcier de Carbon said. “That much is certain.”

Goodfield said he sees signs of growing racism that he expects will worsen.

“The only way to keep a balance of power is increased technology and economic superiority,” he said. “Europeans will see the Third World as a threat and, after all, that is a reality.”

Most of Eastern Europe faces the same crisis as the West. Birth rates remain high in Poland, but officials in Romania are so worried that women are examined regularly to discourage illegal abortions.

Textbook Case

Bourcier de Carbon called East and West Germany a textbook case of how officials can affect birth rates. Each had identical dropping curves until Communist authorities offered lucrative incentives in 1976. East Germany shot ahead.

But fertility campaigns are not popular in West Germany, he added.

“(Adolf) Hitler said Germans should have big families, so anyone who says that now is seen as a Nazi,” he said. “That is ridiculous, but it is inescapable.”

Italian demographers report the same prejudices.

“If someone here urges mothers to have more children, he is regarded as either a fascist or a communist,” Pinnelli said, with a hearty laugh.

The French have no such hesitations. Government posters display a newborn infant under the slogan, “There is more than sex to life--France needs children.”

But, even in France, incentives make little headway.

“I suppose there is a little bit around the edges,” said Bourcier de Carbon. “But if the French, or anyone else, want to make a difference, they must spend a lot more for a very long time. And that is not likely.”