Shultz Visit May Help U.S. Assess China’s Power Shift

U.S. strategic planners, who for almost a decade have counted on China to counterbalance Soviet military and political power in Asia, have been shaken by the latest political upheaval in Beijing, which could spell a resurgence of orthodox Marxists suspicious of economic reform and of more open relations with the West.

The prevailing view in the U.S. government is that the January ouster of Hu Yaobang, an unabashed economic and political reformer, from the post of Communist Party general secretary is an internal matter that is not expected to affect China’s foreign policy, according to sources in Washington and Beijing.

But a senior Administration official concedes that the situation remains “very fluid.”

Key questions--which American officials admit they cannot answer with certainty--concern the standing of Deng Xiaoping, China’s pre-eminent leader since the death in 1976 of Mao Tse-tung. Is Deng still in firm political control or has his power been eroded? Is the 82-year-old leader still mentally alert and physically healthy?

Later this week, Secretary of State George P. Shultz leaves for China to attempt to assess the situation. U.S. officials say that the visit is far more important than many of Shultz’s foreign trips because he has been assured of face-to-face talks with Deng and Premier Zhao Ziyang, who is now acting general secretary of the party, as well as Foreign Minister Wu Xueqian.

A senior official in Washington predicted that Chinese officials will do everything they can to project an optimistic mood during the Shultz visit in an effort to reassure the United States that China’s political changes have not affected the Washington-Beijing relationship.

“This will be an interesting trip,” the official said. “I would expect it to be very upbeat.”

The ouster last month of Hu came as a shock in the West because he was considered a champion of efforts to liberalize both the economy and the country’s political system. He was forced to resign in the midst of student demonstrations for greater democratization, although his political problems probably had deeper roots than that. Since Hu was a protege of Deng, his ouster has raised questions about how firmly Deng remains in control. However, Zhou, the acting general secretary, is also a Deng associate.

View in Hong Kong Differs

Although the U.S. Embassy in Beijing has been consistently optimistic in its assessment of the situation, there are dissenting opinions--held, according to sources, particularly by the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong.

For the six months that preceded Hu’s ouster, the embassy had reported that the Chinese leadership was firmly in control and that economic reforms were on track. After Hu’s departure, embassy analysts said that the shake-up might affect economic reform, but they maintained that Deng’s position remained secure.

The consulate in Hong Kong has been much more skeptical both about the prospect for continued economic reform and about Deng’s ultimate position.

The senior official said that staffers at the Hong Kong consulate may be reflecting the attitudes of Hong Kong businessmen in the face of Britain’s scheduled 1997 turnover to China of power in the flamboyant capitalist enclave. Viewed from Hong Kong, almost any economy in the world might appear to be fettered. On the other hand, he said, the staff in the U.S. Embassy in Beijing might be reflecting the views of the Chinese leadership.

Division Not New

Michel Oksenberg, a former China specialist for the National Security Council, said that the Beijing-Hong Kong division is not a new one.

“Beijing reporting has always tended to be more calm while Hong Kong interpretations tend to focus on divisions (in the leadership) and rumors of power struggle,” Oksenberg, now a University of Michigan professor, said. “Hong Kong is a rumor mill while in Beijing, the U.S. diplomats see people in authority far more than they see people who are seeking to attain power.”

A senior State Department official, briefing reporters Tuesday in advance of the trip, adopted the optimistic line. He said that Hu’s ouster and other political changes were “a little bump on the road but perhaps no more than that.”

The official said that the shake-up “should not have any long-term or permanent effect on atmosphere for foreign investment and trade and economic development.”

From the Chinese standpoint, the Shultz visit gives them a chance to assess the impact of the Iran- contras affair on the U.S. government. While Shultz and his aides are trying to find out just what is going on in China, the Chinese can be expected to ask virtually identical questions about what is going on in the United States.

Both countries want to know if the upheaval will affect the foreign policy of the other. And both want to know if the other’s aging leader is still calling the shots.

Oksenberg noted that the turmoil of the 1973-74 Watergate era in the United States also coincided with political jockeying in China as Mao’s health continued to wane.

“It is curious, this mirror imaging that our two countries seem to have,” Oksenberg said. “Our periods of domestic political uncertainty seem to mirror theirs.”

Presumably Shultz will be as determined to project an image of stability as his Chinese hosts. Shultz is scheduled to leave Washington on Thursday morning, a few hours before the Tower Commission is to deliver its report on the Iran- contras controversy.

If each side succeeds in convincing the other that it continues to be a reliable partner, Shultz and his hosts will have a number of substantive issues to discuss--the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, the occupation of Cambodia by the Soviets’ Vietnamese ally and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. But, as usual, the most important topic for Washington-Beijing talks is the Soviet Union.

Some U.S. officials are concerned that Sino-Soviet relations may be warming a bit after years of bitter hostility. Beijing and Moscow have opened talks aimed at settling longstanding border disputes. During the last eight months, China has established party-to-party relations with the Communist rulers of five Eastern European countries, virtually the entire membership of the Warsaw Pact with the exception of the Soviet Union itself.

If the more orthodox Marxists improve their political position within the Chinese government, they may want to seek a more evenhanded balance between the superpowers after years in which China cooperated with the United States because of a shared antipathy for the Soviet Union.

However, the senior Administration official said that the Chinese military continues to be far more concerned about Soviet military might, which virtually encircles China, than about American forces, which--except for South Korea--are deployed far from the Chinese borders. Also, he said, senior U.S. and Chinese military leaders have conferred regularly in recent years while there has been very little friendly contact between Chinese and Soviet military officials.

“People say China is balancing us against the Russians, but just look at the traffic on the military side,” the official said.

U.S.-Chinese Military Ties

Some U.S. officials are concerned that China’s campaign against “bourgeois liberalization”--which has accompanied the political shake-up and the efforts by orthodox Marxists to delay or possibly derail economic reforms--will lead to new human rights abuses.

So far, as seen from Washington, the campaign has produced a chill in China’s treatment of its own population but has not affected the country’s foreign policy. Shultz is expected to treat this issue delicately. Washington would like to encourage China to improve its human rights performance but does not want the issue to cast a shadow over other aspects of the relationship.

“The Chinese press is a little less shrill and more measured today than it was in early January,” Oksenberg said. “One can detect an effort under way to limit the consequences of the anti-intellectual campaign of earlier this year.”

Norman Kempster reported from Washington. Jim Mann is The Times’ bureau chief in Beijing.