Experts Fear Arms Race if Pakistan Builds A-Bomb

Pakistan has a small stockpile of nuclear bomb material and has only to produce a nuclear weapon to touch off an arms race with neighboring India that could jeopardize U.S.-Soviet disarmament negotiations, government and scientific experts warned Friday.

Sen. John Glenn (D-Ohio), reflecting increased concern on Capitol Hill, is leading criticism within the United States of what he charges is the Reagan Administration’s failure to pressure Pakistan sufficiently to end its nuclear program.

In a recent letter to President Reagan, Glenn conceded the importance of Pakistan’s role in helping Afghan rebels in their fight against Soviet forces that invaded Afghanistan in 1979, but he nevertheless called for a cutoff of aid to Pakistan until it ends its program to produce nuclear weapons.

One Indian expert, who declined to be identified, said it is clear that Pakistan can produce small quantities of weapons-grade nuclear material now, enough to manufacture perhaps one weapon a year. India can produce enough material to make 10 to 12 bombs a year, he said.

“A nuclear race would be a race between a horse and a donkey,” he said. “But we don’t want a race even if we can win it.”

Last October, the State Department certified that a $5-billion military and economic aid package for Pakistan was in compliance with federal law that prohibits U.S. aid to a nation that possesses a “nuclear explosive device.”

Richard N. Perle, the outgoing assistant secretary of defense for international security, refused to predict in Senate testimony last week whether the United States will certify Pakistan’s eligibility for continuing aid this year.

Glenn proposed to Reagan in his letter that all military aid be suspended pending an investigation and that aid not be resumed until Reagan receives “reliable assurances from the Pakistanis that they have ceased producing nuclear explosive materials.”

Sabotage Seen

Leonard Weiss, staff director of the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, which Glenn heads, said Friday that an arms race in South Asia could “sabotage the U.S.-Soviet arms agreement” to eliminate medium-range missiles in Europe that the Reagan Administration hopes to achieve by September.

Weiss argued that the Pakistan issue would increase Soviet concerns about the power balance in the Far East and the basing of missiles in Asia, which is an integral part of the proposed U.S.-Soviet agreement.

“If Pakistan builds an atomic bomb, India would probably build a thermonuclear weapon and China would definitely be alarmed,” he said. “The whole balance of power in Asia could be affected, and the result would be to sabotage the U.S.-Soviet arms agreement, and you could eventually wind up with a nuclear standoff in the Mideast.”

‘Islamic Bomb?’

Complicating the issue further are fears that Pakistan, which maintains strong ties with the Arab world, is building an “Islamic bomb” that could be used by Arab states against Israel.

Rodney Jones, a research scientist and author in the field of nuclear non-proliferation who is affiliated with the nonprofit Center for National Security Negotiations, labeled these allegations “nonsense.”

Jones said he believes that Pakistan’s project is domestically inspired and stems from an initiative in the mid-1970s of the late Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was ousted and later executed by Pakistan’s present leader, Gen. Zia ul-Haq.

“But if you ask the question, ‘Would the Arab countries be interested if Pakistan developed a nuclear weapon?’ I think the answer would be yes,” Jones said.

‘Peaceful Purposes’

Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Jamsheed K. A. Marker, protested in a letter Friday in the Washington Post that his government’s nuclear program is “devoted entirely to peaceful purposes.” He said his country has urged India to sign a treaty to control the spread of nuclear weapons and is ready to do so if India agrees to mutual inspection.

But a State Department official, speaking on the condition that he not be identified, said the Administration has “serious concerns” about a plant Pakistan is building to manufacture enriched uranium that could be used to produce material for weapons.

Jones, Weiss and Indian officials questioned the need for construction of a plant to produce 90% enriched uranium when Pakistan has only one nuclear reactor, a 1972 plant that uses only natural--unenriched--uranium.

Indian Embassy spokesman S. S. Mukherjee said the dispute between the neighboring states would be lessened significantly if the United States would ban the sale to Pakistan of U.S. AWACS planes, which carry sophisticated airborne radar systems.