As Other Incumbents Retire, 8th District Race Loses Spotlight

As recently as last month, it appeared that a hotly contested election for the open seat in the San Diego City Council’s 8th District would be, in the words of one local political consultant, “the only game in town” this fall.

Because the three other council elections on the November ballot appeared to be races in name only, in which seemingly unbeatable incumbents would face only token opposition, the 8th District contest clearly was the major object on the city’s political horizon. Interest in that race was heightened by the widely held perception that the victor would become the critical “swing” vote on the council.

The seat is held by appointed Councilwoman Celia Ballesteros.

Retirements Abound

However, the complexion of Campaign ’87 has changed dramatically in the last month. What once seemed a largely somnolent formality--an example not so much of democracy in action as democracy going through the motions--has been transformed into the most wide open, frenetic local election in a decade.

After the recently announced political retirements of Councilmen William Jones and Bill Cleator, the 8th District race--in which Ballesteros pledged not to run as a condition of her appointment--now must share the political pedestal with the furious scramble that the two incumbents’ withdrawals unleashed in their districts.

And the bitter controversy swirling around 6th District Councilman Mike Gotch stemming from his support for the proposed development of a complex of restaurants and boutiques at Belmont Park has transformed his once “safe” reelection bid into a potentially tough battle; he now appears vulnerable.

Some political observers, in fact, believe that Gotch ultimately may decide not to face the electorate--and at least three formidable opponents who intend to oppose him--to seek a third four-year term in the 6th District this fall.

“I look at 1987 as 1977 all over again,” said politically prominent business executive Michel Anderson, referring to a year in which four freshmen were elected to the council. “I think it’s going to be a wonderful, invigorating experience for the city to go through this kind of house cleaning.”

Coverage to Wane

As a result of the recent developments, 8th District candidates who once could count on saturation press coverage and hefty campaign contributions now face competition for both--a new political reality that could substantially alter both that and other local races this fall.

“The 8th District race is no longer the main event,” said lawyer Michael Aguirre, one of the campaign’s major candidates. “Now, it’s just part of an overall free-for-all and not as pivotal as it once was. The ballgame sure has changed a lot.”

The increasingly cluttered political picture will, to some degree, affect all candidates, but the impact arguably will be most noticeable in the 8th District. It is in that race that candidates now must adjust to conditions far different than when their strategies were plotted and budgets were planned over the last six months.

Neil Good, administrative assistant to County Supervisor Leon Williams and an 8th District contender, said: “In a sense, you have to recalculate the equation and re-examine everything to see if it’s still valid.”

Fund-Raising Reevaluated

One such recalculation concerns fund-raising. Aguirre and former San Diego school board member Bob Filner, another leading 8th District hopeful, have said they expect to spend at least $100,000 in the September primary. Good’s target is about $75,000.

When it was assumed that the three other council races would be relatively passive affairs in which incumbents would not need, and challengers probably could not raise, sizable treasuries, Aguirre, Good and Filner anticipated easily reaching those targets. Now, however, they concede that the added competition for contributions will make it more difficult to reach those goals.

“There are going to be a lot more hands out than before,” political consultant Nick Johnson said. Consequently, Aguirre, echoing a sentiment shared by others, said that he expects fund-raising to be “much more time-consuming and much more difficult” than he had envisioned.

Anderson added, “Instead of maybe a half dozen major candidates in the 8th, it now looks like upward of two dozen candidates (overall) are going to be begging for dollars. Since there’s a limited number of people who regularly contribute to local campaigns, the candidates who come knocking at their doors probably are going to come away with less than they might have otherwise. It’s going to be a real cash crunch year.”

Other Races Affected

The impact of that crunch obviously will not be limited to the 8th District because the newcomers in the other races will face the same pressures.

“Candidates are going to be forced to have all kinds of contingency plans and ways to scale back their budgets if they can’t raise as much as they hoped,” said Byron Wear, a partner in a public relations and political consulting firm. He plans to seek Cleator’s 2nd District seat. “I’m anticipating that’s going to be a problem, so I’ll have an A, B and C budget.”

The aggressive competition for campaign dollars could give an edge to wealthy candidates who, if necessary, could underwrite their races with their personal funds--though admittedly at the risk of being accused of trying to “buy” the election.

The candidates who at least have that option, however, include Aguirre and two potential 2nd District candidates--San Diego Unified School District President Kay Davis, the wife of a developer, and Yvonne Larsen, a former city school board president and the wife of a contractor.

Any difficulty that the major candidates encounter in their fund-raising could benefit other contenders who, at least in the initial stages of the campaign, lack the name recognition, organization and other resources of the early front-runners.

“I guess that anything that’s bad for the so-called ‘major’ candidates is good for the so-called ‘minor’ candidates,” Gail MacLeod, an 8th District candidate, said. “If it results in money being less of a factor, I’d see that as a plus. That could help those of us who are relying on things like walking door to door instead of just a lot of money to get our message out.”

A Plus for the ‘Majors’

Not all of the political byproducts of the increased campaign activity are beneficial to “minor” candidates, however--particularly those in the 8th District. To date, that race has been scrutinized, and has received frequent coverage from the media--a trend that, barring any other closely contested elections, probably would have continued through Election Day.

But the departures of Cleator and Jones in the 2nd and 4th districts, respectively, combined with the dramatically different dynamics of Gotch’s 6th District contest, already have begun to divert press and public attention from the 8th District.

That reduction in news coverage could, in turn, make it more difficult for lesser candidates to receive the kind of publicity--”unpaid media,” in political jargon--that might open doors to bigger campaign donors and others who could help them make the somewhat intangible leap from “minor” to “major” candidate status.

“Increased competition for contributions and coverage generally makes the strong candidates stronger and weak candidates weaker,” said political consultant David Lewis, whose clients include potential 8th District candidate Bob Castaneda Jr. “It becomes tougher for candidates to break out of the pack.”

Aguirre admitted that he would not be displeased if that proved to be the case.

“If it becomes more difficult for other candidates to become better known, that’s not a disadvantage from the perspective of my candidacy,” Aguirre said. “I mean, I’d like the voters to have a fair chance to make a decision. But I can’t say I’m so noble that I’m sorry to see anything that might make it more difficult for other candidates.”

Some Ambivalence Noted

Some political activists confess to having some ambivalence toward the gradual emergence of a much more active campaign calendar this fall. On the one hand, they are enthused by the prospect of three, and possibly four, competitive races--a political rarity in a county where most contests begin and end as one-sided--in which the cumulative stake is the council’s partisan and philosophical balance, as well as Mayor Maureen O’Connor’s ability to direct a council majority.

But on the other hand, they are considerably less than thrilled by the realization that the increased political activity also means greater demands for financial contributions in a year that, until recently, they expected to be relatively quiet--and, therefore, inexpensive.

“I’m sure that more letters asking for more money will be in the mail by the end of the month,” businessman Anderson said of Cleator’s decision not to run.

Nancy MacHutchin, widely regarded as one of San Diego’s top political fund-raisers, estimates that 7,000 San Diegans contribute regularly to campaigns. Less than half of them, she added, “could be considered major players.”

“Incestuous” Fund-Raising

“They’re the ones who get hit all the time for donations,” said MacHutchin, former Mayor Roger Hedgecock’s chief fund-raiser and who now is working on Filner’s campaign. “Every candidate hits them, they hit each other--it’s very incestuous. And yes, they do get tired of it sometimes and complain of being tapped out.”

That sentiment is especially prevalent in the local building and development industry, whose members complain that many politicians increasingly rely on them as a major source of campaign dollars.

“I’m sure that most of them will come calling, because they usually do,” said Mike Reynolds, president of the Building Industry Assn. “But I hope they’ll try to seek a broader spectrum of support instead of constantly going back to the same people.”

With the council campaigns still in the genesis stage, 8th District candidate Good acknowledged that the full ramifications of the recent thunderbolts that cracked through San Diego’s political skies cannot yet be gauged.

“The changes have come so fast that it’s going to take awhile to figure out who they might help and who they could hurt,” Good said. “These things will sort themselves out over time.”

Another Beneficiary

There is one group, however, that appears destined to be a victor, regardless of how “things sort themselves out.” The recent political developments ultimately might prove to be good for some candidates and bad for others, but for political consultants, they mean simply one thing: more business.

Earlier this year, consultant Jim Johnston, Lewis’ partner, good-naturedly lamented that the seemingly pervasive political doldrums might result in the need for “a Political Consultants Preservation Act.” That concern, as well as any notion that 1987 would be a rather dull chapter in San Diego’s recent political history, has since been obliterated.

“We started off thinking this year wasn’t going to be terribly exciting,” Lewis said. “But we’ve sure changed our minds about that.”