‘COP’ SEQUEL IS HOTTEST PROSPECT FOR SUMMER OF ’87

You are, of course, familiar with the old saying that an optimist is a person who looks at a theater and sees it as half full and that a pessimist is one who looks at the same theater and sees it as half empty.

As America’s movie exhibitors prepare for their annual summer box-office harvest, there appear to be only optimists among them.

“I have not had a single exhibitor say he didn’t think this summer was going to be a good one,” said John Krier, of National Exhibitor Relations, a Beverly Hills-based firm that provides information services for theater operators. “But exhibitors are, by nature, optimistic.”

There is one thing about Hollywood’s summer of ’87 that everyone is agreed on: The theaters are going to be more than half-full wherever “Beverly Hills Cop II” is playing. It is, from every point of view, the season’s one sure blockbuster hit.

Exhibitors who have seen rough cuts of the Eddie Murphy comedy/drama say it is as good or better than the original that grossed $350 million worldwide and Murphy’s star is brighter than ever. As the young actor/comedian proved with “The Golden Child”--one of the worst successful movies ever made--his name is a marquee magnet.

After “Beverly Hills Cop II,” it gets very hard to handicap the field of major studio summer movies. There are other sequels--the fourth “Superman,” the fourth “Jaws,” the fourth Benji and the 15th James Bond--but each one raises commercial questions.

“Superman IV,” a Cannon film being released by Warner Bros., brings back Christopher Reeve, Gene Hackman, Margot Kidder and other veterans from the three Alexander Salkind-produced episodes and it is certain to open well. But the characters had worn pretty thin by the end of “Superman III” and, like the Man of Steel after a whiff of Kryptonite, it may begin to stagger soon.

“Jaws--The Revenge” will pack theaters with Lorraine Gary fans, but how many can there be? Gary is the only returnee from the original “Jaws” (she played Roy Scheider’s wife in the first two episodes) and it’s hard to imagine this tired theme being successfully recycled again.

The latest Bond film, “The Living Daylights,” asks us to accept yet another face as 007. Whether Timothy Dalton will follow in the successful fooasteps of Sean Connery and Roger Moore, or go the way of George Lazenby, we’ll be the judges.

The most talked about films for this summer are Elaine May’s “Ishtar,” Stanley Kubrick’s “Full Metal Jacket” and Brian De Palma’s “The Untouchables.”

“Full Metal Jacket,” a Vietnam combat drama, has been two years in the making from the man many people regard as the greatest living director. But no one, including Warner Bros. brass, has seen the finished film yet and exhibitors are understandably nervous about its commercial prospects.

Columbia Pictures, under new management since “Ishtar” was green-lighted, has its hands full trying to prevent critics from pre-judging a movie that seems to beg for comparisons to “Heaven’s Gate.” The comedy adventure, about a second-rate two-man (Dustin Hoffman and Warren Beatty) nightclub act that gets caught up in espionage in North Africa, has reportedly run up a production tab close to “Heaven’s Gate’s” $46-million cost.

Eyewitness accounts of recruited audience screenings in the East last weekend have been mixed, but weighted on the positive side.

Exhibitor reaction to “The Untouchables” has been cool. The gangster epic, rehashing Eliot Ness’ hounding of Al Capone, is said to be laced with quality action, but Kevin Costner’s Ness has disappointed some of the early viewers.

From conversations with exhibitors, studio people and other interested observers, here are the movies likeliest to do good business this summer:

“Beverly Hills Cop II” (Paramount): Murphy doing what he does best, tweaking the establishment.

“The Witches of Eastwick” (Warner Bros.): Jack Nicholson graces Cher, Susan Sarandon and Michelle Pfeiffer with his killer smile in this big-budget supernatural thriller adapted from John Updike’s best seller and directed by Australia’s George Miller (“Mad Max”).

“Innerspace” (Warner Bros.): Joe Dante (“Gremlins”) directed this comedy adventure about a test pilot (Dennis Quaid) and his attempt to escape from the body of a supermarket clerk (Martin Short) after a scientific experiment goes awry.

“Ishtar” (Columbia): Can a $40-million movie be a laughing matter?

“The Living Daylights”: (United Artists) In Episode 15 of the movie industry’s most successful series, new-look agent 007 takes on arms dealers, terrorists, a heroin mogul and the KGB.

“The Untouchables” (Paramount): Eliot Ness and Al Capone go at it again, from a script by playwright David Mamet.

“Harry and the Hendersons” (Universal): A Steven Spielberg production with an “E.T.” theme about an ordinary family hosting an extraordinary house guest.

“Dragnet”: (Universal) Dan Aykroyd and Tom Hanks team up as Sgt. Joe Friday and his sidekick in this parody of the old TV series that made “dum-da-dum-dum” a national jingle.

“Superman IV”: (Warner Bros.) Supervillain Lex Luthor (Gene Hackman) is a nuclear arms dealer in this episode and the Man of Steel must save the world once more.

“Full Metal Jacket” (Warner Bros.): Stanley Kubrick’s first film since “The Shining” focuses on a squad of Marines during the 1968 Tet Offensive.

“Spaceballs” (MGM): Mel Brooks’ first movie since “The History of the World, Part I” goofs around in outer space.

“Roxanne” (Columbia): Steve Martin is a modern-day Cyrano de Bergerac in this comedy about a log-nosed smalltown fire chief who becomes involved in the deception for love of visiting astronomer Daryl Hannah.

“Revenge of the Nerds II”: (Fox) Robert Carradine is back in wide-rimmed glasses and white socks for another eggheads-versus-jocks campus adventure.

“The Predator” (Fox): Arnold Schwarzenegger plays the leader of a rescue squad that goes into a Latin American jungle and finds itself being the purused.

“The Believers” (Orion): Martin Sheen and Helen Shaver star in this modern occult thriller directed by John Schlesinger.

“Robocop” (Orion): A futuristic comedy fantasy about a cyborg cop (Peter Weller) programmed to clean up the streets of Detroit. First American film by Dutch director Paul Verhoeven (“Spetters,” “Soldier of Orange”).

“Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” (Disney): The re-issued animated classics never fail.

“Stake Out”: (Disney-Touchstone) John Badham directs this romance drama about a cop (Richard Dreyfuss) who falls in love with the girlfriend of the criminal (Aidan Quinn)he’s pursuing.

“Benji the Hunted”: (Disney) Kids will take their parents kicking and screaming to the intellectual mutt’s latest adventure.

“Nadine” (Tri-Star): Jeff Bridges and Kim Basinger star in a suspense-thriller written and directed by Robert Benton and set in 1953 Austin, Tex.

“Million Dollar Mystery” (DEG): A comedy adventure in the mold of “It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World,” in which a cast of zanies pursue clues to a hidden fortune of $4 million. They only find $3 million in the movie. The other $1 million will be given to the winner of moviegoers’sweepstakes.