Thatcher’s in the Driver’s Seat

British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has until June, 1988, to subject her leadership to the judgment of the people. Barring an unexpected catastrophe in local elections being held today, however, she will announce next week that national elections will be held on June 11.

Prime ministers traditionally try to call elections when their party has the best chance of winning. Among Thatcher’s ruling Conservatives, the only question really has been whether the election should be held now or in the fall. Those favoring an early election received a decisive boost from the most recent public-opinion poll, which gave the Conservatives a 14% lead over the Labor Party and a 19% edge over the combined forces of the Liberal and Social Democratic parties.

The Conservatives are benefiting not so much from public enthusiasm for their programs as from a perception that the Labor Party cannot be trusted to rule. Logically, the centrist Liberal Social Democratic alliance should be the beneficiary of the widespread disillusionment with Labor, but it hasn’t worked out that way.

Labor suffers from the fact that many of its local candidates and officeholders are far to the left of the party as represented in Parliament. Then there is the upheaval caused by a racial factor.

Most black people in Britain vote Labor. But every member of the House of Commons is white. The 28-member executive committee of the Labor Party doesn’t have any black members, either. The Labor Party has made sure that 12 Asians and blacks will be on the ballot in the next election. But efforts by black Labor politicians to establish caucuses within the party have been harshly rejected by the leadership. Resentment among blacks may affect the pro-Labor turnout in the coming election.

The most damaging factor of all, however, is Labor’s defense policy. The party vows that, if elected, it will pursue the withdrawal of U.S. nuclear forces from Britain and eliminate Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent. Many Britons are nervous about their dependence on American military might, but they aren’t prepared to go down the path of unilateral nuclear disarmament or to invite the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Europe.

The United States, in principle, must remain aloof from the internal politics of its European allies. But in fact the British Labor Party, through its self-destructive defense posture, leaves Americans little choice but to root for a Conservative election victory.