China-India Border Dispute Smoldering : Military Confrontation Feared Over 2 Contested Himalayan Regions

China and India, with two of the world’s largest armies, may be nearing a military confrontation in their decades-old border dispute in the Himalayas.

“It’s not a stable situation,” a Western diplomat in Beijing said Thursday. He said he thinks it is possible that fighting could break out between the two countries within the next few weeks.

The latest sign of deteriorating relations came Wednesday when a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry repeated recent complaints that Indian troops have intruded on Chinese territory. This time the Chinese spokesman added a warning that India should withdraw its forces immediately if it wishes to ease tension along the border and to avoid “the possible occurrence of an unpleasant event.”

Lhasa Airport Restricted

India said China’s accusations were “baseless and without foundation.” It issued a statement saying India “has no intention of seeking a conflict with China.”

For the last two weeks, the airport at Lhasa, Tibet, has been closed to civilian flights. Chinese officials say the airport is being improved, but some analysts here believe that the timing of the closure is associated with military developments along the Indian border.

Any outbreak of hostilities between the world’s two most populous countries could affect other countries in Asia. India has defense ties with the Soviet Union and Vietnam, while China has a close relationship with Pakistan.

The dispute over the 1,200-mile-long border has already led to one armed clash. In 1962, Chinese troops attacked and quickly inflicted a series of defeats on Indian forces. After three weeks, China withdrew, maintaining that its troops had “taught India a lesson.”

At issue are two separate areas, remote but strategically important.

One is at the point where India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh touches southeastern Tibet. China has long maintained that in this area India occupies 34,000 square miles of Chinese territory south of the Himalayas.

The other disputed area lies to the west, where the north Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir adjoins western Tibet and China’s Xinjiang region. There, Chinese troops occupy 14,500 square miles of land that China seized in the 1962 war. India still claims the area.

Since 1981, China and India have met several times in an effort to settle the dispute, but in the past year the atmosphere has turned increasingly acrimonious.

Last year, India charged that Chinese troops were intruding into Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh. In December, the Indian Parliament amended the constitution to upgrade Arunachal Pradesh from a territory to a state. The action drew a series of strong protests from China.

Border Buildup

Friction between the two countries has increased markedly in the last month. On April 16, the Times of India published a defense commentary saying the two countries were building up their forces along the border and predicting that China would attack by this summer.

On three separate occasions since mid-April, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has lashed out at India. On April 22, a Chinese spokesman complained that India had “amassed its troops in areas along the Sino-Indian boundary and conducted a large-scale military exercise.” The Chinese spokesman said Indian troops “repeatedly crossed the line of actual control by the two sides, nibbling at Chinese territory, forcibly occupied some places and sent military aircraft to violate China’s airspace from time to time.”

India Denies Incursions

India has rebutted these allegations. “India . . . has given strict instructions to all its personnel not to cross the international boundary between India and China,” the Indian government said this week. “It is not our intention to mass troops or to conduct any belligerent exercises.”

Some analysts here believe that China may be taking a tougher stand toward India in order to take advantage of Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s recent efforts to court China. Tension along the border between China and India might force Gorbachev to choose between India, a longtime Soviet ally, and his campaign for rapprochement with China.

The next round of China-India border negotiations has been planned for this year in New Delhi, but China has not agreed to a date.