Aquino’s Big Victory May Mean Trouble

Paul Aquino, campaign coordinator of the government coalition and the president’s brother-in-law, nervously examined the latest election results showing the opposition, including its star contender, former Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile, trailing well behind the administration candidates.

“You do a good job,” he said, “then you can sleep at night.”

Ironically, the unexpected landslide victory both in the Senate and the House of Representatives in the Philippines’ first free legislative election in 16 years was giving the triumphant government some sleepless nights. For even as Paul Aquino was talking, defeated opposition candidates were agitating a large crowd of supporters against the government of popular President Corazon Aquino and charging it with massive electoral fraud.

Last Monday’s elections were, by most accounts, the most peaceful and honest in many years. They also produced a record voter turnout of more than 90%. While there was evidence of cheating and vote-buying at the congressional-district level, the opposition has been unable to show proof of systematic and wholesale fraud. More important, the general public perception here is that the elections were comparatively clean.

Unofficial results as of Friday showed only one opposition candidate, a popular movie star, making it to the 24-member Senate. In the House, administration candidates are expected to corner about 75% of the seats.

Such a triumph should make any government rule with confidence. But it also raises the prospect of an embittered opposition, feeling deprived of a forum in Congress, driven to unruly protest in the streets or, worse, to the dark and smoky rooms of conspiracy.

It does not give the administration much comfort, either, that the opposition is led by the volatile and ambitious Enrile, whose supposed involvement with renegade military factions last year in plots to take over the Aquino government led to his ousting as defense minister.

Enrile is fighting for his political life. If he makes it to the Senate at all, it will probably be only by the skin of his teeth. Such a poor showing also greatly diminishes Enrile’s chances to vie successfully for the presidency in 1992. For now it looks as though the most likely presidential contenders are the top-ranking senators-elect from the Aquino coalition, led by former Sen. Jovito Salonga and the president’s brother-in-law, Agapito Aquino.

In contrast to the Enrile-led opposition, the left, which is openly participating in elections for the first time in more than 40 years, has opted to take a more sober approach. It, too, is charging fraud but is still deliberately calculating its response.

Available election results have so far disappointed the leftist Partido ng Bayan, or Peoples Party, and the broader Alliance for New Politics. “There seems to have been a deliberate attempt to marginalize the left and show that it has very little following,” said Bernabe Buscayno, founder of the guerrilla New Peoples Army who ran in the senatorial race.

This clobbering in its first electoral experience apparently heightened the left’s cynicism about the parliamentary option. “I think that because of this experience, many of those who joined us in parliamentary struggle might shift to armed struggle,” said Alan Javmines, Partido ng Bayan deputy campaign manager. Even Partido ng Bayan, he added, would shift its emphasis away from electoral participation to more active street protests.

In a sense, where the congressional election provided a peaceful channel for ideological and political conflict during the campaign period, these conflicts have now intensified, with the government opponents on both the left and right talking of more radical options.

This does not mean, however, that the massive poll victory has not bolstered Aquino’s rule. On the contrary, her popularity has once again been reaffirmed. Both the unprecedented turnout and the unexpected landslide attest to a large constituency that is not only pro-Aquino but also for strengthening the constitutional foundations of the democracy her government is trying to build. It is this constituency that forms the mainstream, the backbone of Philippine politics.

The election showed that the mainstream is conservative. So while the majority rejected a regression to the authoritarian era of former President Ferdinand E. Marcos that the rightist opposition represented, it did not seem ready to support the more radical agenda of social reform offered by the left.

“The center tendency is composed of people who want change without threat and without tears and without blood--that is to say, the easy way,” wrote Amando Doronila, a respected political analyst. “And the painless way to achieve change is through the ballot. Whether the change can alleviate poverty or inequity does not matter so long as there is an illusion of change.”

Paul Aquino puts it another way. “The message of the vote is very clear,” he said. “The people want stability.”

For indeed, the sweep of events in the Philippines the past 18 months has been tumultuous. In that span of time, a dictator had been toppled, a new government put in power and several coups d’etat and military mutinies attempted against the backdrop of a leftist insurgency and a Moslem separatist movement.

Amid the tumult, Cory Aquino somehow remained, in many people’s minds, the anchor of hope. This mystique continues to baffle the president’s opponents and even her supporters, who wonder how she can still rise so high in popularity while charges mount of government corruption and ineptitude.

This popularity is largely responsible for the administration coalition’s sweep of the congressional election. Surveys done during the campaign period showed that up to 65% of the respondents would vote for any candidate endorsed by Aquino. Her continuous appeal for a straight-ticket vote in the Senate was apparently heeded.

This immense popularity can also be frightening. For one, it may be construed as a mandate for ineptitude. For another, as the president’s own brother-in-law half-seriously put it, “She might just wake up one day and say, ‘My God, I can walk on water.’ ” There is a danger that such popularity could spawn a tendency toward authoritarianism or the illusion of infallibility.

People hope Congress will provide the necessary balance. For though dominated by the administration coalition, the administration candidates remain a diverse lot. The coalition’s senatorial candidates, personally chosen by Aquino, represent a wide spectrum of views on such crucial questions as the continued presence of the U. S. military bases here, the redistribution of land and policy on foreign debt. The same eclectic mix is true of the House as well. In fact, the danger is probably more of fractious debate and even legislative stalemate rather than a meek Congress subservient to a popular president. Thus, there is a concern among presidential advisers that Aquino, who is not skilled in political maneuvering, may be unable to handle Congress. This is especially true as the administration coalition is expected to break up into rival parties almost as soon as Congress opens in July, each group hoping to strengthen its chances to make a grab for the presidency once Aquino’s term ends.

In the meantime the administration hopes to channel the aggression of the opposition not elected to Congress into yet another election, those for local government posts that are scheduled later this year. But while the anger of conservative politicians may be effectively channeled into the electoral arena, the same is not true of the ire of the left. It is in resolving the insurgency that the government needs to seek more creative channels.

In the long term, the leftist rebellion remains the government’s greatest problem. If Aquino is unable to bring about economic recovery and social reform, it is unlikely she will be able to erode the base of the insurgency.

At the same time if it is mired in endless legislative debate, her government, which has failed to demonstrate the strength of its political will in the last 18 months, could risk paralysis. If that happens, it is problematic whether Aquino’s popularity would survive.

But for now, although the situation here is in flux, the center remains strong. For its survival the center can depend only on itself and its constituency, which, though unorganized, has proved its potency in this first electoral exercise under a new democracy.