U.S. Policy in Gulf Aimed at Halting Iran, Official Says

The State Department’s top Middle East expert said Thursday that the United States is ready to protect Kuwaiti oil tankers to upset Iranian plans to dominate the Persian Gulf region, preserve free navigation in international waters and avoid what could be a ruinous surge in oil prices.

While conceding that the action could result in armed clashes between the United States and Iran, Assistant Secretary of State Richard W. Murphy said that the plan “protects our economic, our political and our strategic interests.”

Murphy said that Iran is trying to intimidate Kuwait, a tiny Arab state that has provided billions in economic assistance to Iraq in the 6 1/2-year-old Persian Gulf War. But he said the potential consequences go far beyond Kuwait, a 6,800-square-mile emirate with one of the highest per-capita income rates in the world.

“Iran is trying to use the oil weapon to threaten the lifelines of the states in the gulf,” Murphy said at a news conference at the State Department. “It is focusing at this time on Kuwait. If it is successful, it would employ the same strategy on the other states.”

Iran’s Oil Threat

If Iran’s strategy succeeds, he said, “it would lead to actual or psychological interruption (of oil supplies), causing a major surge in oil prices, global inflation and recession, including in the United States, with adverse security and political ramifications for the West as happened in 1973” when Arab oil producers imposed an embargo on shipments to the West.

“The intimidation that we are watching directed primarily against Kuwait today . . . is part of Iran’s hegemonistic plans for the gulf,” Murphy said.

The United States and Kuwait reached agreement in principle several weeks ago to register 11 Kuwaiti supertankers--half of the emirate’s fleet of oil carriers--as American-flag vessels that would be entitled to protection by the U.S. Navy. According to U.S. officials, the deal will be completed as soon as the Coast Guard finishes inspecting the ships and they comply with U.S. safety and crew rules.

No U.S. Crews

Despite their registry, the newly American-flagged ships will not carry U.S. crews, only U.S. masters.

Asked about the potential need for increased naval force in the Persian Gulf to protect the new U.S. flag tankers, a Pentagon spokesman who asked to remain anonymous expressed doubt that a carrier would have to be stationed in the Arabian Sea outside the gulf to provide air cover.

“Under the new rules of engagement,” the spokesman said of the orders to fire at any hostile-appearing aircraft or surface vessels, “there won’t be any more night operations by Iraqi planes. And we don’t think the Iranians would risk any of their decreasing numbers of planes or their remaining naval force in an attack on U.S. vessels.”

Iraq’s air force has mounted its attacks on gulf shipping from air bases such as Shuaiba at the northern end of the gulf. Iran, whose air force is much smaller than Iraq’s, has mostly used its navy to attack shipping, deploying from the Bandar Abbas, Bushehr and Kharg Island naval bases, located along the northeast coast of the gulf.

Aside from the anticipated U.S. escorts, Kuwait already has leased three Soviet-owned tankers that are plying the gulf under the protective guns of Soviet naval ships. Presumably, if the deal with Washington falls through, the Kuwaiti government might turn to Moscow to protect additions all Kuwaiti ships.

Murphy said that it is in the vital interest of the United States to limit Soviet influence in the gulf region, adding that most of the Arab states in the are share that view. “The gulf states are very much aware of long-term Soviet intentions and have no interest in opening up the gulf to the Soviet Union,” he said.

“It would be a major strategic defeat for a country hostile to us, such as the Soviets or such as Iran is at this time, to increase its power and influence (in the region),” Murphy added. “We are very conscious of the Soviets’ willingness to step in and help protect shipping in the gulf in order to gain a strategic foothold in that area.”

Murphy said there are an average of eight to 10 American flag ships in the gulf every month, each moving with U.S. naval escorts.

Iran Confrontation Unlikely

He conceded the possibility that Iran might attack Kuwaiti ships flying the American flag or their U.S. Navy escort vessels because “we can’t be totally sure of anything, where Iran is concerned.”

But Murphy called it unlikely that Iran would risk a military confrontation with the United states, noting that “Iran has never attacked a U.S. ship in the gulf.”

He remarked that Iran is having enough trouble in its war with Iraq without picking a second war with the United States. However, when a reporter asked if an Iranian attack on a U.S. ship would mean war, Murphy said only, “The United States has no intention of provoking a war with Iran.”

Kuwait, as a nation, seems too small to be caught in such heavy superpower diplomacy. Only about 700,000 Kuwaiti citizens and about 1 million foreigners live in the country, which is little more than a city-state. With this small manpower base, the country is unable to raise a military force strong enough to protect its substantial economic interests. Kuwait is a major oil producer and important regional mercantile center.

Kuwait a ‘Main Conduit’

The Kuwaiti merchant fleet, according to U.S. Coast Guard records, totals 71 ships, of which 34 are tankers and the remainder dry cargo carriers. The 22 supertankers make up the heart of the merchant fleet. According to non-government experts, the oil carried by Kuwaiti ships is produced primarily in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. These experts say that Kuwaiti ships do not carry Iraqi oil.

“Kuwait is the main conduit for a lot of materials going into Iraq,” said Shireen Hunter of Georgetown University’s Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Some Soviet-made weaponry goes through Kuwaiti ports and then overland to Iraq.”

However, U.S. officials said, U.S. Navy protection would be provided only to the 11 supertankers flying the American flag, not to other cargo ships. The United States acknowledges that, as a matter of international law, Iran has a right to stop ships carrying military supplies bound for Iraq.

But the United States maintains that Iran has no right to interfere with non-military cargoes on merchant ships of neutral nations, even those like Kuwait that make no secret of their sympathy for Iraq.

Murphy said that Kuwait is the only nation to have asked for U.S. naval protection. He said requests from other nations would be considered on their merits.

According to the London-based Lloyd’s Register of Shipping, 355 ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf since September of 1980, most of them oil tankers. They range in size from the 70-ton Iranian tug Setarah to the supertanker Minotaur, of 392,543 tons, which was registered in Cyprus. Both were written off as total losses, as were 92 other ships. A total of 204 lives have been lost.

The ships were registered under the flags of 38 countries in virtually every part of the world, east and west, north and south. Iran counts the greatest number of ships lost or damaged, 44, followed closely by Liberia, with 40. Others include Greece, with 38; Panama, 37, and Cyprus, 27. Eight Kuwaiti ships have been lost or damaged in the fighting, but U.S. officials say that figure could go far higher under current Iranian strategy.

Staff writer Mike Mills contributed to this story. MAJOR MILITARY FORCES IN THE PERSIAN GULF Iran Army: 305,000 personnel; 1,000 main battle tanks Revolutionary Guard Corps (independent of army): 350,000 personnel Navy: 14,500 personnel; 3 destroyers, 5 frigates, 2 corvettes, 8 fast-attack craft Air Force: 35,000 personnel; 68 serviceable combat aircraft Iraq Army: 800,000 personnel; 4,500 main battle tanks People’s Army militia: 650,000 personnel Navy: 5,000 personnel; 2 frigates, 6 corvettes Air Force: 40,000 personnel; 500 combat aircraft Saudi Arabia Army: 40,000 personnel; 450 main battle tanks National Guard: 10,000 personnel Navy: 3,500 personnel; 4 frigates, 4 corvettes, 12 fast-attack craft Air Force: 14,000 personnel; 216 combat aircraft Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies.