County Growth Means Big Bills in Future

Each present and future resident of San Diego County owes $570 a year for the next 20 years to finance the necessities of life, according to a San Diego Assn. of Governments survey made public Friday.

The bill for adequate water, power, sewage, transportation and trash collection services countywide will add up to $32.2 billion through 2005, with more than half the costs--$18.8 billion--attributed to growth in the region over the next two decades.

However, the Sandag study did not answer the question of who should pay the billion-dollar bills for these necessary regional services, reserving that question for a future study scheduled for later this year.

Growth requiring additional capacity accounts for $337 of the $570 per capita annual cost allotted to each resident of San Diego County through 2005, but the figure is skewed by what Sandag executive Rich Alexander said Friday were “out-of-line” cost projections for energy.

San Diego Gas & Electric’s estimates for providing natural gas and electricity to a population of 2,974,500--the estimated number of San Diego County residents in 2005--are being studied by both utility company and Sandag analysts. Possibly the more than $12.5 billion in costs projected by the public utility for the next two decades may be revised downward, Alexander said.

Unique in California

“The San Diego region is unique in California from an energy perspective,” the Sandag report stated. “It will be the only part of the state to require major new peak electric energy supplies to meet the needs of forecast population and employment growth.

“The region needs to add over 1,600 (megawatts) of peak electric power to its system between 1986 and 2005. . . . The most likely sources of new supplies are conservation and independent power projects (such as co-generation) and utility purchases of out-of-area power.”

About $11 billion of the projected energy costs are attributed to growth, the Sandag study estimates.

The second highest cost of growth in San Diego was billed to expansion of transportation needs, Alexander reported to Sandag directors Friday. The regional planning agency board is comprised of elected officials of the county’s 18 cities and the county government.

Costs of maintaining and expanding freeways, major streets and roads, and mass transit systems such as trolleys and buses, will add up to $10.1 billion by 2005, the report said. Of that huge total, $6.7 billion is billed to construction and maintenance of new systems.

New methods of growth management for the San Diego area are hinted at in the newly-released study--such as controls on the supplies of natural gas, electricity or water to the region--but an in-depth look at growth controls is scheduled for a later report following a June 19 Sandag-sponsored conference on the topic.

Shortages and congestion are expected by the end of the next two decades, the Sandag study noted. Despite major investments in roads and freeways, “a deterioration in current levels of service on freeways is an inevitable consequence of growth.” Airport expansion will also continue, but aviation facilities will reach their maximum capacity by 2005, the report said.

More Water to Be Needed

Water supplies, which are 90% imported, also require major capital expenditures in the form of additional pipelines to outside suppliers and at least five additional dams to increase local reservoir capacity.

“The most critical deficiency in water storage capacity is in the North County,” the Sandag study summed up. Oceanside has purchased a reservoir site and constructed a filtration plant; Fallbrook has purchased a site for a dam; the Metropolitan Water Department is building a dam at Lake Ramona to increase local imported water storage capacity, and the Olivenhain Municipal Water District has bought a site near Mt. Israel to provide additional water storage to serve its fast-growing north coastal area. Pamo Dam, northeast of Ramona, is the fifth and largest storage reservoir slated for the North County area.

Alexander warned Sandag directors that many of the estimates may be optimistic because, although San Diego County is a relatively new metropolitan area, some of the pipes and roads and utility lines are aging--50 to 75 years old--and due for replacement.

Allocation of regional service costs of $570 a year to each man, woman and child living in San Diego County does not take into account the amount consumers must pay for water, trash removal or sewage treatment, Alexander noted. Future studies will assess the costs of local services such as schools, police and fire protection and local roads, he said. The series of studies will be turned over to local governmental officials to aid them in controlling growth and financing needed facilities in the region, he said.