Caught in the Crossfire

A few days ago Under Secretary of State Michael H. Armacost suggested that Iraq’s renewal of aerial warfare against Iranian ships and oil installations, while regrettable, was nonetheless justified in view of Iran’s refusal to accept a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for a cease-fire in the Persian Gulf war.

Within 24 hours the State Department had shifted to a considerably less charitable assessment, denouncing Iraq’s resumption of air attacks after a 45-day pause as “deplorable.” What makes the re-escalation in the gulf fighting especially worrisome to the United States is that by intensifying the pressure on its Iranian enemy, Iraq has increased the dangers to its putative American friend.

That result, as some people in Washington are now bitterly saying, could not have escaped Baghdad’s consideration when it decided to resume its economic-warfare campaign against Iran. The main purpose of Iraq’s air attacks against Iranian oil installations and tankers has always been to try to rob Tehran of its ability to continue financing its war effort. That remains a major goal. Now, though, in the wake of the American commitment of significant naval forces in the Persian Gulf, Iraq has perceived a second incentive.

What it would like, in the informed view of some U.S. officials, is to goad Iran into an attack on a U.S. ship in the gulf--a reflagged Kuwaiti tanker would do just as well--or against a U.S. installation elsewhere, in the hope that, confronted with such a challenge, the United States would have to respond against Iran militarily. Should that happen, Iraq in effect would be gaining a major power co-belligerent in its long war, however unwillingly such a partner might have been enlisted.

Iran, in the view of most experts, is probably too prudent to engage in a direct provocation. That doesn’t rule out other actions, including the kind of “deniable” terrorist attack against U.S. property or citizens that Iran is suspected of sponsoring in the past. The nature of the Iranian regime is to respond, however deviously, when it believes that its interests are challenged or its prestige is at stake. By resuming its aerial assaults, Iraq is clearly striking at Iran’s vital interests, and at virtually no cost to itself. The cost to those whom Iran sees as supporters or allies of Iraq could well be another matter. That’s why Washington has concluded that Iraq’s move to heat up the gulf war is something to worry about.