Must Recover Popularity : Aides Debating Best Role for Reagan in 1988 Race

For the first time in four presidential campaigns, Ronald Reagan is sitting on the sidelines, his aides and longtime advisers casting about for the most effective role he can play as he exits the nation’s political stage.

While Reagan relaxes at his ranch in the Santa Ynez Mountains near here, his aides have been looking ahead to the approaching battles in Washington and planning the White House agenda.

To a large extent, senior White House officials say that they see the next 45 to 60 days as central to the President’s final months in office.

They envision a particularly busy September: The President will meet with Pope John Paul II on Thursday in Miami, when the pontiff begins a North American tour, will attend ceremonies in Philadelphia a week later marking the bicentennial of the U.S. Constitution and address the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Sept. 21.

And, with such important issues as arms control and support for Nicaragua’s rebels, the nomination of Robert H. Bork to the Supreme Court and 1988 budget issues coming to a head, one senior official said:

“Let’s be brutally blunt. We’ll know by mid-September how you play out” the remainder of the term.

“I think you’ve got a good sense in the White House of wanting 1988 to be a big year, but it’s still a moving target,” he said.

And, although no date has been set--at least publicly--for a meeting between the President and Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev, such a summit seems likely if current progress in medium-range arms negotiations continues. A summit meeting in the United States could be followed by a Reagan visit to the Soviet Union.

And, reflecting the degree of preparation that is going on at the White House, initial work has already been started on the State of the Union speech, with which the President will kick off the new year next January, the official said.

Reagan has said that, in his final months in office, he will not be a “potted plant” President presiding over an Oval Office sprouting cobwebs. And, he has added, after leaving the White House at age 78 he will be found on the “rubber chicken” dinner circuit making the sort of political speeches he has been delivering for more than two decades.

But the picture for 1988, when the campaign to succeed him heats up, is less than certain and has been a topic for speculation and meetings among the President’s aides and Republican advisers.

And, whatever service Reagan can provide to the Republican Party, his first goal--and one that is crucial to his value as a GOP campaigner next year--is to recover as much of his popular standing as possible nearly a year after the Iran- contra scandal began to unfold.

Strategic Goal

In the words of a senior aide, “one of the key strategic goals is to try to recover the President’s popularity rating. A popular Ronald Reagan is obviously an asset to the Republicans in ’88.”

The President’s aides see at least three roles for him in the 1988 campaign:

--Raising money for state Republican parties and congressional campaigns.

--Setting the framework for the public debate over some of the major topics likely to be raised in the presidential campaign by arguing publicly and in no uncertain terms for his positions on such issues as Central America, arms control and the budget.

--Taking an active part in the most visible arena, the race between Democratic and Republican nominees next autumn, by campaigning for the GOP’s presidential ticket, once a candidate is chosen.

Window of Opportunity

“You’re looking at windows of opportunity. This year is part of that window to help form the outlines of the debate,” said a senior White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity. As the general election approaches, he said, “you move more into an active role of supporting the candidate, rather than moving the public debate.”

At the moment, however, White House officials are trying to determine “the cogent issues with the public,” one said.

“Right now, there’s an issue diffusion. There isn’t a single most salient problem,” he said. “Drugs, AIDS, why do you think we’re on to those things? AIDS is something people are concerned about.

“You have to make some pretty strategic decisions about what are the hot buttons” that will catch the attention of the American voters, and then build the President’s schedule to focus on these issues, he said.

Redistricting Issue

One other area, much less dramatic than the presidential campaign, is being given some consideration: the once-a-decade congressional redistricting that will be carried out after the 1990 census--a remapping of each state’s congressional district boundaries that can be a major factor in determining a party’s fortunes in congressional elections through the rest of this century.

According to one Reagan aide, the President, aware of the central role that the state legislatures play in determining the district boundaries, may focus on what he sees as the need to elect Republicans to these chambers.

In looking ahead to 1988, White House officials have looked back to 1952, 1960 and 1968, when the incumbent presidents--Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Lyndon B. Johnson--remained largely on the sidelines, no longer players in the political scene.

“It’s eerie how similar the activities of each President were. In each case, you had a President who seemed to be ambivalent about his successor. It’s almost as if there was no one capable of succeeding him, and so it didn’t matter. These were three men who were, four years previously, dominant political figures,” said a senior White House aide who is deeply involved in planning the President’s 1988 political activities.

President ‘Cares Very Much’

“We want to avoid that. This is a President . . . who cares very much who his successor is. He wants his successor to be a Republican and one who shares his policy goals,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

In the view of Republican activists, the most important role Reagan can play will occur next spring or summer, when the primary elections are completed and a nominee has been anointed at the Republican National Convention.

Regardless of who is chosen, said one former White House aide who maintains contact with his former colleagues and with the President, it is important that Reagan “embrace him as a legitimate heir.”

The President, he said, must “show that he is comfortable passing the torch” as a key step in healing the wounds of the primary campaign.

So, he said, if the candidate is George Bush, a product of the more moderate wing of the party, Reagan could be called on to pronounce himself satisfied with his vice president’s conservative credentials.

Similarly, if Rep. Jack Kemp of New York, the youthful-looking former football player, is the nominee, Reagan would have to stress that “Kemp is mature enough” to sit in the Oval Office, he said.

‘Calm Judgment’

And a campaign by Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, known for his acerbic wit, could be aided by Reagan’s declaring that the senator has “the calm judgment” required in the presidency.

“Ronald Reagan can help any potential nominee with their weaknesses,” he said.

The extent to which the nominee will want that help is another question, however.

Regardless of the President’s popularity, said a senior Bush aide, “I think (Reagan) realizes that, for the Republican nominee to be effective, he has to be free to articulate how he would deal with the problems of the ‘90s.”

Still, he said, Reagan could in no way damage a Republican nominee.

Until the nominee is chosen, there is no expectation that Reagan will provide the readers of political tea leaves with any evidence of his choice.

Helpful With Ethnic Voters

In the general election campaign, Reagan can be particularly helpful in “going after the blue-collar ethnic voters and in the Sun Belt,” a reflection of particular pockets of popularity in previous elections, the former aide said. He predicted a more enthusiastic end-of-the-term presidential role than that played by Johnson, when Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey was defeated by Richard M. Nixon, or by Eisenhower, when then-Vice President Nixon was defeated by John F. Kennedy.

“I suppose it will still be a ‘whoopee-Reagan rally,’ but whether that would help a Bush or Dole or Kemp--I would guess they want to have the image of starting over, and not being his left-over,” said James David Barber, the James B. Duke professor of political science at Duke University in North Carolina and an expert on the presidency.

“I don’t think you could hold Reagan back,” said Larry J. Sabato, a professor of government at the University of Virginia. “That’s the one thing he’s always enjoyed, the barnstorming and the campaigning.”

But, he said, Reagan’s greatest impact could occur during a heated contest for the nomination if the fight gets out of hand and threatens to weaken whoever is chosen.

“Activists still view him as a hero, and he can stop the fight dead in its tracks before it becomes bloody,” Sabato said.

Coattails Questioned

He questioned, however, the overall impact Reagan will have in swinging undecided voters to a Republican presidential nominee--as has at least one senior White House official, who said: “People win or lose on their own. I don’t think coattails are very long.”

Reagan’s hard-paced campaigning was insufficient to tip the scale in close Senate races in 1986 and, although Reagan can motivate party activists, no candidate wants to be overshadowed by the President, Sabato said.

So, he said, “the President’s role is limited,” and Reagan’s diminished popularity stemming from the Iran-contra affair “limits it still further.”

As measured by a Los Angeles Times poll last month, Reagan’s job rating--51% approval, 41% disapproval and 8% no opinion--reflects a major drop in his popularity from previous surveys.

Fights With Congress

To some extent, Reagan’s value to the party will hinge on how successful he is in September and the rest of the autumn and how he fares in such fights with Congress as that over his nomination of Bork to the Supreme Court, budget legislation and trade measures.

“There are ways he can create an aura of success that would transfer to the nominee,” said Sabato, referring to the good will that could emerge from a successful summit conference with Gorbachev or from an easing of tension in Central America.